Demography Composition Distribution Causes and consequences of change

Population Change (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + emigration) Crude birth rate= births / 1000 Crude death rate = Deaths/ 1000 There are more births than deaths world wide

Stats Annual population growth dropped by almost half from %-1.2% Population base during same time doubled from billion What is a billion anyway? Developed countries growing at 0.25% and developing at 1.46% Don’t forget the rule of 70!!

20 Largest Countries 2011 RankCountryPopulationAverage Growth RateArea in Sq Miles 1China1,339,724,8523,691,521 2India1,210,193,4221,229,737 3USA312,702,0003,536,341 4Indonesia237,641,326735,268 5Brazil190,755,7993,268,470 6Pakistan177,970,000310,400 7Nigeria162,471,000356,700 8Russia142,914,1366,592,800 9Bangladesh142,319,00055,598 10Japan127,720,000145,874 11Mexico112,336,538761,600 12Philippines94, ,830 13Vietnam85,846,997127,246 14Ethiopia82,101,998446,952 15Germany81,729,000137,826 16Egypt81,182,000386,900 17Iran75,878,000636,293 18Turkey73,722,988300,947 19Thailand69,519,000198,455 20Democratic Republic of Congo 67,758,000905,355 Official Census or UN Estimates 2000 World Almanac

Worlds Share China and India comprise 38% of the worlds population 3 rd US 4.6%

Fertility Replacement level= fertility number of children needed to replace parents 2.1 Total Fertility= number of children a woman will have on average during her life Projections show there will be 7.2 – 10.6 billion people by % of them will be in developing countries Acute poverty way of life for 1.4 billion people

US Population growth Baby Boom TFR was million people added to US pop. In % due to lower death rates than birth rates 45% from immigration Don’t forget US per person impact on the environment much higher than the rest of the world

Factors Which influence Fertility Rates Children as labor Urbanization Cost of raising and educating Education and Employment for women Infant Mortality (die in first year) Average age at marriage More?

Measures of Population Health Life Expectancy Infant Mortality (Best) –US is higher than 37 other countries –3 reasons Why?

Immigration Limit –Stabilize population sooner –Reduce environmental impact Don’t limit –History –“Do work Americans won’t do” –Contribution to economy –Cultural diversity

Age Structure Diagrams Prereproductive Reproductive Post reproductive % of people under 15 major indicator of population growth *** % of the population is under 15

Ages 0-14 Ages Ages Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Population Age Structure Fig p. 184 Fig p. 184

This graph, using information from the 2000 federal census, illustrates the uneven distribution of age due to the two universities in Harrisonburg (wikipedia)

Virginia Stats e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US51&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_Uhttp://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTabl e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US51&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U

North Dakota Stats e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US38&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&- redoLog=falsehttp://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTabl e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US38&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&- redoLog=false

DC e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US11&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&- redoLog=falsehttp://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTabl e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US11&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&- redoLog=false

Florida e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US12&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&- redoLog=falsehttp://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTabl e?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US12&- qr_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_DP1&- ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&- redoLog=false

Growth and Decline Rapid growth adds stress –Increased use of resources Rapid declines also add stress –Labor shortages –Fewer working tax payers –Labor shortage –Public service costs

HIV Aids Decreasing populations and threatening economic structure Life expectancy drops Lost generation

How can you influence population growth? More people the more problem solvers?? Religious beliefs The world is already overpopulated –1 of 6 world wide are in need –Increases environmental harm –Solutions need to limit everyone

Danger of Transitions Step 2 is not good except that it is on the way to the other steps –Shortage of skilled workers –Lack capital Micro- loans

The Demographic Transition Low High Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low growth rate Low growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Very high growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Negative growth rate Birth rate Total population Death rate Time Fig p. 189

Family Planning Provide information –Spacing of children and what things effect this –Birth control –Healthcare Responsible for drop in TFR by 55% in developing countries Reduces legal and illegal abortions Contraceptives (Thailand) Target teenagers unmarried, sexually active women Teaching men Birth control for men Women want to limit their pregnancies but have not the means

Abortion One half of pregnancies in developing countries are unplanned (Mr. Bair was too) 26% of them end in abortion Over half of world wide abortions are illegal Guttmacher Institute

Giving Women Power Allow them to make choices about their pregnancy future with contraception Allow them to make career decisions Pay them equally Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation –Where do you put money? Microbicides, Drugs, Education, Jobs…..

Recap How do we limit population growth –Invest in family planning –Reduce poverty –Elevate status of women

India Trying to limit population because of population problems >50% unemployment 2/3 of water polluted ½ of cropland eroded Why unsuccessful –Want male children (don’t use BC)(Pop-Pop and Grammy) –Poor need children to help out

China Cut birth rate in half from –Families with one child get… More food Bigger pension Better housing Bonuses Free education Better jobs –Contraception free from government –One Child Policy ChangingOne Child Policy Changing

Slowing Global Growth Goals of UN conference on population and development Limit population to 7.8 billion by 2050 –Healthcare –National policies –Education –Job opportunities –Increase involvement of men –Reduce poverty –Reduce patterns of production and consumption

Rule of 70 70/ rate of growth = doubling time Human population growth rate =1.3% Population in 1990 –5,290,452,000 Population Today –6,798,855,604