Student Contribution to the Cost of Higher Education in the United States Multinational Higher Education Forum March 17, 2006 Paul Lingenfelter, President, SHEEO

Carnegie Commission on Higher Education, 1973

Monetary outlays for the educational and living expenses of students Public sources & philanthropy Students & parents Economic costs, including the net loss of potential income to students Public sources & philanthropy Students & parents

Carnegie Commission on Higher Education, 1973 Equity of opportunity Additional public investments in need- based student assistance Charging progressively higher fees for advanced undergraduate and graduate instruction Developing more progressive tax systems Narrowing the “gap” between student costs in public and private institutions

Important developments since 1973 U.S. Student Assistance, Source: College Board (billions of $)Per FTE Federal Grants$ 18B$1,413 State Grants$ 6B$471 Institutional Grants$ 24B$1,884 Private Grants$ 8B$628 Federal Tax Credits$ 8B$628 All Grants and credits$ 64B$5,025 Federal Loans/Work$63B$4,946 All Assistance$127B$9,971

Important developments since 1973 Growing Tuition and Fees – Constant (2005) Dollars Source: College Board Academic Year Private Four-Year Public Four-Year Public Two-Year $8,026$1,530$ $13,663$2,791$1, $21,235$5,491$2,191

Important developments since 1973 Earnings Premium of a College Degree Premium above High School Credential 88% 50%

Important developments since 1973 Enrollment Growth and Public Higher Education Appropriations per FTE U.S., Fiscal Source: SHEEO SHEF

Important developments since 1973 Utah Montana New Hampshire Delaware New Jersey Maine Maryland Massachusetts Wisconsin Vermont Ohio North Dakota Connecticut Kansas Arkansas Virginia Nebraska Oklahoma Minnesota Colorado West Virginia Kentucky Michigan Arizona New York Georgia Hawaii Illinois Pennsylvania Alaska Rhode Island United States New Mexico California Iowa Indiana North Carolina Florida Idaho South Carolina South Dakota Missouri Washington Oregon Texas Nevada Tennessee Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005 Projected State and Local Budget Deficits as a Percent of Revenues, 2013

Important developments since 1973 Total Educational Revenues per FTE by Component, U.S., Fiscal Source: SHEEO SHEF $9126 $9212

Diversity Among the States State Undergraduate Grant Aid per Undergraduate Student by State, Source: National Association of State Student Grant & Aid Programs Six Largest States

Diversity Among the States Total Educational Revenues per Student by State, Fiscal 2005 Source: SHEE SHEF Six Largest States

Diversity Among the States Net Tuition as a Percent of Public Higher Education Total Educational Revenues by State, Fiscal 2005 Source: SHEE SHEF Six Largest States

Diversity Among the States Annual Tuition and Required Fees at Public Flagship Universities by State, Source: : Tuition and Fee Rates: A National Comparison, Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board. Six Largest States

Diversity Among the States Annual Tuition and Required Fees at Public Community Colleges by State, Source: : Tuition and Fee Rates: A National Comparison, Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board. Six Largest States

Diversity Among the States Enrollment in Public Community Colleges as a Percent of Fall 2004 Headcount by State Source: IPEDS Six Largest States

Diversity Among the States Enrollment in Private Institutions as a Percent of Fall 2004 Headcount by State Source: IPEDS Six Largest States

Current Challenges College Participation by SES Status Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001 College Participation By Achievement Test and Socioeconomic Status Quartile SES Quartile LowestHighest Achievement Quartile Highest78%97% Lowest36%77%

Current Challenges Source: U.S. Census Bureau Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population,

Current Challenges Source: Demography and the Future of Higher Education Policy, Richard Fry, April 2001 Non-Hispanic White 18% Asian/Pacific Islander 16% Non-Hispanic Black 16% Native American 1% Hispanic 49% New Year Olds by Race

Current Challenges Growth of the For-Profit Sector Public 75% Private, not-for-profit 20% Private, for profit 5%

The Crystal Ball The more things change, the more they stay the same. The upward spiral in costs will moderate, not end. The “secular trend” toward higher fees will continue: the middle class will protect its interests.

The Crystal Ball Enrollments will grow at lower cost, less selective and for-profit institutions. Need-based financial aid will be combined with academic standards. No Child Left Behind – If affordable

Paul Lingenfelter President, SHEEO Contact Information