An emerging power or just an emerging market? China: global perspective Amanda Ferraboli, Amira Ferraboli, Raphael Abreu, Tainan Santos IRI Undergraduate Students Sao Paulo, March 28 th, 2016

1.China’s behavior on the global scenario 2.Perceptions of China 3.Constraints on China’s actions 4.Policy Recommendations for country’s consolidation Presentation

1.China’s behavior on the global scenario

Relies heavily on economic and military power Internal consequences > external consequences Internal outcomes: maintain sovereignty External outcomes: development aid, FDI Normative and cultural power are used to preserve status quo limited influence limited range soft power China’s behavior on the global scenario

Power Military Structural (Norms) CulturalEconomic

China’s behavior on the global scenario “We reject the notion that Chinese leaders have formulated any elaborated “game plan” about hot to use their growing power to reconstitute the global political or economic system. Their goals are built on a conception of national long-term self-interest that is embedded in a historical and cultural context. Reich and Lebow, 2014

2.Perceptions of China

Shaun’s four perceptions of China’s place in the international order. Developing country socio-economic problems alliances with other developing countries Emerging power shared perception of under-representation > global reform BRICS, SCO China has its global power and global responsibility UN Security Council has power to decide on (or veto) the norms and principles Quasi-superpower status creates expectations on China’s behavior Perceptions of China

Chinese economic growth consequences On developed countries growing merchandise trade (sum of exports and imports) 1990: 2% > 2000: 4% > 2010: 10% growing US trade deficit with China 2000: - U$83,833.0 mi > 2012: - U$315,053.5 mi growing trade with Europe China was a major buyer of European bonds (custodian role) total investment of $ billions

Chinese economic growth consequences Latin America Relationship based on free trade and growth. BRICS China used its power in IMF to advocate changes in the institution according to BRICS’ proposals. BRICS Bank (NDB). Perceptions of China

Chinese economic growth consequences On developing countries (except Asia) Saudi Arabia Brazil Angola FOCAC (Forum on China-Africa Cooperation) FOCAC South-South & Global Cooperation (UNDP) South-South & Global Cooperation Perceptions of China

[…] It argues that those who emphasize the positive economic impacts of China have been over-optimistic and underplay some of the negative impacts associated with Chinese competition in manufacturing and increasing Latin American specialization in primary products […] Rhys Jenkins, Cambridge University Press, 2010 Perceptions of China

3. Constraints on China’s actions

Constraints on China’s actions Human Rights

Constraints on China’s actions Social Behavior Labour movements Strikes Influence of Occidentalism (Suzuki)

Constraints on China’s actions Economic Growth

Constraints on China’s actions Economic Growth

Constraints on China’s actions Environmental Issues Poor reputation on environmental issues Aversion to international obligations World’s largest greenhouse gas emitter CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Statistics: Mt CO2 (World: Mt CO2)> approximately 26% of total Public demand for better climate change and pollution related policies Political legitimacy of Communist Party relies on growth

Constraints on China’s actions Environmental Issues

4. Policy Recommendations

Policy Recommendations Emerging market or emerging power? China is an emerging market but to what extent can it sustain a global power status… 2 options: 1)Confrontation and change the current global order 2)Adequate to the global order

Policy Recommendations 9 impulses that suggest precaution (4) or a more proactive behavior of China(5) (Shaun) Precaution realms China Threat argument China could be seen as turning its back to its developing fellow states China does not want to be a minor player (E.g. G8). The country should be careful about how alternative groups may be received by other players Global power=global responsibilities. Is China ready?

Policy Recommendations 9 impulses that suggest precaution (4) or a more proactive behavior of China(5) (Shaun) Active performance realm Answer to Chinese people expectations Sphere of influence of China in which external actors cannot influence. China’s peaceful rise will not change Diplomatic activism to meet national interest China needs to take on global roles according to its size and power Right time to change global order with dissatisfied countries

Thank you Q&A

Policy Recommendations Environmental Recommendations Stronger approach on environmental section of its five year plan Stronger relations between provincial and central government Focused state-owned Enterprises