Pierre-Alain Pionnier INSEE October 16th, 2008 The distribution of value-added in France 1949-2007 A backcasting example in base 2000.

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Presentation transcript:

Pierre-Alain Pionnier INSEE October 16th, 2008 The distribution of value-added in France A backcasting example in base 2000

Page 2 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 National accounts data now available at INSEE › May 2005 : National accounts in base Publication of input-output tables and sector accounts since 1978 and employment data since › May 2007 : Publication of input-output tables and sector accounts since 1959 (with revision of the period ). › May 2008 : Publication of input-output tables, sector accounts, production accounts / generation of income accounts by homogeneous branches and employment data since › When will these data (prior to 1970) be available on the OECD and Eurostat Websites ?

Page 3 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 From base 70 to base 2000 : Conceptual innovations and available data › 1. base 70 : : base year : 1 st backcasting : 2 nd backcasting, less detailed › 2. base 80 : : base years : 1 st backcasting : 2 nd backcasting, less detailed › 3. base 95 : : base year -Integration of a new activity and product classification -Integration of overseas departments to the national economic territory -Transition to the concepts and classifications of SNA 93 › 4. base 2000 : : base year -Allocation of FISIM, new treatment of social services, important revisions of trade margins… -> Same classifications, homogeneous concepts (SNA 68, ESA 70) -> Same classifications, homogeneous concepts (SNA 93, ESA 95)

Page 4 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 The backcasting of national accounts in base 2000 › Annual backcasting based on data converted to classifications and concepts of base 2000 : no interpolation or direct reference to previous base years. › Successive steps : computation of supply and use equilibriums for 40 products (16 products from 1949 to 1958) ; breakdown of total production and intermediate consumption between sectors ; distribution of income. › Specific issues that may have an impact on the distribution of VA : -Distinction between non-financial corporations and sole proprietorships -Allocation of FISIM ; -Computation of taxes on products except VAT and import taxes (D214), subsidies on products (D31) : in order to convert producer prices (previously used for the valuation of production and VA) into basic prices (actually used for the valuation of production and VA).

Page 5 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Distribution of value-added for non-financial corporations : France / USA Two important stylized facts : - The distribution of VA is more volatile in the medium/long term in France than in the USA ; - The labour share in France never recovered the level prevailing before the 1st oil-shock, contrary to the labour share in the USA. -> To which extent do they depend on backcasting assumptions ?

Page 6 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Distinction between non-financial corporations (NFCs) and sole proprietorships (SPs) Share of SPs in the VA of SPs+NFCs and share of NS workers in total employment Two alternative methods to neutralize the growing proportion of wage-earners 1956 Distinction to make above GOS 1970 Distinction to make above VA No distinction to make 2007

Page 7 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Allocation of FISIM and distribution of value-added › After 1977 : Amounts of credits and deposits available for each sector -> direct computation of FISIM. For each sector, for credits and for deposits, estimation of regressions between the share of the sector in the global amount of FISIM and the reference rate on the monetary market (RRMM). › : These regressions based on RRMM are used to allocate the global amount of FISIM between sectors. Impact of the allocation of FISIM on the distribution of VA (S11)

Page 8 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Impact of the valuation of value-added on its distribution

Page 9 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Producer prices and basic prices : reconstitution of long time series of taxes and subsidies Share of D214 in the VA of S11Share of D31 in the VA of S11

Page 10 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Uncertainty on the evolution of taxes and subsidies -> Error margin on the distribution of VA Distribution of VA at factor cost : error margin in base 2000 Distribution of VA at basic prices : discrepancies between b. 70 and 80 ( )

Page 11 The distribution of VA in France Pierre-Alain PionnierOctober 16th, 2008 Conclusion › We hope that this backcasting exercise will be used as a starting point for future backcastings in France. › Details and technical issues (reclassifications of taxes…) may have a big impact on the overall macroeconomic picture. › Transparency is essential to the credibility of backcasted national accounts and may help to improve the work from one benchmark to another.