IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Prospects of Global Nuclear Power Development Ukrainian Nuclear Forum-2012 Andrii Gritsevskyi Planning and Economic Studies Section

IAEA World Electricity Production Mix 2010 Source: RDS

IAEA Nuclear share of electricity (2010) Source: RDS

IAEA Current status: March 2012 In operation 436 nuclear power reactors [370 GW] USA104 USA104 France 58 France 58 Japan 50 Japan 50 Russia 33 Russia 33 S. Korea 23 S. Korea 23 Source: PRIS

IAEA Operational Nuclear Power Reactors

IAEA Power Reactor Information System

IAEA Current status: March 2011 Under Construction 63 nuclear power reactors China26 China26 Russia 10 Russia 10 India 7 India 7 Korea, Rep. 3 Korea, Rep. 3 Bulgaria, Japan, Pakistan, Slovakia Ukraine 2 Bulgaria, Japan, Pakistan, Slovakia Ukraine 2 Source: PRIS

IAEA Reference Data Series No. 1 Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year editions – 31+ years of experience31 editions – 31+ years of experience Major improvements over timeMajor improvements over time 10 figures and 14 tables10 figures and 14 tables Referenced in about 1200 publicationsReferenced in about 1200 publications Energy-Electricity-and-Nuclear-Power-Estimates-for-the-Period-up-to Edition

IAEA Nuclear Projections Projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. Projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.

IAEA Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions

IAEA IAEA – LOW Projection history GW(e )

IAEA IAEA – HIGH Projection history GW(e )

IAEA IEA World Energy Outlook 2011: Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear Case Source, WEO 2011, IEA

IAEA Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA General Conference 2011 “Following the Fukushima Daiichi accident, there was speculation that the expansion in interest in nuclear power seen in recent years could come to an end. However, it is clear that there will, in fact, be continuous and significant growth in the use of nuclear power in the next two decades, although at a slower rate than in our previous projections.”

IAEA Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (1) “… the Agency has updated its projections concerning the outlook for nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. We now expect the number of operating nuclear reactors in the world to increase by about 90 by 2030, in our low projection, or by around 350, in our high projection, compared to the current total of 432 reactors.”

IAEA Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (2) “Most of the growth is still expected to occur in countries that already have operating nuclear power plants, especially in Asia. China and India will remain the main centres of expansion and their nuclear power capacities by 2030 are expected to be as projected before the accident, after a temporary period of slower growth.”

IAEA Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (3) “The projected slowdown in global growth reflects an accelerated phase-out of nuclear power in Germany, some immediate shutdowns and a government review of the planned expansion in Japan, and temporary delays in expansion in several other countries.”

IAEA Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (4) “In countries considering introducing nuclear power, interest remains strong, despite Fukushima Daiichi. Most of these countries are proceeding with plans to add nuclear power to their energy mix, although a few countries have cancelled or revised their plans, while others have taken a 'wait and see' approach.”

IAEA Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA General Conference 2011 “The factors that contributed to increasing interest in nuclear power before the Fukushima Daiichi accident have not changed: these include increasing global demand for energy, as well as concerns about climate change, volatile fossil fuel prices and security of energy supply.” IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano “The factors that contributed to increasing interest in nuclear power before the Fukushima Daiichi accident have not changed: these include increasing global demand for energy, as well as concerns about climate change, volatile fossil fuel prices and security of energy supply.” IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano

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