How ASEAN can deal with climate change based on Paris Agreement Sustainable Energy & Technology Asia (SETA 2016) Bangkok March 23, 2016

Why ASEAN matters GDP (US$ Trillion) GDP/Capita (Current US$) (76% increase in 7 years) Population (2014) in millions ChinaIndiaASEANEUUS More than 50% of ASEAN’s population is under 30 years old compared to 39% in East Asia 34% in Europe

Key Messages ➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear ➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts ➜ We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future Source: AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

Humans are changing the climate Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century Source: AR5 WGI SPM

Temperatures continue to rise Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850 Source: AR5 WGI SPM

Source: AR5 SYR SPM

Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4% 2010 GHG emissions Energy Sector Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport Building Sector Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

Impacts are already underway Tropics to the poles On all continents and in the ocean Affecting rich and poor countries Source: AR5 WGII SPM

Potential Impacts of Climate Change Food and water shortages Increased poverty Increased displacement of people Coastal flooding Source: AR5 WGII SPM

Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production Percentage of yield projections Source: AR5 SYR SPM

Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C Global GHG emissions reduction of % in 2050 compared to 2010 Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100 Global emissions to curb within next 5-15 years Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used Amount Used : 1900 GtCO2 Amount Remaining: 1000 GtCO2 Total Carbon Budget: 2900 GtCO2 Source: AR5 WGI SPM

What will Paris achieve?  Will exceed the 2 o C target  Does not involve binding commitments  No provision for penalising failure  Ignores the message of urgency in IPCC’s AR5  Upgradation of INDCs only in 2018 and then again in 2023

Source: IPCC SRREN

Scenarios of future  Multiple pathway for increasing the shares of RE across all end-use sectors  164 scenarios reviewed in the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)  More than half of the scenarios show a contribution from RE in excess of a 17% share of primary energy supply in % share in 2050  Scenarios with highest RE shares reach approximately 43% shares in 2030 and 77% shares in 2050  Several renewable energy technologies now reaching costs competitive with fossil fuel based energy supply  ASEAN region needs to attain leadership in the RE field and invest in coordinated R&D activities on significant scale. Source: IPCC SRREN

“A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures” - Mahatma Gandhi