Leading the way; making a difference Tanker market key driving forces European Panel - Copenhagen - 8 October Erik Ranheim Senior Manager Research & Projects INTERTANKO

Leading the way; Making a difference The state of the industry The main driving force Oil supply and demand Product supply and demand Tanker deliveries and scrapping Strategic considerations Overview

Leading the way; Making a difference The state of the industry

Leading the way; Making a difference Average freight rates years backwards $/day

Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker demand oil products and crude oil tonne miles and tonnes transported Billion tonne miles Million tonnes

Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker Fleet Development m dwt Number

Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker indices %

Leading the way; Making a difference Productivity Tonne mile /dwt

Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker ownership, period and spot market

Leading the way; making a difference USD per gallon Gasoline price at the pump January 2012 Oil consumption per capita Oil price Tax Ref. margin

Leading the way; Making a difference No incidents 1,000 ts pollution

Leading the way; Making a difference The main driving forces

Leading the way; making a difference Oil price and freight rates $ per barrel

Leading the way; Making a difference Technical development Difficult accessible oil profitable Alternative energy more profitable Saving energy more profitable Economic of shipping changed Changing political situation Good for the environment Consequences of high oil price In End September 2004 the Brent Blend oil price was some $47 per barrel which at that time was regarded to be high. An annual increase of 7% would give an oil price today of some $92 per barrel today.

Leading the way; Making a difference Oil Supply and demand

Leading the way; Making a difference World net oil export mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference World oil demand - OECD/non-OECD mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference Net oil import US and China - % of consumption China

Leading the way; Making a difference US and N Sea Crude Oil Production mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference US crude oil production and import mbd Source: EIA

Leading the way; Making a difference US petroleum product import and export mbd Source: EIA

Leading the way; Making a difference US oil import by source mbd per countrymbd total

Leading the way; Making a difference US. crude oil production by source, mbd mbd Source: EIA

Leading the way; Making a difference Oil products

Leading the way; Making a difference OECD oil product import by source mbd per countrymbd total

Leading the way; Making a difference Product trade to Europe by source mbd per country mbd total

Leading the way; Making a difference Intra European product trade by source 000 ts per country Source: IEA

Leading the way; Making a difference Major product exporters mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference Major product importers mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference Global crude distillation capacity mbd per areambd world

Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker deliveries and scrapping

Leading the way; Making a difference Deliveries, sales for decommissioning and conversion of tankers and combos m dwt Number Source: INTERTANKO, various

Leading the way; Making a difference Strategic considerations

Leading the way; making a difference Strategic considerations World economy still weak IMF boss Ms. Lagarde Tense conflict areas in Europe, Asia, Africa, Mdl E ….. Oil price high - despite decline US boosting oil production- changing the energy world Oil demand OECD retracting/Asia expanding Age >15 years becoming an issue Shipbuilding over-capacity Low fleet growth 2014/15 but increasing again in 2016 High bunker prices change economics in shipping/ slow steaming Market increasingly complex The only predictability about the future tanker market is its unpredictability

Leading the way; Making a difference Others

Leading the way; Making a difference 10 largest oil consumers 2014 mbd Litres per capita per year Source: Various

Leading the way; Making a difference Net oil import US and China as % of consumption

Leading the way; Making a difference Economic, oil market and seaborne trade growth %

Leading the way; Making a difference Middle East oil Export 1990/

Leading the way; Making a difference US and N Sea Crude Oil Production mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference Major oil import areas mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference Oil trade to Europe mbd

Leading the way; Making a difference Global Crude Distillation Capacity

Leading the way; Making a difference Suezmax spot discharge 2013

Leading the way; Making a difference Aframax spot discharge 2013

Leading the way; Making a difference Long term - mtoe Total energy Transportation By Continent Source: BP