PRESENTATION TITLE Presented by: Name Surname Directorate Date Planning for our water security Presented by: Tendayi Makombe Engineer ( Water Resource Planning) Chief Directorate: Integrated Water Resource Planning Venue: Randwater Date 15 June 2016

Water Resource Planning : Framework

Population perspective 52 million people (2013) 14,5 million Households Living in formal cities, traditional villages and informal settlements 62% urban and 38% rural Major social challenges (poverty, equity and job creation)

South Africa: Water Scarce Country Water a scarce and strategic resource Spatial and temporal challenges Fresh its limit Mean annual rainfall – South Africa=500mm (World = 860mm) – 65% of SA <500mm – 21% of SA<200mm – Climate change Severe and prolonged droughts – 10 years – 25% - drained by perennial rivers (seasonal) – 75% - drained by seasonal to episodic rivers (event related).

Current water resources mix At 98% assurance level of supply, SA’s water is constituted as follows: – 77% surface resources – 9% ground water – 14% return flows – Desalination < 1%

Ensure water security for the countryEnsure water security for the country Development of strategies to reconcile water requirements with water availabilityDevelopment of strategies to reconcile water requirements with water availability Identifying and management options/projects to meet current and future water requirementsIdentifying and evaluating management options/projects to meet current and future water requirements Evaluating strategic water resources challenges including water quality related issues (eg acid mine drainage), developing appropriate operating rules for water supply systems, developing appropriate tools and decisions support systems, groundwater planning etcEvaluating strategic water resources challenges including water quality related issues (eg acid mine drainage), developing appropriate operating rules for water supply systems, developing appropriate tools and decisions support systems, groundwater planning etc Developing resource orientated policies, strategies, programs and assessment toolsDeveloping resource orientated policies, strategies, programs and assessment tools Assess linkages between Climate Change and Water and plan associated actionsAssess linkages between Climate Change and Water and plan associated actions Mainstream Water Use Efficiency ProgramsMainstream Water Use Efficiency Programs INTEGRATED WATER PLANNING PRIMARY FOCUS

PLANNING FOR Basic human needs Environmental needs Energy needs Growth and Development Ensuring equitable availability and allocation

Integrated Water Resource Planning is informed by: Legislation National Development Plan National Spatial Development Perspective National Water Resource Strategy Internal Strategic Perspectives /Catchment Management Strategies National Priorities/ President’s State of the Nation’s Address Minister’s priorities Interaction with Provinces (PGDSs) and municipalities (WSDPs) Provincial and National Water Summits Interaction with bulk water users – Municipalities, Water Boards, big industries (such as Sasol, Eskom, Mining Sector etc), agriculture International Obligations

WATER RESOURCES

National Rainfall and Evaporation

12 of 19 WMA require intervention

Water Management Areas and Main Water Transfers

International Context Four of our main rivers are shared with 6 neighboring countries. International basins cover 60 % of SA land area. Contribute 45% of country's total river flow. These areas support ± 70% of gross domestic product and similar proportion of population. Several international inter-catchment transfers and inter- country systems have been introduced (including Lesotho Highlands Water Project). International liaison and Partnerships Neighboring States & SADC AFRICA (AMCOW) Global

Climate Change South Africa is prone to various water related extreme events, including droughts, floods, All these will be aggravated by potential climate change effects climate change response strategy has been prepared for the water sector – currently subjected to a consultation process Contributions are made towards SA’s negotiation position on water and climate change aspects at international level.

Climate Change Response Strategy for the Water Sector A Climate Change Response Strategy for Water Sector guides the sector in its response to climate change impacts It proposes strategic actions that are intended to build resilience and reduce vulnerability to the water related impacts of climate change It also allocates responsibilities internally within DWS and externally in the water resources sector. It highlights the critical role that water management and water services institutions play regarding issues such as the protection of vulnerable groups in relation to access to water through the implementation of appropriate systems and infrastructure.

Reconcilation strategies and climate change scenarios Western Cape Reconciliation strategies Study (2007) Climate Change predictions are for a decline in rainfall for this region. Along with increasing temperatures and hence evaporation, the implications for run-off and long-term assurance of supply are potentially serious. Orange River Reconciliation Strategy (2015) latest draft results on climate change impacts on the system yields in the Orange and Namibia Fish. We select these systems to illustrate the impact on dams on the western side (Namibia Fish River) where the highest reduction in rainfall is expected and on the eastern side where an increase in rainfall in combination with a decrease in some areas are expected by 2060 due to climate change. See the results in the Table below.

DAMHISTORIC FIRM YIELD Million m3 /a APRROACH USED EWRCLIMATE CHANGE Neckartal97.5YESNO (BASE SCENARIO) 65YESYes- adj inc (33% Reduction) Hardarp35.5NONO (BASE SCENARIO) 29NOYES- Adj inc. (18.3% reduction) GARIEP AND VANDERKLOOF COMBINED ( 0.46% Reduction) YES NO YES

SCENARIO PLANNING

Reconciliation Strategy “in a nutshell” 22

Assumptions and principles (1) Water absolutely essential for growth and development Need for water must be anticipated and supply available when it is required Planning is thus pro-actively re-active Uncertainties – Future requirements – Future availability of water

24 Assumptions and principles (2) Planning based on high future requirement scenarios – Final implementation could be delayed if necessary – Very difficult to bring forward Reduction in availability due to normal fluctuations in climate, but also due to climate change Monitoring and adjustment is crucial

Diversify the water mix to s-t-r-e-t-c-h the resource To make sufficient water of an appropriate quality available for the socio-economic needs of the country, while still ensuring that the health of aquatic ecosystems is protected, all of the following water resources together with the benefits of WCWDM, must be harnessed effectively, particularly in already highly stressed catchments: Development of surface water resources and transfer of water: DWA is overseeing implementation of 151 water resource development projects, including projects carried out by TCTA & water boards. Underinvestment in water resource infrastructure, including underinvestment by municipalities in wastewater treatment works, is continuing cause for concern. Most large water infrastructure projects are supportive of the Strategic Infrastructure Projects (SIPs) implemented under leadership of the PICC.

Diversifying the mix …. Acid mine drainage: While the pollution from AMD is a significant problem, the potential increase in water availability from treated AMD offers opportunities for making additional water available to supplement traditional water resources DW&S is currently investing in the treatment of AMD emanating from various aquifers in the Vaal River Catchment and the opportunities for doing the same for drainage from coal mines in the Witbank area and in the Olifants River Catchment, all of which is intended for re-use. Water harvesting: While this is intended for irrigation of food gardens to improve food sufficiency & for other productive water uses, this water may also be used for domestic purposes where communities do not have a reliable source of potable water. Importation of water-intensive goods: A study of the potential for crop production in neighbouring countries which shows that, in terms of physical production factors such as soils and climate, the potential is high, has been completed.

Groundwater development and management Groundwater is a primary source of reliable, safe drinking water supplies in rural areas & many towns. Also for irrigation, mines and industries Artificial recharge is growing in importance Groundwater is often not recognised as a valuable resource by land-use planners & municipalities, resulting in poor coordination between groundwater development & use of land for human settlements and other purposes

Water re-use Public perceptions & opinions vary on the topic of water re-use, specifically as it relates to direct potable water re-use. Public perceptions are strongly informed by the general awareness of poor o & m and performance of municipal WWTW Poses a significant challenge to building public acceptance of direct water re-use Performance of municipal wastewater and effluent treatment plants nationwide will have to be improved to meet high standards, resulting in consistently good quality discharges to the environment before direct water re-use can be placed on the national water supply agenda.

Desalination of seawater Implementation can render return flows, treated effluents & brackish groundwater fit for use by a wide range of water users. Technologies typically do not only remove salts from water, but also a spectrum of other pollutants such as metals, nutrients and organics. Major cities & smaller towns located along the coast may also require desalinated sea water to meet their future water supply needs.

Cost of future supplies (URV) TypeR/m 3 Surface and groundwater (short transfer)2 - 4 Re-use8 Surface (large quantity, long transfer) Surface (small quantity, long transfer) Mine water treatment and desalination8 Seawater desalination (at coast)12 Seawater desalination (large, long transfer)25 Seawater desalination (small, long transfer)44

NSDP: Key demand centres

Reconciliation Strategies Development Progress Reconciliation Strategy Development status Implementation Maintenance Phase Started Completed 1. Western Cape and ongoing 2. Amatole system and ongoing 3. Vaal River system and ongoing 4. Crocodile (West) system and ongoing 5. KZN Coastal Metropolitan areas and ongoing 6. Algoa system and ongoing 7. Bloemfontein area and ongoing 8. Olifants system and ongoing 9. Luvuvhu-Letaba system 2011 Ongoing till 2015 Programme to start in Orange River system Programme to start in Mbombela area Programme to start in Richards Bay area 2014 Ongoing till 2017 Programme to start in Limpopo Water Management Area North 2014 Ongoing till 2017Programme to start in 2018

Vaal River System Supply water to 60% of economy, 45% of population Mines and industries on Eastern Mpumalanga Highveld Bulk of Eskom’s coal fired power stations Gauteng NW and FS goldfields Kimberley Large irrigation schemes System in deficit due to unlawful use (masked by full dams)

Vaal River System: 1940

36 Integrated Vaal River System – Schematic Diagram

Reconciliation Scenario High Water Requirement Scenario with Water Conservation and Demand Management & Re-use First transfer from LHWP Phase II High with target WC/WDMDesalination of Mine WaterUnlawful removed Re-use 80% of surplus yield in the Crocodile West River System System Yield Polihali Dam Yield Desalinate AMD AMD reuse Yield increases due to removal of dilution releases 37

Integrated Vaal River Strategy: Securing Water for the Future Eradicate unlawful irrigation, notably in the upper Vaal river area Implement Water Conservation/Water Demand Management with focus on loss management (15% must be saved) Treat and use effluent, starting with desalination of acid mine water drainage Implement the next water supply augmentation scheme

Is RSA sliding into a water crisis situation? NO if : Water Conservation/ Water Demand Management, effluent reuse, curbing of unlawful use promotion of groundwater use curbing of deteriorating water quality timely decisions on appropriate investments This is being confirmed by the country-wide water reconciliation studies ( completed, being conducted,updated)

Thank you QUESTIONS?