AIM: how does a country progress through the DTM? DO NOW –Predict: what factors lead to a stable population? What factors lead to an unstable population? SWBAT: describe the stages of the DTM and identify the factors which allow a country to progress SWBAT: describe the limits of the DTM

Population Change in England and Wales

Population Change Births Immigrants Deaths Emigrants Total Population Natural Increase Migration The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates Inputs Outputs

World Population Changes

Global Natural Increase

Doubling Time This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Stage 5 ?

Stage 1 High Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1 Low population –Increasing very slowly High birth rate High death rate Tribes (Amazonia) UK: pre-1780

Stage 2 Early Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 2 Population growing at faster rate High but decreasing birth rate Decreasing death rate Sri Lanka/Bolivia UK:

Stage 3 Late Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 3 Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down Decreasing birth rate Low death rate Uruguay/China UK:

Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 4 High population, almost stable Low birth rate Low death rate Canada/USA UK: post-1940

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Ethiopia/ Niger UK: pre-1780 Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Sri Lanka/ Bolivia UK: Uruguay/ China UK: Canada/ USA UK: Post-1940

Reasons What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

Reasons for Stage 1 High Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1 Little access to birth control Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate Children are needed to work on the land Some religions encourage large families Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science

Reasons for Stage 2 Early Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 2 Improvements in medical care Improvements in sanitation and water supply Quality and quantity of food produced improves Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies Decrease in infant mortality

Reasons for Stage 3 Late Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 3 Increased access to contraception Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home

AIM: Is the DTM valid? Do Now: How do we move from stage 1 to stage 2? How do we move from stage 2 to stage 3? Objectives: –SWBAT describe the 5 stages –SWBAT evaluate the accuracy of the DTM by considering it’s merits and limitations –SWBAT accurately depict and describe a family in a respective stage of the DTM

Reasons for Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 4 Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases Reasons for Stage 3 have improved and it stabilises

Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ? Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population

Limitations What limitations do you think there could be with the model? It does not include the influences of migration It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern There is no time scale Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries And finally, is there a stage 5?

DTM Families Activity Illustrate and name your family Where do they live? What are their living conditions like? How do they make earn a living? What types of resources do they have? What is going on with the total population around them? Why? Use VOCAB: CBR, CDR, IMF, LDC, MDC,etc

The End?