Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007 Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington

CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?

Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt)

Demolition: slowed in recent years (mdwt) Others/NK Bangladesh Pakistan India Taiwan Korea China

Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) Years

Double-hull percentage rising steadily %

(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out - an “uncertainty” post 2010 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 OPA90

Conversions to Double Hull a further “uncertainty” Built10-30, 000 dwt 30-52, 000 dwt 60-72, 000 dwt , 000 dwt (incl 6 obos) , 000dwt VLCCsTOTAL 1970s TOTAL

CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Chartering today

Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull Source : Fearnleys EuropeUS Atlantic Far EastOthers % Average

Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

Oil import by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

Oil export by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

Period contracts of one year and above No. YearNo. Average age Average period * *Projection 2007: 305 contracts Source: INTERTAKO

CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Future demand ?

India and China – growth markets

Asia leads tanker demand rise

CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Tonnage Supply & Demand Forecasts Average Annual Growth Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners SupplyDemand VLCC9.2%3.3% Suezmax7.3%2.1% Aframax9.6%0.5% Coated Aframax4.4%1.3%

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