Today’s Agenda Decide on questions from web board Discuss theory and hypotheses Introduce possible theories Edit instructions?

Ques. From Web Board How many passes? Circle errors versus circle and correct? What should we call ourselves? What should we call errors?

Theory and Hypotheses

What is a theory? A guide A way of describing and predicting the world (if I do only one or the other, it’s not a theory) “a simplified explanation of reality”(Watt and van den Berg)

Kerlinger’s classic definition A theory is a set of interrelated constructs (concepts), definitions, and propositions that present a systematic view of phenomena by specifying relations among variables, with the purpose of explaining and predicting the phenomena. From Foundations of Behavioral Research, 1986

Let’s look at that closer Let’s look at the Groupthink theory handout.

So why do we need theory?

Let’s say we wanted to study decision- making. So we have all of these scenarios Scenario

And we choose to test these scenarios, to see if the decision came out good or bad. Scenario

And we found: Scenario

If we wanted to predict which decisions came out good or bad, how could we? Scenario

Without theory We can’t.

Without a theory to guide us We can describe what we found But we can’t PREDICT it, and being able to predict a phenomenon is the most valuable piece of a theory, because then we can try to control it.

But if we use a theory, such as Janus’ Groupthink theory: Scenario We can see that all of these scenarios involved groups showing symptoms of groupthink; we can therefore predict that they made poor decisions.

What we’ve chosen to test TeachingVocalRepetitionVisual IndicatingPartnerDelayAngle GradingSubvocalizationRead three timesRead backwards MotivationRead out loudThree-stepStraight-edge Student- established Tape recorderComparison Teacher- established Card method Socialized correction Use journals

You’ve already chosen which ones you think will work by have a “hunch.” This is a perfectly good way to begin research, and that’s how almost every major scientific discovery starts— with a hunch. However, hunches aren’t systems. So, if we have no guide, no theory, how can we predict what will work if we test more?

If we don’t have theory, how can we predict what else will work? TeachingVocalRepetitionVisual IndicatingPartnerDelayAngle GradingSubvocalizationRead three timesRead backwards MotivationRead out loudThree-stepStraight-edge Student- established Tape recorderComparison Teacher- established Card method Socialized correction Use journals

What we need is a theory (or one or two) To predict which methods will work and which ones won’t. Then, we build our hypotheses, and if they are supported with our data.

If the hypotheses are proven correct, in the way that the theory predicts, then the theory is shown to be stronger than it was before—it has more support. If the hypotheses aren’t supported, then the theory becomes weaker. In this way, research helps refine theories by supporting them or showing instances in how they don’t work.

Cycle of Research and Theory- Building People notice phenomena. They gather information about the phenomena. They build a theory which explains and predicts it. They share their theory with other people. The theory is strengthened. People use the theory to write hypotheses. Are the hypotheses supported? The theory is weakened. People conduct studies. The researchers may suggest modifications.

Tell me what it is about the methods you chose that you think will work? 1. Partner 2. Subvocalization 3. Time between 4. Reading backwards 5. Straight-edge/card

What theories might we use? Information processing theory Reading theory (processing words) Cognitive theory

What are hypotheses? “verbal statements that specify how the variables, as defined by operational definitions, should be associated with one another if the theoretical linkage, is, in fact, correct”(p. 45)

Types of Relationship Null—which is to say no relationship Covariance—two or more variables change at the same time – Positive relationship—one goes up, the other goes up – Negative relationship—one goes up, the other goes down Causation—this is the hardest to prove

Proving Causation To say something “caused” something else you must have the following: 1. Spatial contiguity (the events must be connected in the same time and space) 2. Covariance 3. Temporal ordering (the “cause” must come first) 4. Necessary connection (the anti-magic clause)

Types of Hypotheses Relationship Comparative Directional Nondirectional