Slide 1 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet Operational Forecast System (CIOFS) Quarterly Management Review Phase 1Phase 2Phase 3Phase 4Phase 5Phase 6 ConceptFeasibilityPlanningDev & TestTrans/DelClosure Original (Nov-10) N/A Nov-10 Sep-11Jan-12Mar-12 Quarterly Review (Jun-12)Feb-13Apr-13Dec-13 Quarterly Review (Sep-12)May-13Jul-13Feb-14 Quarterly Review (Jan-13)Aug-13Sep-13Feb-14 Update (Mar-13)Aug-13Sep-13Feb-14 Quarterly Review (Jul-13)Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15 Quarterly Review (Nov-13)Dec-14Jun-15Aug-15 Quarterly Review (Feb-14)Sep-15Mar-16May-16 Quarterly Review (Sep-14)May-15 Mar-16 Quarterly Review (Dec-14)May-15 Mar-16 Quarterly Review (Mar-15)Nov-15 Aug-16 Quarterly Review (Jun-15)Nov-15 Aug-16 Quarterly Review (Sep-15)Mar-16 Dec-16

Slide 2 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet OFS Project Overview Project Description ● ROMS model OFS developed to forecast water elevations, currents, temperature and salinity for Cook Inlet, AK region. ● Additional deliverables: Marine hydrokinetic energy metrics Digital Elevation Model, data and software/tools Project Team ● CSDL: Lyon Lanerolle (Project Manager) ● CO-OPS: Aijun Zhang (Operations) Measure of Success Meet NOS skill assessment criteria for water elevations, currents, temperature and salinity model predictions Provide useful/adaptable tools to identified user community Develop and provide useful metrics for marine hydrokinetic energy Accessible to user community Stakeholders ● Champion - CSDL, CO-OPS ● Owner - CSDL ● Internal Customers - VDatum Program ● External Customers - CO-OPS; Marine navigation community, AOOS, IOOS, ORR/HAZMAT, AK Energy Authority (AEA), ecological community, recreational users ● End-users - CO-OPS ● Suppliers - OCS, USGS, NGS, NWS, AEA, AOOS, Dynalysis

Slide 3 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Completed Hindcast-1 extension simulation to generate spun-up initial conditions:  Rutgers suggested ice suppression algorithm continued to function correctly  Simulation tested model’s ability to handle extreme rainfall event in September 2012 Completed re-run and skill assessment of Hindcast-1 with spun-up initial conditions:  Re-run done to address whether model suffers from spin-up issues  Significant improvement in S predictions (WL, currents same) → spin-up issue is real! Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 1

Slide 4 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Completed & skill assessed Hindcast-1 simulation with ROMS version 766:  New version numerically more stable than older versions  New version generates predictions of similar skill to older versions Acquired USGS data, QA/QC’ed them and generated river forcing for Hindcast-2 Continuing to work with CSDL technicians on acquiring other Hindcast-2 forcing data, QA/QC’ing them, archiving them and preparing for model forcing generation Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 2

Slide 5 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Expected Results in Next Quarter: Continue to acquire and QA/QC model forcing and evaluation datasets for Hindcast-2 Generate open boundary & meteorological model forcing for Hindcast-2 simulation Complete alternate tasks while awaiting forcing data from CDSL technicians * :  Run & skill assess CIOFS Hindcast-2 with observed sub-tidal water levels & climatological temperature, salinity open boundary forcing (in place of G-RTOFS) → to assess the veracity of G-RTOFS as a source for open boundary forcing OR  Write CIOFS final report – part I (model development and skill assessment) * Management decision needed Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results

Slide 6 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet OFS Risks, Issues, Possible Mitigation Risk Probability Impact Mitigation Low quality bathy & VDatum in upper CI Medium ? WL, Current SA show model is OK Better bathy & Vdatum in future when Vdatum for AK is achieved/ Publish re-meaned WL Lack of CPU hours on Jet due to allocation limit Medium/High HighBuild-in additional time into schedule Delay in getting forcing data (Technicians’ time & data post-processing speed) High Complete other related tasks (HC-2 with climatology, final report – part I)

Slide 7 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet OFS Schedule, Current Phase Development & TestingEstimated DurationPlanned Completion DateActual Compl. Date Tides w/o wetting/drying3 months4/1/12 Add DEM, tides with wetting/drying and add nests4 months8/1/128/20/2012 Hindcast 1 for 6/11-8/ to 3 months10/2/12 11/1/12 2/15/133/31/13 Testing new improved grid (Tides and Hindcast-1)6 months 11/1/13 1/1/14 9/1/14 11/1/14 1/15/15 * Additional Hindcast-1 testing (ICs, W/D debug, CPPs)2 months1/1/153/1/15 Additional ROMS testing (Rutgers suggested T-S nudging & ice suppression, backward comp. of ROMS trunk code, etc.) 2 months5/1/15 Compiling model forcing & evaluation data (especially T,S)2 months7/1/15 Hindcast-2 for months 3/1/14 5/1/14 2/1/15 4/15/15 10/15/15 02/15/16 Complete Hindcast-2 analysis1 month 5/1/14 7/1/14 4/1/15 5/15/15 11/15/15 03/15/16 Transition to CO-OPSEstimated DurationPlanned Completion DateActual Compl. Date Deliver model system to CO-OPS0.5 months 7/1/14 9/1/14 6/1/15 12/1/15 4/1/16 CIOFS Production Implementation9 months 4/1/15 6/1/15 3/1/16 9/1/16 1/1/17 * Interrupted/Delayed due to Wetting/Drying ROMS code bug (later fixed by Rutgers University)