Energy/ Climate/ Demand Jean-Marie Chevalier Professor at the University Paris Dauphine Director of the Centre de Géopolitique de lEnergie et des Matières.

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Presentation transcript:

Energy/ Climate/ Demand Jean-Marie Chevalier Professor at the University Paris Dauphine Director of the Centre de Géopolitique de lEnergie et des Matières Premières (CGEMP), University Paris Dauphine Senior Associate at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS- CERA) CRE June 9, 2009

2 The Message Any energy issue is now closely associated with the global warming issue Serious doubts about the evolution of energy demand The generalization of uncertainties and interdependences The investment decision making process is more complex Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières

3

4 Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates; Data source: European Commission. CAGR 2.3% 1.7% 0.85% 0.5% - 1% Required total energy efficiency improvement of 2.7% per year 2020 efficiency goal Included in Commission business as usual (BAU) baseline Exajoules* *1 Exajoule corresponds to 0.95 quadrillion Btu. The EU 2020 Energy Efficiency Target: Potential Impact on Energy demand

5 The European Gas Demand 2030: a wide range of uncertainties (1) Note: Europe = EU27, Switzerland, Norway, Balkan countries and Turkey Power Range: 160 Bcm Demand Range: 280 Bcm Majority of uncertainty from power sector Power Generation Total Demand Increasing gas demand is no longer a predetermined element Low power demand growth High renewables, Post 2020: nuclear, CC&S Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS- CERA), 2009

6 Incremental change in gas demand by 2030 (bcm) The European Gas Demand 2030 (2) Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS- CERA), 2009 Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières

7 Uncertainties and Interdependences: the Case of Gas Demand The structure of economic recession and recovery Improvement of energy efficiency (esp. buildings) Development of renewables Reduction of GHG emissions Raise and fall of nuclear capacities The development of unconventional gas The global LNG market Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières

8 Investments for the Future Corporate decision amidst uncertainties = risk Regulatory incentives The need for public planning? The Ten Years planning process The risk of overcapacity (socialisation of cost ?) The need for greater cooperation between players Persisting Price volatility Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières

9 The New European Institutional Dynamic EuropeanParliament Commission DG TREN DG COMP DG Environment ENTSOs ACER The Council Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS- CERA), 2009

10 Annex Centre de Géopolitique de lÉnergie et des Matières Premières Source: Nouvel Observateur, Mai 2009