Swain Hall West- 1 st Floor DVB office 007 Stairs Student Services office (drop/add) Secretary’s office

Swain Hall West- 2 nd Floor Physics Forum Library

Some useful Websites for this Course (US DOE Energy Information Administration) (International Energy Agency) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). (U.S. DOE Energy Efficiency and renewable energy). world-factbook/index.html (CIA world fact book) world-factbook/index.html

Objectives for the Course: Provide a basic foundation regarding the language, technology, and science of energy. Develop skills needed for quantitative analysis of problems related to energy. Encourage you to develop skills needed to acquire, assess and analyse information related to energy. (of course, we also hope that much of this practice will also find application in other aspects of your studies).

Energy Issues in a nutshell: What is Energy? How do we find it, measure it, use it, store it, etc.? What is the science behind it, and how does that interplay with the economics? What technologies are coming online to change the way we deliver or utilize energy? What technologies might become available in the future?

Adding numbers requires the right UNITS!! This sign makes no sense, you can’t add years and people!

U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads) 7  85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels; 8% is from nuclear; 6% is from renewables.  Most imported energy is petroleum, which is used for transportation.  The end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) all use comparable amounts of energy.

2007

Energy appetites for each sector (2006)

U.S Renewable energy sector (2005)

Energy Source Distribution

NOTE the difference In the nature of the mix!

U.S. Historical Trends H&K fig 1.6, 1.7

Possible sources for first article summary These could also be starting points for your term paper (or later article summary)

World Oil Prices since 1970 (H&K fig. 1.14)

H&K fig. 1.3 Industrialized nations predicted to have 1%/yr growth, developing nations 3%/yr

Exponential Growth/Decay Time rate of change of X is PROPORTIONAL to X itself “ y Proportional to x” => y=rx (r is a constant) For our case here: dX/dt=rX (if you like calculus) [if not, then just skip to the answer below!] Solution to this is: X=X o e rt ln(X) = ln(X o ) + rt

Exponential Growth/Decay Time rate of change of X is PROPORTIONAL to X itself “ y Proportional to x” => y=rx (r is a constant) For our case here: dX/dt=rX (if you like calculus) [if not, then just skip to the answer below!] Solution to this is: X=X o e rt ln(X) = ln(X o ) + rt

U.S. Wind power since 1995 (mQuads energydelivered/year) From EIA website Annual Energy Report: % annual growth DATA FIT

A subtle point “Annual compounding” is not the same thing as “continuous compounding”, so you have to be a little careful with how you discuss annual growth rates. True exponential growth with a rate of 7.5%/yr for two years gives an increase of: X=X o e 0.075/yr*2yr =1.162*X o An “annually compounded” interest rate of 7.5%/yr gives: X=X o *(1.075) 2 =1.156*X o i.e. e is not exactly equal to (it’s really , so it is slightly bigger). The difference between the two cases is greater if you consider greater periods of time.

Hubbert Curve H&K fig World Coal Production Curve

Hubbert Curve H&K fig Exponential extrapolation World Coal Production Curve Data

Hubbert Curve H&K fig Exponential extrapolation World Coal Production Curve Data Finite resource -> Final answer is 0 Exponential growth CANNOT be sustained in a World of FINITE resources!!

Hubbert Curves H&K fig H&K fig US Oil production US Natural Gas production

CO 2 Concentrations and Temperature Change Note that total temperature change across several ice ages was only about 12 o C or about 22 o F.

Energy Conversions (Table 2.2) Incandescent light digestion thermal