Regulatory frameworks and safeguards: Comparative models for reform The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership. The author can contacted by at Dr Tim Kelly, Head, Strategy & Policy Unit, “OECD Global Conference on Telecoms Policy for the Digital Economy” Dubai, January 2002

International Telecommunication Union 2 Agenda Policy evaluation  Looking back on 20 years of telecom reform  What worked, what did not? Comparative case studies of telecom reform  Chile / Argentina: privatisation, with and without competition  Thailand / Philippines: Private sector participation, with and without competition  Hongkong SAR / Singapore: Early competition and late competition For more information ….  ITU country case studies programme

International Telecommunication Union 3 20-year reform retrospective 20 years ago, AT&T formally agreed to the break-up of the Bell System (8/1/82) 10 years ago, around 10 countries had some measure of fixed-line competition 5 years ago, in concluding the WTO basic telecoms agreement, some 70 countries committed to telecoms market liberalisation Now, countries with privatized operators and some degree of competition are in majority among ITU Member States

International Telecommunication Union 4 Two decades of privatisations '000 10'000 15'000 20'000 25'000 30'000 35'000 40'000 45'000 50' Value of privatisations, of public telecom operators (US$m) Number of privatisations in year Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report, 2002 (forthcoming).

International Telecommunication Union 5 Increasing competition Local Long distance International Countries Note: Includes commitments to introduce competition. Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

International Telecommunication Union 6 Creating independent regulators Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

International Telecommunication Union 7 Top 10 performers, by total teledensity rank Note: Based on total teledensity (fixed lines plus mobile subscribers, per 100 inhabitants). Shows top ten ITU Member States in terms of improvement in ranking, Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

International Telecommunication Union 8 Comparative case studies 1: Teledensity in Chile and Argentina : Privatisation and competition in Chile 1990: Privatisation with 7 year exclusivity in Argentina Exclusivity period extended by 3 years Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report, 2002 (forthcoming).

International Telecommunication Union 9 Comparative case studies 2: Fixed network growth in Philippines and Thailand Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report, 2002 (forthcoming). 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Thailand: Franchising gives an initial boost to network growth rates... … but lack of longer-term incentives lead to slower growth Philippines: Special areas scheme grants international licences in return for commitment to invest... … but investment priorities shift to mobile

International Telecommunication Union 10 Comparative case studies 3: Mobile density in Hongkong and Singapore Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report, 2002 (forthcoming).

International Telecommunication Union 11 Getting the recipe right Three essential ingredients:  Competition  Private sector participation  Independent regulation A few sandwiches short of the full picnic …  Privatisation without competition E.g., Argentina, Singapore, South Africa  Competition without private sector participation E.g., China, Viet Nam  Privatisation and competition without regulation E.g., New Zealand  Regulation without independence E.g, India, Thailand

International Telecommunication Union 12 ITU country case studies Internet diffusion studies  ASEAN, Bolivia, Egypt, Hungary, Nepal, Uganda Broadband  Australia, Italy, Malaysia, South Africa 3G Mobile  China, Chile, Ghana, Hongkong SAR, Japan, Venezuela IP Telephony  Canada, Colombia, China, Korea, Peru, Thailand Effective regulation  Botswana, Brazil, Morocco, Peru, Singapore