Challenges and Opportunities for Natural Gas: Lessons From This Winter Stan Horton Chairman & CEO Enron Gas Pipeline Group Natural Gas Roundtable Washington,

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Presentation transcript:

Challenges and Opportunities for Natural Gas: Lessons From This Winter Stan Horton Chairman & CEO Enron Gas Pipeline Group Natural Gas Roundtable Washington, D.C. March 15, 2001 ®

2001 SH-Challenges Proved and Potential U.S. Natural Gas Resources Current estimates: 1,470 average Shortage Era Trillion Cubic Feet

2001 SH-Challenges U.S. Natural Gas Replenishment YE 1944 Reserves Production YE 2000 Reserves Trillion Cubic Feet--Proved Reserves

2001 SH-Challenges Alaska Total U.S Offshore Source: U.S. DOE EIA UT WY App. +All others TX ALA CO KS OK NM LA U.S. proved natural gas reserves increased 2% in U.S. Proved Natural Gas Reserves (TCF)

2001 SH-Challenges Canadian Natural Gas Replenishment Trillion Cubic Feet--Proved Reserves YE 1964 Reserves Production YE 2000 Reserves

2001 SH-Challenges Canadian Proved Natural Gas Reserves (TCF) Source: Oil & Gas Journal, 12/18/ MC-USPipelineTrans Canadian proved natural gas reserves fell 4.5% in 2000

2001 SH-Challenges U.S. Average Gas Prices by Sector 1985 vs (2000$/MMBTU) -26% -34% -33% -26% $9.90 $7.29 $8.73 $5.75 $6.05 $4.06 $3.89 $5.22 Source: Energy Information Administration (U.S. DOE) * Through October

2001 SH-Challenges U.S. Residential Natural Gas Prices Since 1984 (1999 $/MMBTU) Source: U.S. DOE (EIA) Residentials users payed the same prices this winter as in /2001 Winter Estimate

2001 SH-Challenges U.S. Natural Gas City Gate Cost Decline (Billions 1999$) Source: U.S. DOE Natural Gas Annual, Table 21, and Natural Gas Monthly, May 2000 $174.2 Total savings since 1984 [Price savings volume = total savings] x

2001 SH-Challenges Natural Gas: A Maturing Financial Commodity

2001 SH-Challenges Comparative Annualized Daily Volatility

2001 SH-Challenges Trading Margins Natural Gas vs. Electricity (MMBTU equivalent - October 2000 Spreads) Natural Gas Electricity Efficient Wholesale Pipeline System Inefficient Wholesale Grid

2001 SH-Challenges /01 Winter Price Hedging

2001 SH-Challenges Backwardation Price Curve for Wellhead Gas ($/MMBtu) Source: NYMEX (September 15, 2000) $4.80 Winter 02/03 $5.50 Next Winter

2001 SH-Challenges Natural Gas: Lessons From This Winter All about economics (supply and demand) Unique weather drivers System tested but performed Wake-up call for future

2001 SH-Challenges West1, ,700 Midwest1, ,675 South Central ,785 Northeast1, ,270 South Atlantic1, ,220 Range5, ,650 Gas Demand Growth by 2005 Three Major Forecasts (in MMcf/d) Source: Various Consultants Forecasts (2000 vs. 2005) MC-Forecasts % Variance

2001 SH-Challenges Natural Gas: Areas for Improvement Expedite incentives for supply and infrastructure Use of financial markets to control uncertainty Better coordination and support within gas industry

2001 SH-Challenges U.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Resources Subject to Access Restrictions *29 Tcf closed; 108 Tcf available restrictions Source: National Petroleum Council