1 Jonathan 2016 AASA Legislative Advocacy Conference

2 Key 2016 Dynamics

Hillary Clinton currently leads Donald Trump among registered voters by just 2 points. 3 General Election Horserace: Trump vs. Clinton (Only among polls of Registered or Likely Voters) [Just Registered or Likely Voters) Currently Clinton41.6 Trump39.9 Clinton +1.7

Half of voters find the rhetoric used in this election cycle repulsive. 4 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016

Clinton’s strengths are in leadership, while Trump’s are in honesty and changing the status quo. 5 Who would better handle the following issues? Trump or Clinton NBC News/WSJ June 2016

Our battleground poll pointed to significant levels of anxiety in the national mood, as evidenced by a strong majority of Americans feeling as though things in the country have gotten off on the wrong track. 6 Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

A majority of voters are worried that the U.S. will suffer another economic downturn that will negatively affect their families. 7 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016

A majority of voters believe the next generation will be worse off economically than the current generation. 8 Do you believe that the next generation will be better off economically than the current generation? LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

A majority of registered voters want the next president to take the country in a different direction. 9 Overall, do you want the next president to mostly continue the policies of President Obama, or take the country in a different direction? LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1% Continue Obama’s Policies Different Direction

However, suddenly voters like Obama again. 10 President Obama Approval Rating, Currently Approve49.8 Disapprove46.7 Approve +3.1 (Full Presidency)

Voters remain divided on the ACA 11 April 2015 Favorable 43 Unfavorable 42 As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?

Democrats, low income Americans, and Younger voters are positive toward ACA. Republicans, middle income, and older voters are more likely negative. 12 As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?

13 Democrats and Independent voters think that Republicans in Congress are trying to gain political advantage when they vote to repeal the ACA N=1,204 adults nationwide by telephone

14 Political Battleground

A majority of Americans disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. 15 Source: Gallup; April 6-10, 2016

Neither party is popular, but Republicans are significantly underwater. 16

Democrats hold a slight advantage in national head-to-head horse race. 17 July 10,

But Democrats need a bigger wave to take back the house. 18 Solid DLikely DLean DToss UpLean RLikely RSolid R Currently

Senate Battleground Democrats Need 4 or 5 for Majority 19 Source: Ballotpedia

Current Legislative Majorities Democrats = 12 Republicans = Source:

21 Demographics

The Rising American Electorate (RAE) consists of unmarried women, African Americans, Latinos, Asian American, Pacific Islanders, other people of color and millennials.

Vote eligible Latinos and Asian Americans are expected to have the fastest growth from 2012 to Latinos and unmarried women will see the largest growth in terms of number of voters added * RAE**116,839, million, 14% increase 133,154,682 Unmarried Women55,151, million, 6.8% increase 58,904,783 African Americans26,914, million, 7.7% increase 28,975,337 Latinos23,328, million, 17.4% increase 27,395, Year Olds**63,008, million, 4.8% increase 66,063,167 Married Women (Not just in the RAE) 56,907, million, 2.5% increase 58,346,915 Asian Americans8,253, million, 27.3% increase 10,509,210 CPS Estimates of the Vote Eligible Population * Projected: Uses a rolling average of monthly CPS data to estimate the linear trend in population growth and use that to extrapolate from the current population size. This is intended to be an approximation of likely population growth. ** These RAE/age projections use the RAE definition of year olds rather than Millennials, which change year on year. They assume a standard age group of year olds for each year. 23

Vote Eligible Population Unmarried Women18-32 Year Olds African AmericansLatinosAsian Americans Source: CPS November 2014 * Percentages denote share of that group within the Vote Eligible Population (VEP) i.e. unmarried women are 25.8% of the VEP Millennials and unmarried women have far and away the largest shares. Non-RAE 43.3% RAE 56.7% 25.8% 26.0% 4.3%11.4% 12.7% Other people of color make up 3.0% of the VEP. 24

IN 2012 higher turnout among Hispanics who more strongly favored Obama, and continued strong African American turnout provided some room for Democratic erosion among white men. 25 Exit Polls % of electorate% Kerry D Vote Share % of electorate % Obama D Vote Share % of electorate % Obama D Vote Share Hispanics African Americans Asian Other Races White men White women ~48~53~50.3

Yesterday’s Washington Post 26

27 Education and the Election

When asked what the most important issue facing the next president will be, education is not top of mind. The economy, terrorism, and national security are drowning out the other issues, including education. 28 Sources: Suffolk University Political Research Center, February 11 - February 15, 2016 and based on 1,000 telephone interviews. Sample: National adult. Interviews were conducted by landline and cell phones.

Overall, Americans are not satisfied with the quality of education students receive. 29 Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality of education students receive in kindergarten through grade 12 in the US today?

Policy: The public believes Common Core is not the solution to the academic standards problems schools in their community may be facing. Over time Common Core has become a polarized issue. PDK/Gallup Online and by phone Survey: (August, 2015 N=3499 adults online, 1001 adults by phone) Do you favor or oppose having the teacher in your community use the common core state standards to guide what they teach? 30

Policy: Following the passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) last year, more than half of all superintendents predict that ESSA will have a positive effect on education in their schools – greater freedom to set curriculum at state level. Perceptions of the Impact of ESSA Will Have on Own District/School 31 Gallup and NWEA telephone survey: (Jan-Feb, 2016)

Testing: Adults think students spend too much time taking tests. Students say “about the right amount.” Gallup and NWEA telephone survey: (Jan-Feb, 2016) 32 Evaluation of Time Students Spend Taking Tests and Assessments in Class

Funding: Most Americans, including a majority of African American and Latinos, see the lack of school funding for public schools as a problem in their community. 33 PRRI American Values Survey. September 2015

Pre-K: U.S. adults agree with the idea of providing free childcare and pre-K programs for all Americans. Gallup telephone survey: college.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles (April 21-24, 2016) college.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles Support for Proposal to Enact Free Universal Child Care, Pre-K Programs 34

Democratic and Democratic-leaning Americans overwhelmingly agree with the idea of providing free childcare and pre-K programs for all Americans. Gallup telephone survey: college.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles (April 21-24, 2016) college.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles Support for Proposal to Enact Free Universal Child Care, Pre-K Programs 35

Making tuition free is more divisive. Americans' Support for Democrats' Education Policy Proposals 36 Gallup telephone survey: college.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles (April 21-24, 2016) college.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

Jonathan Voss Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com Questions? Comments?