Climate Change 101

Everything I know about Climate Change, I learned at the movies…

Presentation – Step #1 Greenhouse Effect Energy Sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

Notes Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a significant role in enhancing the Greenhouse Effect because both essentially are transparent to terrestrial radiation. The Greenhouse Effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth. Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, land and oceans. A gauge of these changes is called radiative forcing. Holding everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net increase in the absorption of energy by the Earth). Water Vapor (H 2 O) is the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere, varying spatially from 0 to 2 percent. In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to affect directly the average global concentration of water vapor, but, the radiative forcing produced by the increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect the hydrologic cycle. As we will soon see, CO 2 is by far the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas, so other gases are set to units equivalent to CO 2. What is important to note, however, is that some gases have quite large affects and stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 )is an insulator used in electrical equipment and switches. Carbon tetrafluoride (CF 4 ) is one of a family of perfluorocarbons mostly emitted from the smelting of aluminum)

Source: EPA Global Warming site.

CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2OCF 4 SF 6 Atmospheric Lifetime (years) >50,0003,200 Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm) Atmospheric Concentration (ppm) Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr) 1, (ppt/yr) 0.23 (ppt/yr) Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports

Presentation – Step #2 Greenhouse Effect Energy Sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

World’s 2011 Energy Sources 84% Fossil Energy – Volume 400 Quads NOTE: 1 Quad is 30.3 billion liters of oil or X joules of energy Source: National Geographic Coal 26% Coal 26% Oil 37% Gas 23%

World 2050 Energy Sources 62% Fossil Fuel / Volume 800 Quads Source: Shell Limited

Renewables 6% 100 Quads Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy Quads By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 86% Coal 23% Nuclear 8% Renewables 6% Oil 41% Gas 23% Nuclear 7% Oil 40% Gas 20% + 31% Source: AEO 2007 Energy - USA Energy Requirements

6.3 Quads Quads + 118% Source: AEO 2008 Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast BUT from a Small Base

Ontario 2030 Energy Sources 7% Fossil Fuel source: Greenpeace

Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

All Fossil Fuels and Energy Sectors Contribute CO 2 Emissions Industry 29% Industry 29% Commercial 18% Commercial 18% Residential 21% Transportation 32% Transportation 32% Oil 44% Oil 44% Coal 36% Coal 36% Natural Gas 20% United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Source and Sector

CO 2 and CH 4 - Primary GHG Contributors Methane 9% Nitrous Oxide 5% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 2% CO 2 from Energy 83% Other CO 2 2% “EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S. 2005” United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions Equivalent Global Warming Basis

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, (Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent) Carbon Intensity By Region, (Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997) …But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are growing Carbon Intensity is falling…

The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative Carbon Emissions (GtC) Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization Spent Remaining Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

CO 2 Concentrations on the Rise (~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years) Temperature Change from Present ( o C) Time Before Present (kyr) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv)  T atm (Vostok) CO 2 (Vostok)

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -

Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

Possible Harbingers… Rising sea levels Spreading disease Shifting in seasons (e.g., earlier spring arrival) Shifting ranges of plant and animal Changing animal and plant populations Bleaching of coral reef Melting permafrost Increasing catastrophic weather (e.g., heavy snowfalls, flooding, ice storms, droughts, fires) Increasing environmental refugee

Source: and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Permafrost and polar ice are melting…

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Precipitation is erratic

Significant Climate Anomalies Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

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