Revisions to the Rhode Island GHG Emissions Draft Baseline Charles Heaps Stockholm Environment Institute - U.S. Center 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA Tel: +1 (617) Fax: +1 (617) Web:

Revised RI GHG Emissions Draft Baseline (2007) Baseline has been revised for first time in 5 years. –Helps to assess how measures are doing compared to adopted GHG targets. –Provides revised basis for economic analysis (e.g. new price forecasts). A new and simpler baseline methodology has been adopted… –Eliminates end-use detail. –Now based primarily on EIA State energy data reports for consumption data (sector by fuel detail only) –Uses EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2006) results for New England to forecast consumption growth and future electric sector mix. –No changes made to non-energy sector baseline. –No changes made to emissions factors. Does not explicitly account for any implemented RI measures. –EIA historical data goes to 2003, but RI mitigation efforts are probably not figured into AEO’s growth rates.

Warning: Change in Units! In the past we have shown GHG emissions results as the Global Warming Potential of all greenhouse gases in Metric Tonnes of Carbon equivalent. We are now going to use U.S. Short Tons. (1 Metric Tonne = 1.1 Short Tons) To convert results into CO2 equivalent from Carbon equivalent multiply by 3.67.

AEO2000 vs. AEO2006 Assumptions & Results (Annual average growth rates for whole U.S.) * Natural gas prices show slower growth in AEO2006, but gas prices also jumped by 50% from 1998 to So natural gas use declines vs. older baseline.

Old RI GHG Emissions Baseline (2001) Other (e.g. forestry)

New RI GHG Emissions Baseline (2007) Other (e.g. forestry)

Difference in RI GHG Baselines (New-Old) Historical values almost the same. (some data revisions) 2020 emissions: 5% less vs. old baseline Reflects lower annual average GHG growth rates (0.48%/yr vs. 0.74%/yr from )

Longer Historical Perspective is Interesting... Drop in RI industrial emissions from due to improved efficiency & industry leaving RI.

Differences in New England Electric Sector Mix More nuclear More coal Less natural gas More renewables

2001 Baseline, Measures &Target

Revised Baseline & Target

Revised Baseline Showing Previously Modeled Measures (Preliminary) Assumes savings are constants (subtracted from new baseline). Measures modeling still to be revised (e.g. does not include RGGI.)

Next Modeling Steps Measures will be rerun against new baseline. Outputs: GHG savings, economic costs/benefits and criteria pollutants. Will also add RGGI to analysis. Results to be presented at next stakeholder meeting. Need to discuss with RI GHG group on appropriate approach for modeling RGGI.