Ch 12. Elections 1 지난 강의 Theories of Voting sociological, psychological, and rational Voter Turnout Why different? Why indifferent (abstention)? Voting Paradox p*B + D > C
What Wins Elections? In modern elections, voters’ “rational choice” is heavily manipulated by ______________ personality, mass media, and money, etc Everything about a campaign is managed minutely, even the candidate by his “handlers” – to highlight desirable qualities and hide blemishes and avoid mistakes “Do campaigns matter?” studies Generally the candidate with the most money wins, due to the high cost of television? Is it true? 2
Goldstein and Freedman (2000) Campaign spending subject to “diminishing returns” = the more dollars spent, the less gained by each additional $ 3
Greatest Hits of the Televised Campaign Era (Byron Shafer) 1. Johnson (1964) - "Daisy Girl" Hugely controversial in its time and intermittently imitated thereafter. 2. Reagan (1984) - "The Bear" Remarkably forceful while remaining almost entirely metaphorical. 3. Stevenson (1952) - "Gab Gab Gab" One of the greatest social-welfare arguments in the television era. 4. Nixon (1968) - "Our Leaders Have Failed Us" Perhaps the single best piece for conveying the sense of social upheaval associated with the late 1960s. US Presidential Election Campaign Commercials 4
How do people vote? Ex) Retrospective Voting Retrospective voting – the accumulated or package views of voters toward incumbent presidents; views in retrospect a whole four years of performance in office When voters think the government in general is doing a good job, they reward the incumbent’s party Retrospective voting is colored by party identification, issues, and candidate’s personality 5
Retrospective Voting Ex) “Economic Voting” Theory 6 One scientific theory on presidential election: “Economic Voting” theory Voting for or against the incumbent party or president based on the conditions of the economy If the economy is good (bad), the incumbent party candidate is likely to be elected (lost) for elections. Retrospective voting vs. Future expectations? “Are we better off today than four years ago?” “Which party do you think is better handling the economy?”
Economic Voting Theory (rewarding?) 7
Economic Voting Theory (punishing?) 8
Scientific Approach and Prediction Power 9 “Economic Voting” Theory Perfect prediction? Historical examples? On what grounds, can we predict electoral outcome? = should consider many other factors about the influence of money, race, gender, turnout, campaign, policy, candidate characters, etc In short, no theory is “perfectly” predicting political outcomes. Still, we understand politics better when we have a scientific theory that helps us predict political dynamics.
Ch 13. Legislatures 10 Presidential systems vs. Parliamentary systems
Executives vs. Legislatures 11 What does government do? Making law and implementing policy The study of the relations between executive and legislative branches = the very core of political science A key question the balance of power between executives and legislatures “Checks and balance” No longer relevant? The golden age of legislatures (19 th century) has given way to the 20 th century supremacy of executives? Then, what should legislatures do?
Executives vs. Legislatures 12 The Rise of Executives The balance shifted decisively in favor of executives What can explain the growth and dominance of executives? Government complexity Delegated legislation Original advantages of executives Mass media and visibility Party organization Emergency powers in the wake of crises
Example) Making Laws in the U.S. Congress Congressional rules and structures – the parties and committee systems – are designed to enable majorities to make laws. The lawmaking process, however, presents opponents of a bill with many opportunities to sidetrack or kill legislation. U.S. Congress in comparative perspective Violence in the U.S. Congress? 국회방송 특별기획 : “ 세계의회를 가다 ” (17:25) Executives vs. Legislatures 13