Structured / Unstructured Market Trials Analysis Weekly Update Meeting 9/20/2013

Scenario 8 - Day Ahead Scarcity Pricing 2 Full Analysis of the Day Ahead Scarcity Pricing Scenario Results is on the SPP website here: Jarrett Friddle

Scenario 8 - Day Ahead Scarcity Pricing 3 Jarrett Friddle

Scenario 8 - Day Ahead Scarcity Pricing DA Scarcity Pricing – Analysis: Commitment of Reliability units and the way in which SPP respected their Offer Parameters. This is an issue that exists in 1.5, but is fixed in 1.6, and will be tested for such. A reliability unit committed for 1 hour (HE 13), then came off in the next (HE 14). This unit had a submitted Min Run Time of 24 hours, and this parameter was clearly not respected by the MCE. Decommitment of a nuclear unit with a very cheap energy offer. SPP analysis showed that resource was correctly decommitted. The resource had already met its Min Run Time, and the model was showing it to have a very large impact on the SPPSPSTIES constraint that was defined in the case. The SPPSPSTIES constraint was breached in this case therefore causing WOLF to decommit, due to its impact on the constraint. 4 Jarrett Friddle

Day Ahead Results Summary Operating Day 9/10/2013 – Conditions allowed SPP to find some resources with Contingency Reserve Ramp Rate lower than its Energy Ramp Rate. The software expected CR Ramp > Energy Ramp. It uses both ramp rates to determine the amount of Energy and CR that can be committed simultaneously. When CR Ramp is less than Energy Ramp, the lower CR Ramp trumps both resulting in commitments that do not utilize the full capacity that is available. –Participant Action: Confirm Contingency Reserve Ramp Rate is greater than the Energy Ramp Rate. (It is not an ‘additive rate’ – it is THE Contingency Reserve Ramp Rate.) Operating Day 9/11/2013 – Load forecast was missing for the second 24 hours of the Day Ahead solution window. Caused an extremely high ramp requirement for HE24 to HE01 of the OD+1. To meet the ramp need, many resources were committed late in the OD. Missing load forecast resulted from the forecast being turned off to support a SMT scenario the previous week. –SPP Suggests: Participants should not spend a lot of time analyzing the 9/11/2013 Operating Date’s solution. Operating Day 9/12/2013 – Day Ahead Scarcity Pricing - Scenario 8, Day 1. The extreme conditions made it necessary to commit resources for OR only. This makes it appear that resource commitment could be uneconomic if only Energy revenues are considered. Please include the OR revenues in any commitment analysis you perform. Operating Day 9/13/2013 – Day Ahead Scarcity Pricing - Scenario 8, Day 2. Again, consider OR revenues in any commitment analysis performed. 5 Jeff Fruit

Scenario 19.0 – RTBM Emergency Logic 21 RMS tickets entered for resource participation. Capacity Surplus was ran from 09:00 to 11:00 CPT. –24 Market Participants observed Emergency Limit Release notifications via Markets UI:  32 resources –18 Market Participants observed Emergency Limit energy clearing:  21 resources Capacity Shortage was run from 13:00 to 15:00 CPT. –24 Market Participants observed Emergency Limit Release notifications via Markets UI:  28 resources –21 Market Participants observed Emergency Limit energy clearing:  24 resources 6 Alan Adams/Jarrett Friddle

Scenario 19.0 – RTBM Emergency Logic SPP Modifications to Resource Data Capacity Surplus –12 resources were taken off regulation –Operating Limits  2 EcoMins  10 EmerMins –1 Fixed Spin Status Capacity Shortage –10 resources were taken off regulation –Operating Limits  3 EmerMaxes 7 Alan Adams/Jarrett Friddle

RTBM Performance Of the 160 cases not Approved, –23 Cases Failed. 9 of the 23 cases failed during a scheduled debug to address performance issues on 9/10. –14 Cases failed initialization. 12 of which occurred on 9/13 during the upload of MOS into PRD. –119 cases solved but not in time to meet approval deadline or approval failures due to communication challenges between the Market System and the server responsible for various market control functions. 68 of 119 cases failed to solve in time during a scheduled debug to address performance issues on 9/10. –4 Cases were terminated * These issues are known and logged, and SPP continues to work to improve the performance. SPP has increased the urgency of the issue even higher. IT and the vendor are spending more time in trying to determine an exact cause and fix. 8 Yasser Bahbaz

Operating Reserves SPP operated at no ramp sharing during every interval. Shortages Occurred in at least one product in 140 of the 499 intervals during the operating hours of Sept. 9th through the 13th. (528 of the 1280 intervals total for Sept. 9-13) In effort to maintain a healthy range of dispatchable and regulation clearable resources, SPP continues to address the following as needed: Discrepancies between EIS and Integrated MarketPlace with SCADA, Resource Plans, and AGC Control Status. 9 Yasser Bahbaz

RTBM LMP and MCP summary SPP continued max OR zonal limits in preparation for soon-to-come zonal requirements that will be set by the Reserve Requirement Calculator. No zonal MCP separation has occurred due to these max limits. In effort to more accurately depict LMPs, SPP further automated the transaction “True Up” process to better reflect transaction differences between EIS and IM. This is done hourly and the NSI is corrected through an NSI offset for the remainder of the hour. 10 Yasser Bahbaz

On Sept 10, LMP’s were affected while conducting emergency logic tests with Market Participants. A large negative offset was entered and capacity surplus was invoked causing extreme negative LMP’s in the morning. A large positive offset was entered and capacity shortage was invoked in the afternoon causing extreme high LMP’s. Sept 10 th and 11 th LMP Summary Yasser Bahbaz 11

LMPs were consistently high starting at hour ending 12 for the remainder of the days. This was due to shortages in Spinning reserves and Regulation and differences in AGC Control Modes. Operating Reserve shortages were due to ramp shortages and commitments. LMPs showed consistent and appropriate separation when solving for constraints. In the non-supported hours, RTBM solved with really low LMPs from around midnight to early AM hours. This is due to a lack of “Cop True- Ups”, constraint management, and lack of sufficient regulation selection during these periods. September 9 th and 11 th -13 th LMP Summary Yasser Bahbaz 12

During operating hours, SPP manually activated constraints to mirror activated constraints from EIS. Due to model and constraint differences between EIS and IM PRD not all EIS constraints were able to be matched. Large BIAS values still exist on constraints. This is due to energy imbalance in external areas. SPP and ALSTOM have an agreed upon solution that is projected to come in 1.7 release. Constraint Summary ConstraintBinding IntervalsBreached IntervalsMax Shadow Price ($) EASXFREASSTJ REDWILLMINGO IATSTRSTJHAW PENMUN87TCRA TEMP38_ ONEBANCLKCHA OSGCANBUSDEA BRKXF2BRKXF IATSTRIATSTJ REDARCREDARC TEMP43_ SPSNORTH_STH TEMP56_ Yasser Bahbaz 13

Note Worthy RTBM Emergency Logic Emergency conditions are defined as capacity surplus (supply is greater than demand) or capacity shortage (supply is less than demand). During these conditions, the logic is manually activated by SPP Operator. Once the logic is activated, the Net Scheduled Interchange is maintained, and system-wide and\or zonal reserve scarcity pricing may be invoked. When in a capacity surplus, the lowest offer curve sets the Marginal Energy Component of LMP. When in a capacity shortage, the highest offer curve sets the Marginal Energy Component of LMP. 14 Yasser Bahbaz

0.4 – Base RTGEN Scenario Results: Input Data –Tielines  At least 1 data point has been added for every tie. –Frequency  Normal frequency data is being used but the periodicity needs to be increased to 2 secs. –Schedules  RTGEN is receiving the schedules from RTOSS through a translation program. –Dynamic Interchange  Currently the RTGEN data points are not linked to receive the dynamic interchange from ICCP, so we are including the data available from RTOSS for dynamics and including that in our NSI total. 15 Daniel Baker

0.4 – Base RTGEN Scenario Results: Tieline Statistics –No SCADA : 5 –At least 1 Good : 194  1 Good: 30  2 or More Good: 164 –Total Tielines: 199  Questionable: 4  Manual Entered : 5 16 Daniel Baker

0.4 – Base RTGEN Scenario Results: Overall Performance –SPP’s ACE is tracking the SUM of the individual EIS ACE values. We will monitor for differences and report the results over time. Market Participant Activities –We have been contacting members to verify their ACE inputs and are working to understand differences and validating our ACE calculations. 17 Daniel Baker

0.4 – Base RTGEN Graph of EIS ACE vs IM ACE Green:EIS Blue:IM Yellow:Delta 18 Daniel Baker

ACE vs Regulation Regulation is deployed using persistent logic Example with no regulation reduction 19 Daniel Baker

ACE vs Regulation Regulation Reduction Setpoint vs Actual MW delta = 10 MW 20 Daniel Baker

EMS for September 9-13, State Estimator mismatch levels on average were at acceptable levels for go- live on all three days. Higher than usual solutions un-solved due to staff availability No concerns with applications – continue to stress test and perform model updates to test the system. Short Term load forecast errors were generally reasonable with a few high error intervals that are currently under investigation. Mid Term load forecast error is getting better – research and tuning continues with the different methods. Please keep your Resource Control Mode Statuses up-to-date. Tim Miller

Meter Data 22 Tony Alexander 100% of MDSLs have been successfully submitted. SPP has provided Meter Data and Meter Agent Reports for every operating day.

Bilateral Settlements Schedules 23 Tony Alexander 67% of MPs have successfully submitted BSS Contract Headers. 58% of MPs have successfully approved BSS Contract Headers. 49% of MPs have successfully submitted BSS Profiles.

Scenario Tracker – Current Report 24 Ginny Watson ScenarioSPP StatusMP StatusOverall Status # Retest Requests 1 - Delay MarketPassFail Failure to Publish ORPassFail Outage SimulationPassFail – DA Capacity ShortageFailPending Reschedule All MPs RUC Capacity ShortagePassFail – DA Scarcity PricingPassFail EDR DeploymentFailPending Reschedule OOMEPassFail Demand ResponsePass Low load High WindPass Low Load High WindPassFail Commitment MismatchFailRescheduled All MPs Reserve Cap testingPassFail Failure ModesPassN/APass0 19 – Emergency LogicPassFail CRD EventPassFail Spring Load ProfileRemoved from scope N/A Spring Load ProfileRemoved from scope N/A Fall Load ProfilePass Fall Load ProfilePass Winter Load ProfilePass Winter Load ProfilePass Summer Load ProfilePass Summer Load ProfilePass Ramp Reservation SystemPending Reschedule All MPs

Scenario Tracker – New Report page 1 25 Ginny Watson Scenario IDScenario TitleSuccessfulUnsuccessfulMP StatusComments 1Delay MarketX Fail2 MPs requested retest 2Failure to Publish ORX Fail5 MPs requested retest 4Outage SimulationX Fail3 MPs requested retest 5.1DA Capacity Shortage XPending Reschedule 5.2RUC Capacity ShortageX Fail3 MPs requested retest 8DA Scarcity PricingX Fail1 MP requested retest 11EDR Deployment XPending Reschedule 12OOMEX Fail3 MPs requested retest 13Demand ResponseX Pass 14.1Low Load High WindX Pass 14.2Low Load High WindX Fail1 MP requested retest 15Commitment Mismatch XPending RescheduleRescheduled for Sept Reserve Cap TestingX Fail1 MP requested retest 18Failure ModesX Pass 19Emergency LogicX Fail2 MPs requested retest 20CRD EventX Fail 23.1Spring Load ProfileRemoved from scope 23.2Spring Load ProfileRemoved from scope 25.1Fall Load Profile X Pass 25.2Fall Load ProfileX Pass 26.1Winter Load ProfileX Pass 26.2Winter Load ProfileX Pass 27.1Summer Load ProfileX Pass 27.2Summer Load ProfileX Pass 33Ramp Reservations XPending Reschedule

Scenario Tracker Metrics – New Report page 2 26 Ginny Watson Scenario # s Sent # Responses Received % Responses Received # No Response % No Response# Passed % Passed (of Resp. Rec'd)# Fail % Fail (of Resp. Rec'd) 1 - Delay Market573663%2137%3392%38% 2 - Failure to Publish OR503264%1836%2784%516% 4 - Outage Simulation503264%1836%2991%39% DA Capacity ShortageN/A RUC Capacity Shortage403485%615%3191%39% 8 – DA Scarcity Pricing423583%717%3497%13% 11 - EDR DeploymentN/A 12 - OOME332988%412%2690%310% 13 - Demand Response11100%00%1100%00% Low load High Wind513671%1529%36100%00% Low Load High Wind363392%38%3297%13% 15 - Commitment MismatchN/A Reserve Cap testing21 100%00%2095%15% 18 - Failure Modes0N/A 19 - Emergency Logic262388%312%2191%29% 20 - CRD Event212095%15%1995%15% Spring Load ProfileN/A Spring Load ProfileN/A Fall Load Profile513365%1835%33100%00% Fall Load Profile513365%1835%33100%00% Winter Load Profile513365%1835%33100%00% Winter Load Profile513365%1835%33100%00% Summer Load Profile513365%1835%33100%00% Summer Load Profile513365%1835%33100%00% 33 - Ramp ReservationN/A