El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – current and future state ENSO phase composites for upcoming winter temperature precipitation Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks ENSO phase vs. trends and other inputs Drought re-emerging? El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – current and future state ENSO phase composites for upcoming winter temperature precipitation Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks ENSO phase vs. trends and other inputs Drought re-emerging? 2

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Walker Circulation – low surface pressure in western equatorial Pacific; high surface pressure in eastern equatorial Pacific Tropical convection is usually confined to the western equatorial Pacific. Stable, rain-free weather is typical near South America. Walker Circulation – low surface pressure in western equatorial Pacific; high surface pressure in eastern equatorial Pacific Tropical convection is usually confined to the western equatorial Pacific. Stable, rain-free weather is typical near South America. 4

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Model consensus is for ONI to remain between -0.5 and 0.5 throughout the upcoming winter Sea surface temperatures (SST) in equatorial Pacific continue to reflect lingering aspects of La Niña recent decrease in SST some cool anomalies Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) currently neutral and likely remain so positive correlation with ENSO phase Model consensus is for ONI to remain between -0.5 and 0.5 throughout the upcoming winter Sea surface temperatures (SST) in equatorial Pacific continue to reflect lingering aspects of La Niña recent decrease in SST some cool anomalies Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) currently neutral and likely remain so positive correlation with ENSO phase 6

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WacoMax T Min T Neutral El Niño La Niña DFWMean TMax TMin T Neutral El Niño La Niña

DFWNeutralEl NiñoLa Niña 7F (14%)5 (23%)1 (6%)2 (11%) 15F (53%)15 (68%)6 (33%)10 (53%) WacoNeutralEl NiñoLa Niña 11F (20%)7 (32%)3 (17%)2 (11%) 17F (43%)14 (63%)6 (33%)6 (32%) 9

DFWNeutralEl NiñoLa Niña 12 coldest warmest154 WacoNeutralEl NiñoLa Niña 11 coldest warmest056 10

2nd coldest December (1983 coldest) DFW – over 3 consecutive sub-freezing days December 23, 1989 … DFW -1 F, ABI -7 F -4 F ACT, -7 F SPS, +1 F GGG devastating to vegetation 5th coldest February, but January 7.7 F above normal! Winter (December-February) temperatures mean 1.4 F above normal average max 3.0 F above normal fewer freezes than normal 2nd coldest December (1983 coldest) DFW – over 3 consecutive sub-freezing days December 23, 1989 … DFW -1 F, ABI -7 F -4 F ACT, -7 F SPS, +1 F GGG devastating to vegetation 5th coldest February, but January 7.7 F above normal! Winter (December-February) temperatures mean 1.4 F above normal average max 3.0 F above normal fewer freezes than normal 11

January 31, 1949 DFW -2 F, Waco -5 F ENSO neutral (JMA) January 18, 1930 DFW -1 F, Waco -1 F El Niño (JMA) February 12, 1899 DFW -8 F ENSO neutral (JMA) January 31, 1949 DFW -2 F, Waco -5 F ENSO neutral (JMA) January 18, 1930 DFW -1 F, Waco -1 F El Niño (JMA) February 12, 1899 DFW -8 F ENSO neutral (JMA) 12

DFWNeutralEl NiñoLa Niña 12 coldest warmest154 WacoNeutralEl NiñoLa Niña 11 coldest warmest056 13

ENSO neutral and winter precipitation - little significant correlation Of 14 sites analyzed, 6 show weak dry signal Graham most significant (both DJF and JFM) DJF – DFW, Denton, Forestburg JFM – Greenville, Lampasas NONE show wet signal ENSO neutral and winter precipitation - little significant correlation Of 14 sites analyzed, 6 show weak dry signal Graham most significant (both DJF and JFM) DJF – DFW, Denton, Forestburg JFM – Greenville, Lampasas NONE show wet signal 14

1.El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 2.trends temperature – 10-year mean precipitation – 15-year mean 3.Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) 4.North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 5.Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 6.soil moisture anomalies 7.statistical tools 8.dynamic models 9.objective skill analysis 1.El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 2.trends temperature – 10-year mean precipitation – 15-year mean 3.Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) 4.North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 5.Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 6.soil moisture anomalies 7.statistical tools 8.dynamic models 9.objective skill analysis 15

Nov/Dec/Jan Temperature Outlook 16

Dec/Jan/Feb Temperature Outlook 17

Jan/Feb/Mar Temperature Outlook 18

Nov/Dec/Jan Precipitation Outlook 19

Dec/Jan/Feb Precipitation Outlook 20

Jan/Feb/Mar Precipitation Outlook 21

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ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue throughout the upcoming winter ENSO neutral winter composites show… mean temperatures near normal generally lower than normal minimum temps extreme cold outbreaks more common little precipitation correlation CPC outlooks show… warm winter trend – can mask extreme events! little precipitation signal – thus drought a concern ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue throughout the upcoming winter ENSO neutral winter composites show… mean temperatures near normal generally lower than normal minimum temps extreme cold outbreaks more common little precipitation correlation CPC outlooks show… warm winter trend – can mask extreme events! little precipitation signal – thus drought a concern 24

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