Sustainable Responses to Climate Change Alberto Vargas July 6 th, 2016

Outline The issue: what is at stake? – LAC contributions – Impacts Status: Frameworks and LAC in the context of Paris - COP21 Some responses: – Nivela – Costa Rica – Future Earth Conclusions and Resources

Global Warming and Climate Change – What is at Stake? Energy provision using fossil fuels (80% now) since industrial revolution CO 2 and other GHG (Greenhouse Gases) Great Acceleration since (1750) and more obvious since 1950s Warming due to CO 2 known since Confirmed in 1988 (Hansen) Attempts to “do something about it” since 1992

Great Acceleration and Anthropocene

Source:

Source:

Impacts of CC in LAC Extreme weather events – Floods, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves Sea Level Rising – E.g. Panama Loss of Glaciers in the Andes Displacement of crops and pests Coral reefs blanching and degradation

Hurricane Mitch, 1998

Sea level rising in Panama

Receding Glaciers Chacaltaya, Bolivia

Chronology of Negotiations 1988 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Regular assessments June 1992 – Rio Summit – un Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfcc) Dec 1997 – Kyoto Protocol signed (limit emissions and carbon trade) Nov 2004 – Kyoto protocol enacted after Russia ratifies it. US did not ratified it.

Chronology… Dec 2009 – COP 15 in Copenhagen. (Weak commitments as Kyoto set to expire in 2012) Dec 2011 – COP 17 in Durban agrees to work towards an agreement for 2015 Nov 2014 – China and US agree on a bilateral commitment, making Paris meeting viable. Dec 2014 – COP 20 in Lima. Draft of a text for Paris. Switzerland submits INDC in Feb 2015.

COP 21 – Paris Agreement in a Nutshell Universal – 196 countries agreed Goal – Keep warming to a maximum of 2 o C; try to keep it under 1.5 o C. Voluntary – Based on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Presented by 187 countries….Aggregate Not Enough!!!! Periodic Review – Every 5 years. Starting in 2018, hoping to adjust reductions to goal.

COP 21 ….. Mid and Long Term – Need to peak and then reduce emissions. Goal zero net emissions in second half of XXI Century. Externalization – For example carbon sequestration and forest conservation.. Damages and Losses – Mechanisms to absorb collectively vulnerable countries losses and damages. Transparency and Finances - $100 billion per year for mitigation and adaptation (but not binding).

Bottom Line – Paris COP 21 “By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.” George Monbiot, The Guardian

INDCs in Latin America Source:

Emissions Gap

The emissions gap is the difference between pledges made this year by individual countries about their greenhouse gas emissions through 2030, and what's needed to have a good chance of keeping global warming below the 2°C target.

3 key numbers to understand Paris 2 o Centigrades……The goal 565 gigatons …….CO 2 we can release to goal 2,795 gigatons…..Reserves of fossil fuels Annual release of CO 2 …… 36 gigatons

Other key numbers ppm …..CO 2 in May ppm ………CO 2 before industrial revolution 350 ppm ……… CO 2 “safe”level

Responses and Good News in LAC Efforts to maintain forest cover in the region Efforts to maintain biodiversity in the region Amazon basin and river system still in good condition Aims towards a clean energy matrix (hydro and renewables)

Some responses to follow C-Change and integral approach Nivela (Costa Rica) Big History project Displacement Solutions Future Earth CEPAL LAC Webinars

Karen O’Brien

Integral approach (Karen O’Brien and Michael Zimmerman)

Integral Ecology and Pope Francis

Nivela (Costa Rica)

Ecuador: Not so good response

Yasuni and Oil