Assessing vulnerability to support conservation management. An example with two Mediterranean pines MARÍA JESÚS SERRA VARELA Serra-Varela, M.J. Alía, R. Ruiz Daniels, R. Zimmermann, N. Gonzalo-Jiménez,J.* Grivet, D. * *These authors contributed equally to the supervision of the work Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon –

INDEX 1.- INTRODUCTION 2.- METHODS 4.- DISCUSSION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – RESULTS 5.- FINAL REMARKS

1.- INTRODUCTION Climate change is leading to forest decline (e.g. Wang et al., 2006; Allen et al., 2010). Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – What is threatened ? It is necessary to assess vulnerability Urgent need to design conservation plans with a solid scientific basis

1.- INTRODUCTION Climate change is leading to forest decline (e.g. Wang et al., 2006; Allen et al., 2010). Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – What is threatened ? It is necessary to assess vulnerability Urgent need to design conservation plans with a solid scientific basis VULNERABILITY ( Dawson et al., 2011): Adaptive capacity Exposure Sensitivity Rarely considered together

1.- INTRODUCTION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – VULNERABILITY ( Dawson et al., 2011): 1.Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al., 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ Phenotypic plasticity Genetic variation CONSERVATION UNITS Populations with similar genetic variation

1.- INTRODUCTION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – VULNERABILITY ( Dawson et al., 2011): 1.Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al., 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ 2.Exposure Magnitude of climate change Assessed by risk of habitat loss with SDMs Infra-specific responses? Future climate uncertainties?

1.- INTRODUCTION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – VULNERABILITY ( Dawson et al., 2011): 1.Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al., 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ 2.Exposure Magnitude of climate change 3.Sensitivity Likelihood of an adverse response to climate change Reproduction, performance, fitness, survival Require mechanistic models with large empirical datasets Complicated at a coarse scale

1.- INTRODUCTION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – VULNERABILITY ( Dawson et al., 2011): 1.Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al., 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ 2.Exposure Magnitude of climate change Illustrated with two emblematic Mediterranean conifers Pinus pinaster Ait. Pinus halepensis Mill. Adaptive capacity Exposure Adequate conservation strategy (in situ vs ex situ)

1.- INTRODUCTION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – In addition: Evaluation of current European conservation efforts EUFGIS – Dynamic Conservation Units (DCUs) 42 (P. pinaster) and 26 (P. halepensis) DCUs

A.- GENETIC CLADES AS CONSERVATION UNITS 2.- METHODS Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Very different evolutionary histories and genetic structure patterns Pinus pinaster Ait. Pinus halepensis Mill.

A.- GENETIC CLADES AS CONSERVATION UNITS 2.- METHODS Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Very different evolutionary histories and genetic structure patterns Pinus pinaster Ait. Pinus halepensis Mill. Serra-Varela, M.J., Alía, R., Ruíz-Daniels, R., Zimmermann, N.E., Gonzalo-Jiménez, J., Grivet, D., submitted. Assessing vulnerability of two Mediterranean conifers to support genetic conservation management.

B.- SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS 2.- METHODS Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – SDMs predict species distribution based on known occurrence records and on environmental variables Projections in any space or time! Ensemble model combining five algorithms: GLM GAM,CTA,RF and MaxEnt Four bioclimatic variables from WORLDCLIM (temp and prec related) Species distribution Data: EUFORGEN + AFOLU-JRC species distribution SDM FOR EACH GENETIC CLADE

C.- FUTURE SUITABILITY MAPS 2.- METHODS Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Projections on 42 different future climate predictions to account for future climate uncertainty Risk assessment of habitat loss depending on the level of agreement among the different projections FromToFuture Suitability 0,000,36Likely unsuitable 0,360,70Uncertain 0,701,00Likely suitable

D.- DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE 2.- METHODS Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Conservation strategy recommendations based on Current distribution, current projections of their SDMs and future suitability maps Main objective: to minimize the risk of failure To select between Ex situ, in situ and in situ with monitoring Ex situ conservation by translocation or in germplasm banks

Current Distribution Current projection of SDM Future Suitability Map 2050 Conservation strategy Presence -Likely unsuitableEx situ Presence -Likely suitableIn situ Presence -UncertainIn situ with monitoring AbsentSuitableLikely suitable Current first option area for translocation AbsentSuitableUncertain Current second option area for translocation AbsentUnsuitableLikely suitable Midterm first option area for translocation AbsentUnsuitableUncertain Midterm second option area for translocation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – METHODS D.- DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Current Distribution Current projection of SDM Future Suitability Map 2050 Conservation strategy Presence -Likely unsuitableEx situ Presence -Likely suitableIn situ Presence -UncertainIn situ with monitoring AbsentSuitableLikely suitable Current first option area for translocation AbsentSuitableUncertain Current second option area for translocation AbsentUnsuitableLikely suitable Midterm first option area for translocation AbsentUnsuitableUncertain Midterm second option area for translocation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – METHODS D.- DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Current Distribution Current projection of SDM Future Suitability Map 2050 Conservation strategy Presence -Likely unsuitableEx situ Presence -Likely suitableIn situ Presence -UncertainIn situ with monitoring AbsentSuitableLikely suitable Current first option area for translocation AbsentSuitableUncertain Current second option area for translocation AbsentUnsuitableLikely suitable Midterm first option area for translocation AbsentUnsuitableUncertain Midterm second option area for translocation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – METHODS D.- DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

A.- FUTURE SUITABILITY MAPS Likely suitable areas concentrated near the current distribution of the clades and in other regions of the Mediterranean basin. Exceptionally in northerner Central European countries absent present likely unsuitable uncertain likely suitable Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – RESULTS Example with Atlantic Iberian Peninsula clade of P. pinaster

C.- DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Very different level of threat among clades Tunisian clades slightly endangered. In the Mediterranean Spanish coast very different patterns for both species. Overall there are in situ conservation locations for all clades although some times monitoring is required Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – But for P. pinaster clades along the Mediterranean Spanish coast and Morroccan P. halepensis clades. 3.- RESULTS

C.- DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – RESULTS current 1. translocation ex situ in situ midterm 1. translocation midterm 2. translocation likely unsuitable uncertain likely suitable unsuitable suitable absent present Current distributionCurrent projection SDM Future suitability mapConservation proposal current 2. translocation Atlantic Iberian Peninsula clade of P. pinaster

D.- EVALUATION OF CURRENT CONSERVATION EFFORT IN EUROPE Missing and overrepresented clades E.g.: 21/26 DCUs represented G3/G5 admixture zone in P. halepensis DCUs likely to become unsuitable Urgency of monitoring Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – RESULTS

CONSERVATION GOAL To guarantee the maintenance of the species` potential to dynamically evolve and adapt to new emerging climatic conditions 4.- DISCUSSION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon –

CONSERVATION GOAL To guarantee the maintenance of the species` potential to dynamically evolve and adapt to new emerging climatic conditions 4.- DISCUSSION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Majorly, in situ conservation should be enough: All analysed clades have high adaptive differentiation, high phenotypic plasticity and climatically stable areas

CONSERVATION GOAL To guarantee the maintenance of the species` potential to dynamically evolve and adapt to new emerging climatic conditions 4.- DISCUSSION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Majorly, in situ conservation should be enough: All analysed clades have high adaptive differentiation, high phenotypic plasticity and climatically stable areas When not, will high genetic diversity and high phenotypic plasticity be enough? Relationship between resilience to climate change and genetic diversity

CURRENT CONSERVATION EFFORTS IN EUROPE 4.- DISCUSSION Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – Evaluation of risk of habitat loss: new requirement to become a DCU Necessary to guide the selection, management, monitoring and conservation of DCUs All clades should be adequately represented

Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – FINAL REMARKS Genomic and genetic information: essential for conservation management Standardized and systematic methodology to guide international conservation management plans

Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – FINAL REMARKS Genomic and genetic information: essential for conservation management Standardized and systematic methodology to guide international conservation management plans A lot of work to do…

Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon – ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Santiago C. González-Martínez for insightful discussion Cost Action FP1202 AdapCon Spanish National Research Plan (CGL C02-01) the EUFGIS national focal points and the EUFORGEN national coordinators We thank funding from TipTree (BiodivERsA-ERANET). In addition we are grateful to

MARÍA JESÚS SERRA VARELA A Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon –