UERRA WP2 A Hybrid Ensemble Nudging / Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for Regional Reanalysis Jan Keller 1,2, Liselotte Bach 1,3, Christian Ohlwein 1,3.

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Presentation transcript:

UERRA WP2 A Hybrid Ensemble Nudging / Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for Regional Reanalysis Jan Keller 1,2, Liselotte Bach 1,3, Christian Ohlwein 1,3 Petra Friederichs 3, Andreas Hense 3 1 Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring Branch, Germany 2 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany 3 Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany UERRA Kick-Off Meeting, Exeter, UK, March

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Objective  Development of a hybrid ensemble nudging / Kalman filter reanalysis system with the COSMO model  Synthesis of heterogeneous observations  Estimation of uncertainties

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Initial contribution to UERRA  High-resolution reanalysis data set (6 years) for Europe

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Current COSMO Regional Reanalysis-System Continuous nudging SYNOP, SHIP, PILOT, TEMP, AIREP, AMDAR, ACARS,… SST Analysis (daily) Snow analysis (6-hourly) COSMO-REA6 (6 km)  CORDEX EUR-11 domain ERA-Interim Reanalysis (T255) Soil moisture analysis (SMA) COSMO-REA2 (2 km)  Central Europe Latent heat nudging (LHN)

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch COSMO-REA6 CORDEX EUR-11 (6 km) COSMO-REA2 COSMO-DE (2 km)

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Available datasets  COSMO-REA6  2007 – 2012 finished, 1980 – 1985 started  Dataset  3D fields – 60 minutes, 2D fields – 15 minutes  Approx. 200 TB  COSMO-REA2  2011 nearly finished  Dataset  3D fields – 60 minutes, 2D fields – 15 minutes  Approx. 30 TB

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Planned contribution in UERRA  Hybrid ensemble nudging / Kalman filter reanalysis system

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Planned Regional Ensemble Reanalysis-System COSMO-REA12 Ensemble (12 km)  CORDEX EUR-11 domain EnKF (DART / KENDA) Continuous ensemble nudging Perturbed Observations ERA-Interim Reanalysis, Global Ensemble Reanalysis (e.g. 20CR)

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Planned Regional Ensemble Reanalysis-System COSMO-REA6 (6 km) / COSMO-REA12 (12 km)  CORDEX EUR-11 domain COSMO-REA2 Ensemble (2 km)  Extended Central Europe

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Planned Regional Ensemble Reanalysis-System COSMO-REA6 (6 km) / COSMO-REA12 (12 km)  CORDEX EUR-11 domain COSMO-REA2 Ensemble (2 km)  Extended Central Europe LETKF (KENDA) Continuous ensemble nudging Perturbed Observations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Hybrid Ensemble Reanalysis System Ensemble Kalman Filter Ensemble Nudging COSMO ensemble simulations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Nudging  Current operational data assimilation scheme in COSMO

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Nudging

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Nudging

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Nudging

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble nudging  Extension of the nudging method for uncertainty estimation

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Observation Error PDF N Perturbed Observation Realizations Statistics Sampling Observation Observation errors from deterministic reanalysis Climatology  Conventional upper air data radiosondes, aircraft  Virtual observations in the PBL applying statistical transfer functions to surface observations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Observation Error PDF N Perturbed Observation Realizations Statistics Sampling Spatial Nudging Weights Observation Observation errors from deterministic reanalysis Climatology

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Observation Error PDF N Perturbed Observation Realizations Sampling Spatial Nudging Weights Observation Statistics Climatology Observation errors from deterministic reanalysis

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Observation Error PDF N Perturbed Observation Realizations Statistics Sampling Covariance Structure Spatial Nudging Weights Ensemble state sample Observation Observation errors from deterministic reanalysis Climatology

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Spatial Nudging Weights Temporal Nudging Weights N Perturbed Observation Realizations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Spatial Nudging Weights Temporal Nudging Weights N Perturbed Observation Realizations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Spatial Nudging Weights Temporal Nudging Weights N Perturbed Observation Realizations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Ensemble Nudging Approach Spatial Nudging Weights Temporal Nudging Weights N Perturbed Observation Realizations

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Work plan  Production / Milestones / Deliverables

Jan Keller  Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research  Climate Monitoring Branch Production / Milestones / Deliverables  Production  Proof of concept  Goal: 5 years of ensemble reanalysis  Milestones  M9Preliminary observational dataset  M40Ensemble reanalysis dataset  Deliverables  M15Probabilistic observation generation report  M21Ensemble reanalysis system report and demonstration  M45Ensemble diagnostics report and documentation

UERRA WP2 A Hybrid Ensemble Nudging / Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for Regional Reanalysis Jan Keller 1,2, Liselotte Bach 1,3, Christian Ohlwein 1,3 Petra Friederichs 3, Andreas Hense 3 1 Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring Branch, Germany 2 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany 3 Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany UERRA Kick-Off Meeting, Exeter, UK, March