MKCCM / MKC Quarterly Meeting 13 June 2016

Cllr Pete Marland Leader Future Vision & Objectives

Milton Keynes Council Plan

Carole Mills Chief Executive Financial & Resourcing challenges facing MKC and the impact on CMK

Today’s session Funding Funding forecasts Assumptions, uncertainties and risks Costs Cost pressures and assumptions Investment required for Council Plan Savings Savings needed Strategy and approach MTFS Priorities and focus Long term financial sustainability How do we deliver the Council Plan in the current funding and spending context of the MTFS?

Forecast financial overview to 2021 £50.8m £4.7m£12.3m Business Rates £4m Business Rates £5.6m Council Tax additional properties £8.1m Council Tax 1.95% charge increase £6.4m Social Care Levy 2% charge increase (2019/20) £31.0m Government Grant Funding FUNDING PRESSURES £8.5m Inflation £43.1m Service demand s £58.5m of savings required to address the shortfall

Funding 2016/ /21 * including adult social care precept up to 2019/20

Adult social care demand Based on MK Population, Household & Labour Force Projections Bulletin 2015/16 ASC client data – Frameworki Care Package data 2011/12 – 2015/16 Projection based on the 5 years average proportion v MK population projection (2011/ /16) Actual DataProjection Actual Data Projection Actual Data

ASC demand increasing over all care groups Forecast increases in MK population from 2014 to 2018: -Physical Disabilities 5.2% -Learning Disabilities 4.4% -Older People 18.7% Expected increase in number of LD transitions & result of family crises More older people including those with dementia 15% increase in mental health clients

Expenditure – 5 Year Analysis C&F demand – Looked After Children Overall number of LAC continues to increase each year External placements cost significantly more than in house foster care Challenges for our older LAC, due to a lack of suitable onward housing

Homelessness Pressures Increase in demand for Temporary Housing exceeds our low/nil-cost supply, so expensive B&B Hotels usage has increased. Demand surged in February & March, distorting 2015/16 average. Current B&B alternatives not materially cheaper – low cost alternatives imminent Straight-line forecasting shows demand will continue to go up Re-basing to March 2016 indicates a total of 481 units of Temporary Accommodation by 2020/21

Additional ongoing costs ASC Packages £1.4m 2017/18 £6.3m to 2021 Sustainability Items £2.5m in 2017/18 £5.7m to 2021 LAC Placements £0.9m in 2017/18 £3.2m to 2021 Temporary Accommodation £0.9m in 2017/18 £1.5m to 2021 National Living Wage £2.0m in 2017/18 £3.4m to 2021 Home to School Transport £0.4m in 2017/18 £0.9m to 2021

MKC financial savings delivery and future £49.2m £89m £21.6m Delivered Currently being delivered £5.2m Proposals identified Gap to be identified Proposals Identified £4.1m Savings Requirement £58.5m 2011/12 – 2015/ / /18 – 2020/ / /19 – 2020/ /18 – 2020/21 £15.7m in 2017/18, £10.5m in 2018/19

Developing the MTFS – an iterative process All within the context of the Council Plan 4-year view with a long-term strategy Identify potential areas of change Investment needs and benefits determined Change process scoped and managed Sharing context with stakeholders Engagement with service users Work with partners on innovative solutions Finessed options and alternative solutions MTFS Themes: Smarter, Sustainable, Different Co-operative Council

Next Steps Developing pressures and trends (especially in the medium term) which informs savings requirements Further development of the overall strategy Working with a wide range of stakeholders on more innovative solutions Engaging on potential changes

Pete Marland Carole Mills MK Futures 2050

History of the Commission Initiated by Full Council Motion in September 2015 –Explore potential long-term futures –External experts with a strong connection to MK and the region –Engagement with local people, organisations … –Help develop a framework for discussions with Government To consider the Commission’s report “in the next municipal year” Commission is chaired by Sir Peter Gregson (VC Cranfield University) with others being experts in key topics or with strong local links

The process so far Evidence gathering: –Commissioning new evidence on a wide range of issues –Commission Working Papers published with final report Stakeholder engagement focussing on “what makes a great city?” Scenario-building … alternative visions of MK in 2050 Developing the Big Projects and other recommendations Drafting the report

Some of the key issues and opportunities

Launch and Next Steps Immediate next steps: Finalising report to be published on Monday 4 July Various public meetings and briefings with stakeholders and partners Full Council meeting on Wednesday 20 July And then … Developing a Delivery Plan for the Big Projects and taking forward recommendations Delivery and maintaining momentum