A Rough-cut Probability Analysis of the Hawks Lottery Situation Steve Walton, Ph.D.

Summary of the Problem  If the Hawks’ lottery position is 4 or lower, the pick goes to Phoenix  If the Pacers’ lottery position is 11 or lower, the pick goes to the Hawks  What is the chance that each of the following scenarios will play out:  Hawks keep their pick and gain Indiana’s  Hawks keep their pick but don’t get Indiana’s  Hawks lose their pick to Phoenix but gain Indiana’s  Hawks lose their pick to Phoenix and don’t get Indiana’s

Relevant Data

Summary of Relevant Data  The chance the Hawks move up is 38%  The chance the Hawks don’t move up is 62%  The chance the Pacers move up is 3%  The chance the Pacers don’t move up is 97%

Technical Results Indy moves up Indy doesn’t move up ATL moves up~.01~ ATL doesn’t move up~.02~

Managerial Results  What is the chance that each of the following scenarios will play out:  Hawks keep their pick and gain Indiana’s = ~37%  Hawks keep their pick but don’t get Indiana’s = ~1%  Hawks lose their pick to Phoenix but gain Indiana’s = ~ 60%  Hawks lose their pick to Phoenix and don’t get Indiana’s = ~2%

Technical Notes  The probabilities of the Hawks moving up and the Pacers moving up are not independent  “Joint probabilities” are presented in the body of the table on the “Technical Results” slide  “Marginal probabilities” are presented outside the body of the table on the “Technical Results” slide  The actual joint probabilities should be constructed using Bayes’ Rule  However, the additional precision gained by applying Bayes’ Rule is not offset by the time required to complete the analysis  Therefore, the numbers reported are consistent with the correct application of probability theory, but are not the precise answers  The answers presented are likely within plus or minus 1%