Understanding Marine Customers Troy Nicolini National Weather Service Eureka, CA Presentation developed by Troy Nicolini with assistance from the COMET Program

Overview Vessel stability and safety Vessel stability and safety Sea state concerns Sea state concerns The customers The customers Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer

Boat Characteristics Displacement versus planing hull types Displacement versus planing hull types Height of center of gravity Height of center of gravity Roll frequency Roll frequency Self bailing…or not Self bailing…or not Length Length

Boats and Customers Boat characteristics often match the weather Boat characteristics often match the weather Understanding the boat characteristics is a window into understanding the marine customer Understanding the boat characteristics is a window into understanding the marine customer

Heavy Displacement Hull Heavy Heavy Low center of gravity Low center of gravity Wide stability range Wide stability range

Photos Courtesy of Troy Nicolini, NWS

Planing Hull and Other Light Forms Light Light High center of gravity High center of gravity

Photos Courtesy of Troy Nicolini, NWS

Planing Displacement Planing Displacement

Stability increases with increasing heel

Boat Characteristics Vessel Stability and Safety Vessel Stability and Safety Displacement versus planing hull types Displacement versus planing hull types Height of center of gravity Height of center of gravity Roll frequency Roll frequency Self bailing…or not Self bailing…or not Length Length

Roll Frequency

Decked over & Self Bailing open boat

Slow Self Bailing

Length Small boats do well in big waves (swell), and big boats do well in small waves Small boats do well in big waves (swell), and big boats do well in small waves Smallest boat to cross the Atlantic: 6’ Smallest boat to cross the Atlantic: 6’ 35’ crew row boats capsize very easily even in flat water 35’ crew row boats capsize very easily even in flat water

Marine Customer Vessel stability and safety Vessel stability and safety Sea state concerns Sea state concerns The customers The customers Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer

Sea State Characteristics Important to Mariners Steepness Steepness Shoaling of long period waves Shoaling of long period waves Degree of confusion Degree of confusion Height Height

Sea State Characteristics: Steepness Steepness = wave height/wave length Steepness = wave height/wave length But, wave length proportional to the square of the wave period But, wave length proportional to the square of the wave period 5’ X 5 sec. = 130’ wavelength, H/L =.04 5’ X 5 sec. = 130’ wavelength, H/L =.04 10’X10 sec. = 520’ wavelength, H/L =.02 10’X10 sec. = 520’ wavelength, H/L =.02 The 5X5 is twice as steep as the 10X10 The 5X5 is twice as steep as the 10X10

Long Period – Deep Water

…on a shoal with opposing current

Sea State Characteristics Important to Mariners Steepness Steepness Shoaling of long period waves Shoaling of long period waves Degree of confusion Degree of confusion

Confused Sea

Wind Unlike with waves, intuition guides you well: Unlike with waves, intuition guides you well: Higher wind bad Higher wind bad Gusts bad Gusts bad Veering/backing Veering/backing Offshore/onshore Offshore/onshore

Offshore Wind Results in fetch limited situation that results in smaller wind waves Results in fetch limited situation that results in smaller wind waves Blows disabled boats away from dangerous shore Blows disabled boats away from dangerous shore Can blow manually powered boats dangerously far offshore Can blow manually powered boats dangerously far offshore

Marine Customer Vessel stability and safety Vessel stability and safety Sea state concerns Sea state concerns The customers The customers Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer

Customers Beach strollers & surf zone fishers Beach strollers & surf zone fishers Casual swimmers Casual swimmers Surfers and divers Surfers and divers Ultra small boat mariners (kayakers, etc) Ultra small boat mariners (kayakers, etc) Sport fishermen and women Sport fishermen and women Recreational sailors and motorboaters Recreational sailors and motorboaters Commercial fishermen and women Commercial fishermen and women Merchant, search and rescue, and law enforce Merchant, search and rescue, and law enforce

Beach/ Surf Zone/ Nearshore Beach goes, surfers, divers, kayakers Beach goes, surfers, divers, kayakers Concerns: Concerns: Long period waves Long period waves Sneaker waves Sneaker waves Rip currents Rip currents Tides Tides Steep waves Steep waves

Sport Fish 0 to 5 miles 95% 0 to 5 miles 95% 5 to 60 miles 5% 5 to 60 miles 5% Most are day trips Most are day trips Concerns / issues: Concerns / issues: Steep waves Steep waves Long period swell Long period swell (near shore) Season openers Season openers

Recreational Sailors Resident: 0-5 miles Resident: 0-5 miles Transient: 0 – 60 miles (90%) Transient: 0 – 60 miles (90%) Concerns / issues: Concerns / issues: Steep Waves Steep Waves Confused Seas Confused Seas Wind Wind Gusts Gusts Shifting Shifting

Photo Courtesy of Troy Nicolini, NWS

Commercial Fishers 0 – high seas (90% 0-20 miles) 0 – high seas (90% 0-20 miles) Wide range of boats: Wide range of boats: Troller (salmon and tuna) Troller (salmon and tuna) Long line Long line Trawler (dragger) and seiner Trawler (dragger) and seiner Pot fishing (crab, lobster, shrimp) Pot fishing (crab, lobster, shrimp) High seas tuna (troll, bait, net) High seas tuna (troll, bait, net) Same concerns as others, with long range planning issues (time and space) Same concerns as others, with long range planning issues (time and space) Derby fisheries Derby fisheries

Merchant /Search & Rescue /Law Enforcement 0-high seas 0-high seas Concerns Concerns Merchant: economics Merchant: economics Search and rescue: operations and locating the subject of their search Search and rescue: operations and locating the subject of their search

Marine Customer Vessel stability and safety Vessel stability and safety Sea state concerns Sea state concerns The customers The customers Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer Examples of improving products/services through knowing the customer

Examples: Wave Selection Waves present: Waves present: 10’ X 20 second swell 10’ X 20 second swell 6’ X 5 second swell 6’ X 5 second swell 3’ wind wave 3’ wind wave 6’ fresh swell is wave of concern in deep water 6’ fresh swell is wave of concern in deep water

Examples: Wave Selection Waves present: Waves present: 10’ X 20 second swell 10’ X 20 second swell 6’ X 5 second swell 6’ X 5 second swell 3’ wind wave 3’ wind wave Combining swell heights gives ~12 feet Combining swell heights gives ~12 feet

Examples: Wave Selection Swells present: Swells present: 10’ X 20 second swell 10’ X 20 second swell 6’ X 5 second swell 6’ X 5 second swell Combined swell = 12 feet Combined swell = 12 feet 12’ X 20 sec. implies no steepness concern 12’ X 20 sec. implies no steepness concern 12’ X 5 sec. implies no shoaling concern 12’ X 5 sec. implies no shoaling concern 12’ X 13 sec. is meaningless 12’ X 13 sec. is meaningless

Examples: Wave Selection Sport fisher: 12’ X 5 sec. implies no refraction concern, which means that an area under a headland should be safe, with no shoaling concern. 12’ X 5 sec. implies no refraction concern, which means that an area under a headland should be safe, with no shoaling concern. 12’ X 20 sec. implies that conditions will be safe in deep water 12’ X 20 sec. implies that conditions will be safe in deep water

Example: Swell Period Problem: term “swell” implies “not steep” but fresh swell can be very steep Problem: term “swell” implies “not steep” but fresh swell can be very steep Solution: Include swell period in forecast Solution: Include swell period in forecast Mariners appreciate extra information Mariners appreciate extra information Surfers also happy Surfers also happy Another solution: use term “fresh swell” or “steep swell” Another solution: use term “fresh swell” or “steep swell”

Examples: Local Effects “Lighter winds near shore” Recall that most mariners stay close to shore Recall that most mariners stay close to shore But forecasts often cover an area that extends farther offshore…requiring that the forecast is for average, or worst case conditions throughout the area. But forecasts often cover an area that extends farther offshore…requiring that the forecast is for average, or worst case conditions throughout the area. This can cause an accurate forecast to appear incorrect to most of its users This can cause an accurate forecast to appear incorrect to most of its users

Examples: Local Effects “Lighter winds near shore” Solution: Add “lighter near coast” into the forecast Add “lighter near coast” into the forecast Gridded forecast Gridded forecast Change zones to include a nearshore zone, such as 0-5 miles. Change zones to include a nearshore zone, such as 0-5 miles. Education of mariners Education of mariners

Derby Fisheries and Season Openers Problem: Huge incentive to fish regardless of weather Problem: Huge incentive to fish regardless of weather Solution: Make forecasters aware of important dates and elevate importance of marine forecasts for those periods Solution: Make forecasters aware of important dates and elevate importance of marine forecasts for those periods

Summary Steep waves create major capsizing and falling overboard hazards. Steep waves create major capsizing and falling overboard hazards. Long period waves are dangerous closer to shore because of shoaling. Long period waves are dangerous closer to shore because of shoaling. Mixed seas create hazards greater than the sum of separate wave hazards. Mixed seas create hazards greater than the sum of separate wave hazards. Understanding these issues and the behavior of marine customers can lead to better day-to-day forecasts and an improved marine program. Understanding these issues and the behavior of marine customers can lead to better day-to-day forecasts and an improved marine program.