1 Integrated Water Resource Services Gary Carter NOAA Hydrology Program Manager NWS HIC Meeting January 29, 2007 Water: when scarce, a precious resource when excessive, a source of many hazards

2 Program Team Composition River Forecast Centers National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Hydrologic Services Division Office of Hydrologic Development Areas of Emphasis NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services: deliver water resource information and products to serve the needs of our nation for understanding, managing, and reducing flood, drought, and water-sensitive ecological risks at regional and local scales NOAA Hydrology Program

3 Office of Hydrologic Development Gary Carter, Director Hydrology Laboratory Chief (Gary Carter, Acting) Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch Geoff Bonnin, Chief 12.5 FTE Hydrologic Software Engineering Branch Jon Roe, Chief 20.5 FTE Senior Scientist Pedro Restrepo Planning, Programming, and Coordination Linda Ingram, NOAA Program Liaison Donna Page, NWS Program Liaison Ken Pavelle, Matrix Support Focal Point 3 FTE Resource Staff 6 FTE Office of Hydrologic Development Organization Chart 45 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Positions

4 NOAA’s Priority Area Focus: Integrated Water Resource Services NOAA’s Regional Framework: Advancing NOAA Priorities Through Regional Collaboration This overview of Regional Collaboration describes the purpose and goals of the effort, a brief description of each of the initial priority areas, and the background on the flexible geographic framework. Regional Teams Membership NOAA employees from all Line Offices are leading the Regional Collaboration effort in the regions. This document provides the names and contact information for the current membership on the Regional Teams.

5 Priority Area Task Team: Integrated Water Resource Services Roger Pulwarty (OAR CPO) Marty Ralph (OAR ESRL) Robin Webb (OAR ESRL) Kevin Kelleher (OAR NSSL) John Stein (NMFS NWFSC) Mary Erickson (NOS OCS) Dick Wagenmaker (NWS CR) Dave Brandon (NWS WR) Peter Gabrielsen (NWS ER) Pedro Restrepo (NWS OHD)

6 Water Resource Challenges: National and Regional Impacts NOAA’s Role and Capabilities Strategies for Delivering Critical Information and Predictions Next Steps Long-term Goal for Integrated Water Resource Services Outline: Follow Water from the “Summit to the Sea”

7 Economic Prosperity (energy, transportation, recreation, agriculture) Population Growth and Demand (~1%/yr with dramatic shifts to the highlands and drylands) Water Contamination (increasing by ~4%/yr) Challenges for Ground Water Management and Sustainable Irrigation Drought Risk Mitigation Ecosystem Health Challenge: National Water Resource Impacts Where is the water, what is the quality, where is it going? How can water resources be managed more efficiently? What are the requirements for recovery planning and restoration? RESOURCE PROTECTION CONSUMPTIVE USE

8 Challenge: Regional Water Resource Impacts Consumptive Use and Conservation Navigation, Agriculture, Flood and Drought Mitigation

9 Challenge: Regional Water Resource Impacts Water Quantity/Quality, Salt Water Intrusion, Tropical Storm Impacts Power Generation, Fisheries Management, Water Supply, Ecosystem Health Pfisteria

10 NOAA’s Capabilities: Water Science, Prediction, and Services Satellite and Environmental Data –Water surface conditions –Land cover/land use Oceans –Water and biological monitoring –Estuarine models Research –Earth system models –Environmental observing systems –Great Lakes inflows, water levels, and water quality Fisheries –Ecological and socio-economic assessments –Protecting living marine resources Weather –Weather, water, and climate monitoring and prediction –Forecasting infrastructure and service delivery –Hurricane storm surge forecasts

11 Weather and Climate Predictions: Temperature Precipitation Wind, … Weather and Climate Predictions: Temperature Precipitation Wind, … Hydrology and Water Resource Modeling Water Management Water Information “Summit to the Sea” Decision Support Tools Drought Mitigation Flood Control Public Safety (Flash Flood/Debris Flow) Water Supply River Commerce Power Generation Agriculture Recreation Ecosystem Health Socioeconomic Sciences NOAA’s Role: Data and Science to Augment and Integrate Water Information for Decision Makers

12 Strategies: Leverage existing capabilities, collaborations, and formal NOAA program plans Opportunities to demonstrate integrated products and services –Ongoing and planned Hydrometeorological and Climate Testbed activities for improvements to precipitation estimates, river forecasts, and water supply outlooks –Water Resource adjustment to the Hydrology Program ($1.5M FY06; $4M FY07) for enhanced hydrologic data assimilation, high resolution modeling, and Community Hydrologic Prediction System –Interagency water supply forecasts, proactive NOAA climate assessments, and extensive drought risk management partnerships within the Southwest –Burgeoning “NOAA in the Carolinas” network and infrastructure, access to advanced estuary modeling system, and well established Sea Grant extension program –Provide integrated information and products via the web with access to GIS layered decision tools

13 Strategies: Establish Paradigm for Integrated Water Resource Services Deliver Integrated Information and Products to Inform Planning and Decision Making Community Hydrologic Prediction System Great Lakes Large Basin Runoff Models Interagency Fish Passage Models Community Estuary Water Prediction System Advance and Integrate: Hydrological and Ecological Monitoring and Modeling Develop Enhanced Applications : Drought and Flood Forecasts Water Temperature & Soil Moisture Forecasts Estuary Water Level and Salinity Forecasts Links to Ecological/Biological Forecasts Early Warning &Decision Support Tools Engage and Listen To Our Customers Hydromet and Climate Testbeds High Resolution Hydrologic Model Water Quality Model Estuary/Watershed Model Ecological Impacts Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) lOOS Regional Associations NOAA Service Offices Ecosystem Managers Water Managers Local Agencies Outreach/Communications: Sea Grant Extension Regional Climate Centers RISAs NOAA Service Offices Evaluation Measures Unified Web Portals

14 NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) : Validating Advances in Science & Technology HMT WEST - Cool Season HMT EAST – All Season, including Hurricane Landfall HMT CENTRAL – Warm Season Benefits: Accelerates research to operations for improvements in precipitation estimation and prediction and flood forecasting for transportation, emergency management, flood control and water supply. Status: Recommended by USWRP Led by OAR and NWS Regional deployment HMT-prototype HMT-West Next Steps: Provide state-of-the-art QPE and QPF for advanced hydrologic models HMT-East ( ) HMT-Central ( )

15 Applications Research Prediction Monitoring Impact Mitigation Proactive Planning Improved Adaptation Engaging research, management and planning communities: Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making Engaging the preparedness communities Integrating Tools: e.g. Drought Portal NIDIS Pilots: Implementation Activities

16 Implementation Strategy: Comprehensive Passage (COMPASS) Model Hydrosystem Survival Estuary Arrival Timing Hydrological Conditions: River Flow, River Temperature Dam Operations: Spill Levels Dam Configuration Behavioral Parameters: Fish Migration Rate Survival Relationships Juvenile Salmon Arrival Distribution to the Hydrosystem Snake and Columbia River Hydrosystem Model Initiation Model Inputs: Model Outputs

17 CERIS NIDIS HMT Community Water Modeling Next Steps: Enhance collaboration/coordination between existing/emerging efforts CMT Coordinate development, prototyping and implementation Exploit the Hydromet (HMT) and Climate (CMT) testbeds to validate advances in science and technology Implement results that serve multiple roles Strengthen “One NOAA” image to constituents and stakeholders Leverage Capabilities Observations Science Models IT Regional infrastructure Demo Potential Contributions to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) during FY07/08: NOAA West Demo Coastal/Estuary/River Information System (CERIS) during FY09/10: NOAA South Atlantic

18 Next Steps (details) – NOAA West: Demo Potential Contributions to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) during FY07/08 Prototype ensemble streamflow information and products Partner with external agencies for demonstration database, web portal, outreach and education Deploy advanced multi-sensor precipitation estimator to produce hourly precipitation grids Advance Hydrology and Water Resource Modeling Deploy enhanced water supply decision tools Produce and distribute soil moisture grids Deliver Water Resource Information for the Southwest Upgrade real time observation network. Lay foundation for future enhancements, enabling finer-scale modeling Improve our Observations and Inputs Validate long-range ensemble streamflow techniques Improve low-flow predictions Simulate and forecast soil moisture

19 Next Steps (details) – NOAA South Atlantic: Demo Coastal/Estuary/River Information System (CERIS) during FY09/10 Prototype decision support tool for coastal inundation Partner with Sea Grant program for product improvements Evaluate medium range QPF improvements Advance Hydrology and Water Resource Modeling Produce water and soil temperature forecasts Evaluate coupled storm impact model product Deliver New and Improved Water Information for the Carolinas Improve use of satellite observations in QPE and QPF Leverage HMT to advance numerical modeling for QPF Deploy Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) - data collection (Dual Pol radar) and analysis for QPE and QPF Improve our Observations and Inputs Develop and implement water temperature models Implement integrated coastal river and estuary forecast system Implement Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) infrastructure

20 Implementation Strategy: “Summit to the Sea” Life Cycle Modeling Freshwater Spawning/Rearing ♦ Snowpack ♦ Air Temperature ♦ Nutrients Downstream Migration ♦ River Flow ♦ Water Temperature ♦ Dam Operations Estuary/Early Ocean ♦ Water temperature and turbidity ♦ Nutrient Availability and Quality ♦ Predator Composition and Abundance Model Outputs: ♦ Probability of Population Extinction ♦ Annual Population Growth Rate

21 Community Modeling, Environmental Prediction, Integrated Service Delivery Precipitation Water Levels Soil Moisture Water Quality Surface Storage Streamflow Biological impacts Ecosystem Assessments Hazard Resilient Communities Outreach and Communications Global Earth Observation System NOAA's Water Resource Services: Valuable Information and Products for Managing Water Sensitive Risks Water Predictions for Life Decisions