The Biogeography of Global Warming

Shows the predicted warming over the 21st century due to business as usual greenhouse gas emissions as reported by the HadCM3 climate model. Robert A. Rohde

Plant and Animal Responses 1.Migrate 2.Adapt 3.Go extinct

Two Likely Candidates for Extinction

The American Pika (Ochotona princeps)

Evidence of Past Warming Episodes: Arctic and Alpine Treelines

Bristlecone Pine (Pinus longaeva)

LaMarche (1973)

Variations in needle length of bristlecone pine at the upper tree line related to temperatures in the summer, in which needle elongation takes place. Large fluctuations in the total photosynthetic area of a tree could be produced by sequences of unusually cool or unusually warm summers. Temperature data are July-August mean maximum temperatures,1958 to LaMarche (1974, Figure 3)

LaMarche (1974)

High Resolution Records of Recent Migration

The Speckled Wood Butterfly (Pararge aegeria)

Camille Parmesan et al. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming Nature 399, (10 June 1999) Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50–100 years. Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration, but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of individuals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at the southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single specie or to only a portion of the species' range. Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35–240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south.

A coloured grid cell indicates more than one population in 1915–1939 (black), 1940– 1969 (red) or 1970–1997 (blue). FIGURE 1. Twentieth-century changes in the range of Pararge aegeria in Great Britain, plotted by presence in Ordnance Survey 10 × 10 km grid squares.

Abstract Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. J. Lenoir, et al. A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century Science 320, 1768 (2008);

Modelling Potential Future Changes in Distribution