THE SoM PARADIGM Brian Enke (AI, Simulations, Systems Integration) Senior Research Analyst Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO (AI, Simulations, Systems Integration)

Developing a “Calculus” or... Developing a “Calculus” of Space Missions Examine a highly successful calculus Learn three important lessons Apply the lessons to Mars missions

Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion?? Answer interesting questions along the way... Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion??

W. Edwards Deming Walter Shewhart

“The Father of Quality” W. Edwards Deming “The Father of Quality” Work Effort Results ---------------- Total Costs Quality =

“The Father of Quality” W. Edwards Deming “The Father of Quality” *#*$&!^ America: ??? Work Effort Results ---------------- TOTAL COSTS Quality = (Constant) (Reduced)

“The Father of Quality” W. Edwards Deming “The Father of Quality” Iteration requires proper focus!! Japan: ??? Work Effort Results ---------------- Total Costs QUALITY = (Increase) ???

THREE PRINCIPLES... Establish basic formulas Focus on the “key ingredient” Iterate

Possible calculus for a typical space mission: = Goals Capabilities

Possible calculus for a typical space mission: = Complexity (Investment x Risk)

Possible calculus for a typical space mission: = ~= = Goals Capabilities Complexity (Investment x Risk)

COMPLEXITY: = ~= = COMPLEXITY The “key ingredient” we need to reduce? Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY (Investment x Risk)

Albert Einstein: Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex... It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.

Example 1: = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk) Will “more testing” reduce mission risk? (Reduced) (Constant) (Constant) (Constant) = ~= = (Increased) Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY (Investment x Risk)

Example 2: = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk) Why is Mars Direct a safer, cheaper mission than SEI? ??? (Reduced) (Reduced) (Increased) (Increased) = ~= = (Reduced) Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY (Investment x Risk)

= ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk) Technology Resources Innovation Bureaucracy MODIFIERS: (Reduced) (Reduced) (Increased) (Increased) = ~= = (Reduced) Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY (Investment x Risk)

We can reduce complexity AHA!! We can reduce complexity by being smarter and more efficient! Credit: Warner Bros. Credit: Warner Bros. How else??

Example 3: = ~= = COMPLEXITY Goals Capabilities (Investment x Risk) What happens if we simplify the goals of the mission? (Reduced?) (Reduced) (Reduced) (Reduced) = ~= = (Reduced?) Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY (Investment x Risk)

Simplifying our goals seems like another easy way to AHA - Again!! Simplifying our goals seems like another easy way to reduce complexity! Credit: Warner Bros. Credit: Warner Bros. But how??

THREE PRINCIPLES... Focus on Complexity (key ingredient) Establish basic formulas Focus on Complexity (key ingredient) Iterate

LAYERS! Complexity is like an Ogre... ... because Ogres are like onions... ... and onions have LAYERS!

= ~= Reducing complexity: Focus on the core of the onion... Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY

Linus Torvalds (LINUX) Example: Linus Torvalds (LINUX) Core OS Software Services External features

Which of these are “CORE GOALS”?? (Hint: what do all possible humans-to-Mars missions need to accomplish?) Safe Crew Launch Safe Crew Transit Safe Crew Landing Keep Crew Alive on Mars Maximize Exploration Range Maximize science/geology Study Crop Growth Fix Broken Systems Safe Crew Return to Earth Safe Crew Ascent to Orbit

Core Goals: Safe Crew Launch Safe Crew Transit Safe Crew Landing Keep Crew Alive Maximize Exploration Range Maximize science/geology Study Crop Growth Fix Broken Systems Safe Crew Return to Earth Safe Crew Ascent to Orbit

Core Goals: Safe Crew Launch Safe Crew Transit Safe Crew Landing Keep Crew Alive Fix Broken Systems Science/Geology Mobility... Return to Earth

So... which of these are “CORE CAPABILITIES”?? (Hint: which are needed to accomplish the core goals?) Rockets Orbital Construction Artificial Gravity Radiation Shielding CELSS Landing Heavy Payloads Mars Science Instruments MAV/ERV Mobile Habitat Greenhouses

Landing Heavy Payloads Engineering Capabilities Use the 80/20 Rule: Spend 80% of our time and energy on the core and 20% on the rest. (repeat through layers) Launch Rockets Radiation Shielding Landing Heavy Payloads CELSS Engineering Capabilities Artificial Gravity Mobile Habitat MAV/ERV

THREE PRINCIPLES... Iterate (SoM) Establish basic formulas Focus on Complexity (key ingredient) Iterate (SoM)

Landing Heavy Payloads Engineering Capabilities SoM (Series of Missions) Iteration: Missions every 2 years expand our capabilities on Mars (which reduces risk --> complexity): Mission 1 Launch Rockets Radiation Shielding Landing Heavy Payloads CELSS Engineering Capabilities Artificial Gravity Mobile Habitat Mission 2 Science/Geology Mission 3 Crop Growth, ...

Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion?? NO! Answer interesting questions along the way... Can we safely send explorers to Mars for less than $1 billion?? NO! (but we could send settlers)

Shadows of Medusa Mission calculus Reduced complexity SoM iteration Signed by author Retail $35, Today: $10 www.ShadowsOfMedusa.com Share and enjoy!

Possible calculus for a typical space mission: = ~= = Goals Capabilities COMPLEXITY (Investment x Risk)