Annual meeting of the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 2016 May Inês Azevedo – Co Director Granger Morgan – Co Director Welcome 1

Good morning Thanks to you all of for joining us this morning!

In these introductory remarks… …I want do just two things: 1.Remind us all what we told NSF we were going to do. 2.Review the agenda for the day.

4 In our proposal we argued… …that we see three things as essential if America is to address the climate problem by restructuring its energy system are: 1) more citizens and decision makers who understand the essence of the problem; 2) a set of well assessed technologies and strategies to decarbonize the system; and, 3) a strategic vision of how to get there from where the nation is now. We organized our proposal in three tasks around these issues.

5 Task 1: Study public and decision makers’ understanding of: a) the central role of CO2 in climate change and the fundamental difference between CO2 and conventional air pollutants; b) the fact that transforming the energy system will require a portfolio of technologies, and the associated implications of existing long- lived energy infrastructure; and, c) how best to communicate the knowledge needed for informed decision making and understand its implications.

6 Task 1: Study public and decision makers’ understanding of: a) the central role of CO2 in climate change and the fundamental difference between CO2 and conventional air pollutants; b) the fact that transforming the energy system will require a portfolio of technologies, and the associated implications of existing long- lived energy infrastructure; and, c) how best to communicate the knowledge needed for informed decision making and understand its implications. We’ll talk this morning about where we stand on pursuing the first two of these, and brainstorm some about what we should do on all three during the coming year.

7 Task 2: Continue and seed research on key behavioral, economic, and technical issues, and issues in regulatory design, that lie along critical paths to decarbonizing the energy system. By focusing on a subset of important problems on which CEDM has a clear comparative advantage the team will work to: 1) find ways to use energy more efficiently; 2) develop more sources of energy that are safe, clean, affordable, secure, and sustainable; 3) deliver the energy the US uses with greater security and efficiency; and, 4) facilitate innovation in both technology and in organizations, regulation, and public policy. In later years the mix of topics addressed in Task 2 will be shaped by findings from Task 3.

8 Task 2: Continue and seed research on key behavioral, economic, and technical issues, and issues in regulatory design, that lie along critical paths to decarbonizing the energy system. By focusing on a subset of important problems on which CEDM has a clear comparative advantage the team will work to: 1) find ways to use energy more efficiently; 2) develop more sources of energy that are safe, clean, affordable, secure, and sustainable; 3) deliver the energy the US uses with greater security and efficiency; and, 4) facilitate innovation in both technology and in organizations, regulation, and public policy. In later years the mix of topics addressed in Task 2 will be shaped by findings from Task 3. We’ll talk about some of the work we are dong on these issues through the middle part of today, in posters at the end of today, and then some more in the opening session tomorrow morning.

9 Task 3: [CEDM will]…run two major "visioning exercises," supported by background preparation, conducted in part through "theory and methods" workshops, and informed by results from Tasks 1 and 2. In these visioning exercises, a group of researchers, outside experts, and decision-makers will gather to identify behaviorally realistic cost-effective strategies and work to identify and avoid "dead ends." These efforts will be predicated on the hypothesis that "muddling through” will not achieve the major transformation needed to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system. The objective will be to have the results carefully vetted and then widely disseminated for use by decision makers when "policy windows" open and opportunities arise for "regime transitions. "

10 Task 3: [CEDM will]…run two major "visioning exercises," supported by background preparation, conducted in part through "theory and methods" workshops, and informed by results from Tasks 1 and 2. In these visioning exercises, a group of researchers, outside experts, and decision-makers will gather to identify behaviorally realistic cost-effective strategies and work to identify and avoid "dead ends." These efforts will be predicated on the hypothesis that "muddling through” will not achieve the major transformation needed to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system. The objective will be to have the results carefully vetted and then widely disseminated for use by decision makers when "policy windows" open and opportunities arise for "regime transitions. " At the end of today we will report on a piece we published in PNAS titled “Climate policy needs more than muddling” as well as on a workshop we ran on “Identifying and Avoiding Potential Dead Ends and Missed Opportunities in Climate Policy. ” We’ll wrap up with a some discussion and then tomorrow hold a brainstorming session on our first “visioning exercise.”

Fundamental Research Goals  Public understanding  Communication strategies  Improved understanding affects policy outcomes?  Develop & evaluate decision- making strategies and technologies to decarbonize energy systems Envisioned Outcomes  Theory & methods in social sciences with applications to climate and energy decision making under uncertainty  How various publics conceptualize climate change and mitigation.  Communication strategies.  Understanding of whether improved understanding matters to policy outcomes.  Identification of strategies to decarbonize the energy system.  A large group of interdisciplinary scholars in climate & energy DMUU.  Contribution to the literature Research Topics Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 = Refinement and information flow from one topic to another 1st visioning exercise meeting TOPIC 1: Studies of public and decision makers' understanding of climate change and energy transitions. TOPIC 2: Studies of regulatory, economic, behavioral and technology strategies to decarbonize the U.S. energy system. TOPIC 3: Development of a set of well vetted strategies to have available when policy windows open – informed by several new Theory & Methods workshops. 2nd visioning exercise meeting Book preparation  Strategies to avoid dead ends 11

12 Today’s agenda (1)

13 Today’s agenda (2)

14 Today’s agenda (3)

15 Today’s agenda (4) A list of the poster titles is available in your meeting materials.

16 Tomorrow’s agenda

Introductions around the room 17 Image source: Google Maps CMU UBC RAND IRGC VT Law Duke Leeds LBNL & PNNL UC Davis U.Washinton CATF Two or three sentences each please.