MODULE 6: Emissions Outlook August 2016

The following slides provide an outlook for the following air emissions: –Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions –Sulphur oxide emissions (SO x ) –Nitrogen oxide emissions (NO x ) –Fine particulate matter emissions less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) –Mercury emissions (Hg) 2 Outlook for emissions

Electricity sector GHG emissions in Outlook B Emissions decline in the near term, as additional renewable generation enters service, and remain relatively flat in the longer term, averaging 4 MT per year over the planning outlook Emissions expected to rise slightly following Pickering retirement but will remain well below historical levels 3 Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )

With Cap and Trade in effect in 2017, the electricity sector will see the cost of carbon reflected in the wholesale electricity price when natural gas-fired resources are on the margin The Ontario market price for carbon will also be applied to electricity imports, which will reduce imports from higher emitting sources. At the same time, imports to Ontario from non-emitting jurisdictions such as Quebec could increase, other things being equal. Similarly, the addition of a carbon price to emitting Ontario generators would reduce the amount of electricity exported from natural gas-fired generators, and so reduce Ontario GHG emissions 4 Cap and trade impacts

5 Outlook B (With Cap and Trade) Outlook B (Without Cap and Trade) Cap and trade impacts in Outlook B

6 Data for slide 3 and 5: GHG emissions in Outlook B Historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions GHG Emissions (Megatonnes CO 2 e) Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Outlook B GHG Emissions (Megatonnes CO 2 e) GHG Emissions, without Cap and Trade (Megatonnes CO 2 e) GHG Emissions (Megatonnes CO 2 e) GHG Emissions, without Cap and Trade (Megatonnes CO 2 e) Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )

For illustration, in higher demand outlooks consideration is given to keeping GHG emissions within the range of that in Outlook B 7 Additional information about the resources associated with each demand outlook can be found in Module 7

8 Data for slide 7: GHG emissions outlook Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook A – Solar, Wind, Gas A – Nuclear, Gas B C1 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Firm Imports C2 - Wind, Demand Response, Firm Imports, Gas C3 - Wind, Demand Response, Nuclear, Firm Imports D1 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Firm Imports D2 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Firm Imports, Gas D3 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Nuclear, Firm Imports D4 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Nuclear, Firm Imports, Gas A – Solar, Wind, Gas A – Nuclear, Gas B C1 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Firm Imports C2 - Wind, Demand Response, Firm Imports, Gas C3 - Wind, Demand Response, Nuclear, Firm Imports D1 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Firm Imports D2 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Firm Imports, Gas D3 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Nuclear, Firm Imports D4 - Wind, Waterpower, Demand Response, Nuclear, Firm Imports, Gas

9 Nitrogen oxide emissions in Outlook B Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )

10 Sulphur oxide emissions in Outlook B Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )

11 Fine particulate matter (<2.5μm) emissions in Outlook B Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )

12 Mercury emissions in Outlook B Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )

13 Data for slides 9-12: Air contaminant emissions in Outlook B update Historical Air Contaminant Emissions Nitrogen oxide emissions (tonnes)48,14338,95543,84638,31424,38928,13018,98819,07717,18311,5208,877 Sulphur oxide emissions (tonnes)114,32387,932105,42076,02030,76838,44811,97110,34210, Fine particulate matter (<2.5μm) emissions (tonnes)1,7871,5291,8761,3141,7792, Mercury emissions (kg) Air Contaminant Emissions in Outlook B Nitrogen oxide emissions (tonnes)5,3234,4744,3633,7473,8113,8623,8044,0773,7044,330 Sulphur oxide emissions (tonnes) Fine particulate matter (<2.5μm) emissions (tonnes) Mercury emissions (kg) Nitrogen oxide emissions (tonnes)3,8603,8833,8323,9843,9213,3701,9512,0362,2462,613 Sulphur oxide emissions (tonnes) Fine particulate matter (<2.5μm) emissions (tonnes) Mercury emissions (kg) Source: Environment Canada ( ), IESO ( )