Wealth and Investment Management Markets and the Global Economy Barclays Research, Economics and Strategy June 2016 Henk Potts

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 2 Source: FactSet, Datastream, Barclays; graph based on asset class indices as published in Compass February Performance of our asset classes

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 3 Data source: FactSet, Barclays; through end of May Equity performance 2016 year-to-date by region

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 4 Data source: Datastream, Barclays US recovery has been more volatile than expected

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 5 Data source: Datastream, Barclays US Interest rates were close to zero from Dec 2008 until Dec 2015

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 6 Data source: Datastream, Barclays The slow normalisation of policy started in 2015

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 7 The unemployment rate has steadily declined Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays US labour market has rapidly recovered

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 8 Data source: Datastream, Barclays US Retail Sales

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 9 Data source: Datastream, Barclays US Housing Market recovery remains robust

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 10 Data source: Datastream, Barclays The US Deficit is decreasing rapidly

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 11 % y-o-y except where stated F2017F GDP CPI Official interest rate (%) Future forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance US forecasts in a nutshell

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 12 Source: Robert Shiller, Bloomberg, FactSet, Barclays. Based on annual Robert Shiller equity data until 1936, switched to Bloomberg S&P 500 data from 1937 onwards. Data ends with 2012 full four year election periods and 2013 for first years after election. US elections and equity performance

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 13 Data source: Datastream, Barclays Euro zone real GDP growth

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 14 Data source: Datastream, Barclays Euro Area consumer prices turned negative once again in Feb

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 15 Source: Gavekal, Barclays Not your usual QE

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 16 % y-o-y except where stated E2016F2017F GDP CPI Official interest rate (%)0.05 NA Future forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance Euro-area forecasts in a nutshell

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 17 % y-o-y except where stated E2016F2017F GDP CPI Official interest rate (%)0.5 NA Future forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance UK forecasts in a nutshell

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 18 Data source: Datastream, Barclays Markets are nervous about a Brexist

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 19 Source: Datastream, Barclays Chinese GDP growth has slowed, but recent data shows signs of stability

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 20 Data source: Barclays Equity Gilt Study Long term asset class performance

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 21 Number of consecutive years Outperform cash Underperform cash Total number of years Probability of equity outperformance 75%78%74%79%85%100% Outperform bonds Underperform bonds Total number of years Probability of equity outperformance 69%67% 70%79%90% Source: Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2016, Barclays; All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Selected US equity performance statistics since 1925

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 22 Data source: Datastream, Barclays US Equities - S&P 500

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 23 Data source: IBES, Datastream, Barclays Expected earnings growth

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 24 Data source: Datastream, Barclays S&P 500 Trailing Price/Earnings Ratio with Historical Median

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 25 Data source: Datastream, Barclays S&P 500 and Eurofirst 300

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 26 Data source: FactSet, Barclays Government bond yields: selected markets

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 27 Data source: Datastream, Barclays Structural changes suggests the oil price will remain lower for longer

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. 28 Data source: Datastream, Barclays Divergence in growth rate and policy suggests the dollar will strengthen

All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. This document has been issued and approved by Barclays Bank PLC. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This document does not constitute a prospectus, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any other instrument, which may be discussed in it. All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute our judgement as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The value of investments, and the income there from, can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested. This document is not a personal recommendation and you should consider whether you can rely upon any opinion or statement contained in this document without seeking further advice tailored for your own circumstances. This document is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee(s). If you are not an addressee, or have received this document in error, please notify the sender immediately, delete it from your system and do not copy, disclose or otherwise act upon any part of this or its attachments. It may not be reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) to any other person without our prior written permission. Law or regulation in certain countries may restrict the manner of distribution of this document and persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves of and observe such restrictions. We or our affiliates may have acted upon or have made use of material in this document prior to its publication. You should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on your personal tax position from your own tax adviser. You have sole responsibility for the management of your tax and legal affairs including making any applicable filings and payments and complying with any applicable laws and regulations. We have not and will not provide you with tax or legal advice and recommend that you obtain your own independent tax and legal advice tailored to your individual circumstances. Barclays offers wealth and investment management products and services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered No Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Disclaimer 29