Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

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Presentation transcript:

Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6) 1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain 2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France 3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France 4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, USA 5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain 6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

Mediterranean climate Mediterranean region = one of the most sensitive to climage change in terms of warming and drying (Mariotti et al. 2008) --> Source of predictability During the 20th century, decadal variability has modulated the climate change signal in the Mediterranean region (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012) To which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally-forced changes and for how long?

AMV skill From García-Serrano et al. (2013), AMV = North Atlantic mean SST (80W-0, 0-60N) - global mean SST (60S-60N) Skill in predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is enhanced by initialization

AMO-related predictability Observational AMO-temperature correlation patterns DJF JJA From Mariotti and Dell’Aquila (2012) Strong connection between summer temperatures and AMO, weaker link in winter

Skill in annual temperature from CMIP5 Init – NoInit after detrend Forecast years 2-5 Forecast years 6-9 ACC Init Init – NoInit after detrend

Correlation annual temperature-AMV from CMIP5 Forecast years 2-5 Forecast years 6-9 Observations NoInit - Init