Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Leading into the Future: Looking for Clues in State and Conference Trends Lovett H. Weems, Jr. Lewis Center for Church Leadership Wesley Theological Seminary churchleadership.com

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary What does it mean to be a Conference leader?

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary You are a steward of the United Methodist witness within the bounds of the Florida Conference.

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Population Trends

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Population Growth Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, Florida State Legislature

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Sources of New Population Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, Florida State Legislature

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Ages of New Population Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, Florida State Legislature

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Race/Ethnicity of New Population Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, Florida State Legislature

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Two Major National Patterns Impacting Churches since 2000 Economic recession Worship depression

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Florida Conference Trends Reflect Historic Strengths and Mirror National Challenges

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Florida Conference since 2000 Attendance loss less than UMC (16% to 19%) More growing churches (33% to 31%, improved in recent years) Higher median attendance (104 to 43) Debt as percent of total expenditures down (64% in 2015 compared to 82% in 2009) Death rate stable

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Trend 1: Strong Cohort of Very Large Churches Have 18 churches with 1,000 or more in worship (down only 3 churches since 2000) 50% grew in 2015 The importance of maintaining and adding to this cohort cannot be stressed too much.

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Trend 2: Difficult Years for Midsize Churches Tremendous downward movement in size. 350–999 AWA: 47 fewer churches in 2015 than in AWA: 23 fewer churches in 2015 than in 2000

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Trend 3: Dramatic Increase in Small Churches 51–125 AWA: 42 more churches than in 2000 Maintaining critical mass and an outward focus is critical. 50 or fewer: 42 more churches than in 2000 One quarter of all churches have 50 or fewer in worship. Troubling signs: Only 19% grew in attendance in % had no profession of faith. Few rise above 50 once they fall below. Hopeful sign: The professions of faith to worshipers ratio is strong in 2015.

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Changes in Number of Churches by Size, or fewer

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Trend 4: Professions of Faith Decline Greater decline than UMC (43% in Florida compared to 38% overall) Decline is consistent across all church sizes. Remained strong through Change in ratio of professions of faith to worshipers from 1:16 in 2005 to 1:23 in 2015 giving a 60% decline in total professions of faith..

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary Trend 5: Finances Total expenditures by all churches was 92% of 2000 (adjusted for inflation). This 92% total was funded with per attendee giving of inflation plus an additional 10%. 350 or more AWA – 1.07% AWA – 1.15% 125 or fewer AWA –1.21% Total –1.10%

Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary As stewards of the United Methodist witness in Florida, what clues do you see for sustaining and expanding that witness?