Charlie Cook House Update: Top Dem. Recruits in CO and WI Contributors: Charlie Cook Editor and Publisher, The Cook Political Report David Wasserman House Editor, The Cook Political Report April 8, 2016 Producer: Ben Booker Edited by: Katharine Conlon Director: Afzal Bari

1 Dem Favorite State Sen. Gail Schwartz Decides to Run, But Needs to Increase Dem Turnout to Beat Rep. Tipton (R) Colorado 3 rd Congressional District Colorado 3 rd District: (Western Slope: Grand Junction, Pueblo)-Rep. Scott Tipton (R) New Rating: Lean Republican Democrats landed their top potential challenger to Tipton this week with former state Sen. Gail Schwartz's decision to run. The 3rd CD leans Republican - it gave President Obama 46 percent in but Schwartz won a partisan race for the state board of regents from the 3rd CD in 2000 and twice won a battleground state senate district in 2006 and Colorado's Western Slope is tricky political territory: the 3rd CD includes conservative ranch towns, liberal resort towns like Aspen and Telluride, and the heavily Hispanic city of Pueblo. The last Democrat to represent this seat, John Salazar, was a moderate, Hispanic rancher. Tipton, a pottery company owner, hails from ranch country. Schwartz's challenge may be that she has mostly lived near Aspen. Still, the three-term Tipton must be wary of the possibility that a polarizing GOP presidential nominee could awaken core Democratic voters in a district that is 25 percent Latino. Tipton begins with the edge, but this race should be competitive. Source: David Wasserman, “Top Democratic Recruits Prompt Ratings Changes in CO-03 and WI-08,“ The Charlie Cook Political Report, April 8, April 8, 2016| Ben Booker DETAILED DISTRICT BREAKDOWN

2 Democrat’s Top Pick Tom Nelson Announces His Run For Open WI-08 District Turning Race Into a Tossup Wisconsin 8 th Congressional District Source: David Wasserman, “House Republicans Staring Into the Abyss: 10 Ratings Changes Favor Democrats,“ The Charlie Cook Political Report, March 18, April 8, 2016| Ben Booker DETAILED DISTRICT BREAKDOWN Wisconsin 8 th District: (Northeast: Green Bay, Appleton)-OPEN (Ribble) (R) New Rating: Toss Up Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson's decision to run for this open seat created by GOP Rep. Reid Ribble's retirement is a big coup for Democrats. Nelson is viewed as a rising star; the 40 year old served in the state Assembly before running unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in In 2011, he was elected to the top position in a swing county that makes up 25 percent of the 8th CD. Meanwhile, Republicans are already seeking to brand Nelson "Tax Hike Tommy," but they're headed for a competitive August primary between Iraq veteran Mike Gallagher, who served as a foreign policy adviser to Gov. Scott Walker's presidential campaign, and conservative state Sen. Frank Lasee. Gallagher is regarded as having the support of Walker's political apparatus. This Green Bay district leans just slightly Republican; it gave President Obama 47 percent in 2012 after giving him 54 percent in But it has demonstrated a tendency to blow with the national winds; it's switched parties four times in the past two decades. If Republicans nominate a polarizing presidential nominee and Democrat Russ Feingold is beating GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, this seat could easily fall too.