Yubao Liu, Yonghui Wu, Linlin Pan, Al Bourgeois Thanks: Jason Knievel, Scott Swerdlin, Xin Zhang, and Xiang-Yu Huang (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

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Presentation transcript:

Yubao Liu, Yonghui Wu, Linlin Pan, Al Bourgeois Thanks: Jason Knievel, Scott Swerdlin, Xin Zhang, and Xiang-Yu Huang (National Center for Atmospheric Research) John Pace, Frank Gallagher, and Scott Halvorson (US Army Dugway Proving Ground, UT) The 5th EnKF Workshop. May 21-24, 2012, Rensselaerville, New York

1.Review of NCAR RTFDDA and E-RTFDDA 2.Description of the NCAR 4D-REKF 3.Comparison experiments of DA schemes with “perfect model and perfect obs” 4.Summary 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

Complex mesoscale processes  Impact of fine-res terrain, land use and land cover, soil  Multi-scale interactions (~ km)  With rich features and fast evolving (Spatiotemporal flow-dependent error co-variance is, if not critical, highly valuable.) Dynamic and diabatic “spin-ups” (Requires strong model constraints, i.e., 4DDA) Efficient and effective assimilation of the obs 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

5 The world of data assimilation User and application -oriented system  Works for me!  My region(s)  My time scales  My data  My applications  Advanced  Uncertainties  OA, OI, SI  3DVAR, 4DVAR  FDDA (Nudging)  DART (EnKF, EaKF, Kernel Filter…)  ETKF, LETKF, Smoother  Latent Heat Nudging  Hybrid “A”, “B” … 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

Multi-models: WRF-ARW, MM5, WRF-NMM Multi-physics: PBL, LSM, MP, CUP, SW/LWRA … Multi-ICBCs: GFS, NAM, GEM, GSM Multi-DAs: FDDA, DART-EAKF, GSI, WRF3DVAR Other perturbations: SKEB, obs, land properties … 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

Obs-nudging FDDA Nudging coefficient Cressman Weight 4D-REKF FDDA Ensemble Kalman Gain 8 4D-REKF: 4-D Relaxation Ensemble Kalman Filter 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

9 Kalman Gain WRF Relaxation OBS Ensemble 1 Ensemble 2 Ensemble M Forecast Ensemble 1 Ensemble 2 Ensemble M “NCAR EPS: Ens-RTFDDA” 4D-REKF  Note: The filter needs to be built in the NWP (WRF) model code; Needs deal with spatiotemporal interpolation of Kalman gains; Needs run along with a “good” ensemble system Better EPS  Better 4D-REKF, Better 4D-REKF  Better EPS 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

10 4D-REKF: 4-Dimensional Relaxation Ensemble Kalman Filter 3DVAR: Historical daily(24h-12h forecast) isotropic weight function RTFDDA 4D-REKF Nudging WRF or MM5 WRF 3DDA 4DDA 4DVar Constraint WRF OA: Simple empirical isotropic (distance) function ENKF: Ensemble flow-dependent anisotropic weight function 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

A Cold Air Damming event in NE US ModelWRF and WRFDA V3.4.0 Initial Time18Z 10 Feb 2008 Grid Number82x92x37 Grid Size32.4 km MicrophysicsLin et al. Land-SurfaceUnified Noah Longwave RadRRTM Shortwave RadGoddard PBLYSU CU PhysicsKain-Fritcsh 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

Exp Description TRUTH: Natural run Nature run of unperturbed initial cond. at 18Z 10 Feb. OBS: Soundings from the Truth, hourly from 18Z 10 to 00Z 11, every 8 th grid points (~260km), error-free CTRL Forecast from a perturbed ICs. at 18Z 10 Feb. 3DVAR CTRL ICs + WRF 3DVAR 4DVAR CTRL ICs + WRF 4DVAR DART Perturbed CTRL ICs + DART RTFDDA CTRL ICs + WRF RTFDDA 4D-REKF CTRL ICs + WRF 4D-REKF T (contour) and wind of the nature run, and T errors of the CTRL I.Cs. obs T 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

18Z19Z20Z21Z22Z23Z00Z 3dvar 3dv 3dvar 24h FCSTS 18Z19Z20Z21Z22Z23Z00Z 4DVAR 24h FCSTS 4DVAR 18Z19Z20Z21Z22Z23Z00Z 24h FCSTS RTFDD A 18Z19Z20Z21Z22Z23Z00Z 24h FCSTS 4D-REKF 18Z19Z20Z21Z22Z23Z00Z 24h FCSTS DART-EaKF Feb. 10, 2008 Feb. 11, th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

RMSD of 3h DA (-3h Forecasts; 21Z Feb. 10) 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012 T-rmse(C) RH-rmse(%) U-rmse(m/s)

RMSD of 6h DA ( 0h Forecasts; 00Z Feb. 11) 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012 T-rmsd(C) RH-rmsd(%) U-rmsd(m/s)

RMSE of 6h Forecasts (06Z Feb. 11) 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012 T-rmsd(C) RH-rmsd(%) U-rmsd(m/s)

RMSE of 12h Forecasts (12Z Feb. 11) 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012 T-rmse(C) RH-rmse(%) U-rmse(m/s)

RMSE of 18h Forecasts (18Z Feb. 11) *EAKF has trouble beyond 12h forecast; debugging 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012 T-rmse(C) RH-rmse(%) U-rmse(m/s)

RMSE of 24h Forecasts (00Z Feb. 12) *EAKF has trouble beyond 12h forecast; debugging 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012 T-rmse(C) RH-rmse(%) U-rmse(m/s)

20  The NCAR 4D-REKF combines and leverages the EnKF into the NCAR E-RTFDDA system (based on WRF-ARW);  4D-REKF is the next-generation data assimilation for the NCAR/RAL mesoscale applications, replacing (E-)RTFDDA. It performs both EDA and EPS in a unified system framework;  R&D of 4D-REKF is on-going, for bug fixes, completeness, and the advanced capabilities;  4D-REKF was tested with a “Perfect Obs and Perfect Model” framework, and compared with RTFDDA, WRF3DVar, WRF4DVar and DART-EnKF. The results show interesting differences among the WRF data assimilation family, and expose obvious advantages of the new 4D-REKF scheme. 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

21 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

Variational DA 1.Generating background error matrix: use 31 ensemble members at 18Z 10 Feb, Preparing observations using OBSPROC for both 3DVAR and 4DVAR. 3. 3DVAR is done every hour starting from 18Z 10 to 00Z 11, in between an hour fcst is done, and the output is used as background for next assimilation. The main parameters in the namelist.input are cv_options = 5, (using self generated Be) var_scaling = 1.00, (scaling factor to the covariance in Be, tried from 0.1 to 5.) len_scaling = 1.00, (lenth scaling is for generating the modes of BE, tried from 0.1 to 2) rf_passes = 6, check_max_iv = false, ( don’t check the obs data) num_max = 80 (maximum of minimization iteration) eps = ( stop when the gradient ratio of cost function reach it) 4.4DVAR is done in 2 cycles, each cycle the assimilation window is 3 hour. The first cycle starts from 18Z to 21Z of 10 th Feb 2008, and the second cycle from 21Z 10 th to 00Z 11 th. The main parameters applied in 4DVAR are as follows var4d_lbc = true ( update the lbc) var_scaling = 5.00, (scaling factor to the covariance in Be, tried from 0.1 to 5.) len_scaling = 1.00, (lenth scaling is for generating the modes of BE, tried from check_max_iv = false (reject the obs if OMB/obs_error)> max_error max_ext_iters=2, max_num = 40, eps = th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012

DART setting Assimilation period 1hr EaKF filter Fixed inflation: 2.5 ( tried with 1.02, 2, 3 and adaptive inflation) Cut off: 0.05 radius (~320km) 30 members 5th EnKF Workshop, NY, May 21-24, 2012