Defense Issues and Asia’s Future Security Architecture (Michael E. O’Hanlon) Bettina Roehr 4013R374-7 Europe & Asia

Content I. Security Challenges in East Asia North Korea State Failure China II. Existing Mechanisms to address Challenges China State Collapse North Korea III. Potential Future Arrangements North Korea Chinas Rise Failed States & Nontraditional Threats IV. Conclusion

Key Dates North Korea o 1990’s North Korea began developing a clandestine uranium-enrichment program o  violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) o 2002 admits clandestine uranium enrichment  U.S. challenger North Korea after discovering the uranium enrichment program o 2003 North Korea withdraws from NPT after it’s violation  Yongbyong nuclear facility reactivated o 2006 underground Nuclear Test o 2007 revival of Six-Party Talks  3 key parts of Yongbyon shut down o 2009 second Test of Nuclear Weapons o 2013 third Nuclear Test

Security Challenges in East Asia: North Korea Dangers imposed by North Koreas Nuclear Arsenal Selling of nuclear technology or material to terrorists Potential State Collapse, leading to nuclear materials falling into wrong hands Nuclear Domino Effect in North East Asia-Pacific

Security Challenges in East Asia: North Korea Fatal Argument: giving away to North Koreas Nuclearization without pressure or diplomacy to denuclearize Too optimistic Argument: Accepting as a tolerable development on the world stage

Security Challenges in East Asia: State failure and Terrorism National Security and State Failure affect global security Failed States are Safe Havens for Terrorists

Security Challenges in East Asia: China China reestablish position as “Middle Kingdom” Structuralist Argument:”Any time a great rising power encounters an established one, war is likely as they sort out their relative places in a new international order.” (282) Competition with U.S. over Natural Resources ( e.g. Oil) Competition with U.S. over ocean fishery China possibly attack of other countries (Japan, Taiwan, Russia) over disputed resources, would drag the U.S. into war

Security Challenges in East Asia: China Constraints on Conflict Nuclear Weapons serve as deterrent to Total War Wealth and power do not depend on direct physical control of land masses Integration into the international economy is nearly essential for job creation and national stability

Security Challenges in East Asia: China Will China Challenge a regional power? Japan (e.g. territorial issues) Might trade deficits and effects on the global environment lead to conflict? Strong economic relationship btw. China and U.S. Chinas growing economy might create tensions but not war Economic interdependency what purpose could a war have

Existing Mechanisms: China o bilateral alliances (e.g. Japan & U.S.) Anchor the U.S. in Asia U.S. position in Asia deters Chinas use of force & military build-up U.S. aims at a broader security community Reassure non-allies Low risk of weakening o Trilateral Coordination & Oversight Group Japan expands security dialogue with Korea and Australia o Multilateral global Institutions China as a member of the World Trade Organization Danger of Multi global Institutions Two Blocks of States China might risk a crisis

Existing Mechanisms: State Collapse Nuclear-Armed Pakistan Rapid Cooperation Military means rather useless ‘surgical strikes’ require intelligence about exact location ‘Caged Tigers’ Stabilize situation Large scale undertaking Lacking capacity

Existing Mechanisms: North Korea o Cooperation of Multiple Regional Actors Six-Party Talks as framework Not always successful North Korea split the other 5 parties at key issues Giving more time to North Korea to develop its’ Nuclear Arsenal

Existing Mechanisms Basis & Framework to address North Korea is sound o Strategy within this framework needs to be improved Bilateral Alliances are most effective to address Chinas rise and fencing it o Stronger coordination and better adjustment to ongoing amendments in existing key bilateral alliances o A New Security Agenda, including New Mechanisms are strongly needed to address failing states

Potential Future Arrangements: North Korea New policy is needed (Authors approach) greater economic & diplomatic power vs. nuclear weapons, isolation & international difficulties Status quo unsustainable BUT international relations, more trade, investment, assistance “hawk engagement” (others) Diplomacy is massively applied, intending it to fail Reveal North Korea as main offender in negotiations & diplomatic breakdown Easier to punish North Korea “Perry process” (others) Step-by-step roadmap for better relations Bilateral talks & diplomatic tools

Potential Future Arrangements: North Korea What if North Korea collapses? South Korean & US bilateral alliance provides basis for joint training and planning Current command issue needs to be resolved Japans restricted involvement in security alliance, regarding military operation o Role of Self-Defense Force extremely limited China important consultant o No involvement in planning and implementation o Chinas relatively close ties to North Korea

Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise Two kinds of Security Challenges Immediate: Direct threat to U.S. allies Long-Run: Rising influence of China & declining influence of the U.S. Strong & well fit bilateral alliances Healthy internally & perception of broader region Wider regional security dialogues Most Asian countries not allies of the U.S. U.S. avoiding distraction oU.S. often to concerned with global war on terror oregional disputes & concerns usually not on jihadism

Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise Chinas adapting security policy Downplay of territorial disputes 2001 bilateral friendship treaty with Russia Establishment of new Security Organizations Shanghai Cooperation Organization Strengthening of political & economic relations in South East Asia Making deals with authoritarian governments in times when the U.S. restrict relationships

Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise U.S. should take a pragmatic approach Address near-term regional problems (e.g. piracy) Address long-term goals in broadening security community Use bilateral contacts & regional forums Annual summits of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Symbolic for potential inclusion of China Short term challenges Potential use of force against Taiwan & South China Sea Overlapping economic interest Reinforcement of claim on specific regions rather than perusing regional hegemony

Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise U.S. presence in South Korea Beneficial for Japan South Korea Relations Reassure South Koreans in potential disputes with Japan Protects Japan from being singularized U.S. facilitates a trilateral network Confidence building, military exchanges In the long-term it is important that citizens support such partnership Rather unlikely that South East Asia will formalize security partnership with the U.S. Countries avoid antagonizing China

Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas Rise U.S. strategies Increased Subtle strategic thinking Using surprise to tackle problems More sensitivity Engagement in regional dialogues Tailor aid packages, joint military exercises and policy intervention to local needs

Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional Threats Create confidence and cooperation among major powers Influence traditional security dilemmas Fight poverty Manage environmental damage Tackling immediate interests may create long term broader regional stability Increased collaboration tasks training for peacekeeping & humanitarian relief, search-and-rescue exercises, counter piracy &counterdrug operations Neutral States may be included (e.g. Russia and China) Transparency about some military operations

Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional Threats Aiming at: Meaningful Military Capacity & capability to rapid coordinated response to natural disasters Need: Strong basis for regional collaboration Existing bilateral alliances present the starting point Exercises should reveal weaknesses rather than demonstrate political goodwill Existing military alliances foster uniform standards in military equipment & training

Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional Threats Japans Case Expand countries physical capabilities for operations abroad (with a certain ceiling ) Legal, diplomatic and military checks on new capacities Transparent about plans & encourage other countries for capacity building Smaller more mobile military Humanitarian relief, interventions to stop genocide & civil conflicts, hostage rescue

Conclusion No need for new security organizations Basic tools already exist Need for creative new policy ideas for individual problems More Cooperation Japans fundamental decision Historical sensitivity regarding its neighbors Devote more resources to establishing overseas deployable military personal

References Green, Michael & Gill Bates (2009), “Asia’s New Multilateralism: Defense Issues and Asia’s Future” Columbia University Press: New York Kim, Duyeon (2013), “Fact Sheet: North Korea’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Program” The Center For Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: Washington, D. C. (retrieved:19 Jan. 2014)