How Do We Assess the Political Environment? Presented by Jack Nicholl

Investigate Public Opinion Which “publics” are important to assess? Key Opinion Leaders The Public/voters Law Enforcement Authorities Elected officials Leading healthcare organizations

Identify Allies & Opponents– Assess Their Strength Who cares about this policy enough to join? Whose problem is it What do they gain if they win? What risks are they taking? What power do they have over the target? Who are your opponents? What will your victory cost them? What will they do/spend to oppose you?

Assess Your Own Strength Identify the resources that coalition organizations bring to the campaign: money, staff, facilities, reputation, contacts Determine the budget for the campaign and the coalition’s ability to raise it List what each organization hopes to get out of the campaign, and thus their commitment to it Evaluate the power of your message and arguments

Investigate the government record What are the current tobacco control policies? When did they pass? Who voted for/against them? What is the record of enforcement of existing policies? Which agency enforces?

How Your Board, Council or Commission works What is the structure, e.g. Mayor and City Council. Is Mayor elected at large or appointed by Council? Who is the Chair or the President Is Council elected by district or all at large? Is the City Manager or CEO a leader or a follower? What are the terms?

How Your Board, Council or Commission works (Con’t) Who’s up for election next? When are the primary or general elections? What were the election results the last time this district voted? Was it close? How do the committees work? What’s the calendar for the council/board? When does it make sense to bring the issue? What’s the largest turnout of advocates at a hearing in recent memory

Research Backgrounds of Key Decision Makers Election histories Community and business affiliations Family background Voting history on tobacco matters Acceptance of tobacco contributions

Evaluate Available Local Data Local data is a critical resource We need data covering the jurisdiction in which we are campaigning to change the policy. County data won’t help much in a city campaign Smoking rates, estimated taxpayer costs Retailer sales rates to minors, compliance with STAKE Act signage and SSD ban Local impact if SYNAR forces $100 million cut in state’s Alcohol and Drug Treatment programs

If There Is No Local Data, Go Out and Create Some of Your Own In Long Beach, PD “sting” records don’t make the case; need a Youth Purchase Survey In Stanislaus, needed YPS data in unincorpo- rated areas of each Supervisor’s district to be able to educate supervisors about problem. In San Mateo, needed data showing the public wanted sales to minors laws enforced; created a simple survey and Yo Mateo youth circulated it to get the data.

Navigating Your Political Environment This data will dramatically increase your self- confidence and sophistication in dealing with the political world It will allow you to make informed decisions about important campaign matters It will significantly increase your chances for winning your policy campaign