This Year (2014) So Far/ A Look Ahead John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas

The Year 2014 It has been cool and somewhat dry so far in 2014 (through April). The window is closing on when we typically get substantial rain in Arkansas (in the spring). Precipitation usually scatters out in the summer. We appear to be transitioning from neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific to El Niño (warmer than normal water).

Precipitation 2014 (Through April)

Precipitation 2014 (Through April)

Precipitation 2014 (Through April)

Already Relief Early May, 2014 One to three inches of rain fell in western Arkansas in the twenty four hour period ending at 700 am CDT on May 9 th. Local amounts exceeded six inches.

Temperatures 2014 (Through April)

Arkansas Drought April 29, 2013

U.S. Drought April 29, 2014

Severe Weather 2014 It was a slow start to the severe weather season, with only one tornado through mid-April. Five more tornadoes were spawned on the 27 th.

One of the tornadoes tracked 41 miles through Mayflower and Vilonia (both in Faulkner County), and was rated EF4 ( mph winds). Severe Weather 2014

Severe Weather 2014 Rotation was intense at 738 pm CDT on the 27 th. At this time, the tornado was between Mayflower and Vilonia (both in Faulkner County).

Severe Weather 2014 There was a debris ball detected. This indicated a tornado was present and causing damage.

ENSO Through the End of 2014

The Last Few Years Blue – La Niña Red - El Niño Early 2008/2011: Very active with a lot of severe weather (including tornadoes). 2009: Record wet year. Summers : Top 15 warmest/drought.

The Transition Neutral to El Niño

The Forecast Long Term Precipitation

The Forecast Long Term Temperatures

Summers

The Tropics Given El Niño conditions, shear will increase over the Atlantic Ocean, and this will make the tropics less active (fewer storms).

Official Outlook Precipitation (Summer, 2014)

Official Outlook Temperatures (Summer, 2014)

U.S. Drought Outlook Through July, 2014

Putting Words to It We are keeping an eye on the western half of Arkansas for possible drought development. If a drought does unfold, the transition to El Niño may keep it short-term (since most transitions have resulted in above normal precipitation locally). Look for more warmer than normal days than earlier in 2014, but not a summer with relentless heat and little rain.

On the Web There is much more information on the National Weather Service Little Rock website at this address… or Google… National Weather Service Little Rock

On the Web

The End Thanks for coming!