National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee 4 PM CDT Saturday 3 September 2011

Tropical Storm Lee Satellite Imagery Center of Lee starting to make landfall near south of New Iberia Louisiana. Very large eastern rain-band extends well offshore with strongest storms 100 to 500 miles south of the Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf coasts. This band of heavier rain and storms will start move inland over SE Mississippi, SW Alabama tonight and NW Florida. Tropical storm force winds (>=39 mph) extend eastward 200 miles from the center. Center of Lee starting to make landfall near south of New Iberia Louisiana. Very large eastern rain-band extends well offshore with strongest storms 100 to 500 miles south of the Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf coasts. This band of heavier rain and storms will start move inland over SE Mississippi, SW Alabama tonight and NW Florida. Tropical storm force winds (>=39 mph) extend eastward 200 miles from the center.

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories Tropical Storm Warning Alabama Coast Tropical Storm Watch in NWS Florida Upgraded to Tropical Storm Warning Tropical Storm Warning Alabama Coast Tropical Storm Watch in NWS Florida Upgraded to Tropical Storm Warning Flash Flood Watch being expanded to areas southwest of a line from Butler to Crestview

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities

Heavy Rain Impacts Main threat for significant flooding appears to be setting up southwest of a Butler Alabama to Crestview Florida line in the red shaded areas where 10 to 15 inches of rain could fall through Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible. Flooding of small streams and poor draining areas could start late today into Sunday as grounds become saturated. Many river systems in SE Mississippi and SW Alabama will rise to flood stage starting on Monday. A few rivers in the western Florida panhandle will rise to minor flood stage Tuesday into Wednesday. The heavy rain threat could still shift a bit farther to the east based on the eventual strength of the eastern rain bands with Tropical Storm Lee. Waynesboro Wiggins Leakesville Mobile Gulf Shores Pensacola Destin Evergreen Andalusia Greenville Grove Hill Monroeville Butler NWS Mobile - Pensacola Projected Rain Totals (SAT 3 SEP -TUE 6 SEP) Crestview

Tornado Impacts We will have to be alert for quick development of short lived tornadoes in stronger cells with the bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lee. Tornado Watch in effect through this evening. Expect the threat of brief tornadoes to continue into Sunday. Movement of the cells will be generally southeast to northwest.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Sunday 12 AM CDT12 PM CDT 35G45KT 30G40KT 20G30KT 10G20KT 20G30KT 20G30KT 10G20KT 20G30KT 35G45KT 30G40KT Winds 30 mph with periodic gusts of 40 mph in squalls along the coast. Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Monday 12 AM CDT12 PM CDT 20G30KT 10G20KT 25G35KT 35G45KT 30G40KT 25G35KT 35G45KT Winds picking up to 30 mph over inland areas with periodic gusts to 40 mph possible in heavier rain bands. Tropical Storm Lee will likely be weakening to a tropical depression by late Monday. Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Tuesday 12 AM CDT12 PM CDT 25G35KT 30G40KT 35G45KT 15G25KT 10G20KT 15G25KT 20G30KT Winds relaxing to 15 to 25 mph and becoming northwesterly as the center of then Tropical Depression Lee passes to the north.

Coastal Flood and Beach Impacts Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves in the surf zone of 6 to 8 feet are expected through Monday. Large wave run-up to the dunes expected at the beaches during high tide in the early morning hours. Some minor beach erosion possible. Tide observed to be 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide along the Alabama coast…1 to 2 feet above normal tide along the western Florida panhandle. Minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible during period of high tide early Sunday morning and early Monday morning. Minor flooding will be along the immediate coast, especially along the Mobile Bay Causeway, the Highway 193 Causeway to Dauphin Island, west end of Dauphin Island, and Fort Pickens near Pensacola. High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents

Marine Impacts …Tropical Storm Warning in Effect… Offshore winds increasing to 30 to 40 knots with gusts to 45 knots in squalls. Seas 12 to 16 feet. Conditions not likely improving until Tuesday evening.

Projected Impact Assessment Saturday Through Monday For SE Mississippi, SW Alabama and NW Florida RainwaterFloodSurge Coastal Flood RipCurrentsBeachErosionWindTornado High Moderate High Moderate Extreme High Moderate Low None LowLow WFO Mobile

Central Alabama Hazards Tonight - Breezy winds mph and gusty, rain bands slowly spread into southern counties. Sunday – Rain bands will reach farther north through the day, with amounts from inches. Wind gradually increasing. Concern for developing potential of tropical tornadoes. Monday & Tuesday – Best chance for heavy rain and strong winds. Rain total from 2 inches far east to 6 inches across the west and north. Wind Advisory and Flash Flood Watch appear likely. Main concerns: Possible flash flooding in persistent locally heavy rain areas especially in urban areas Tropical tornadic development Sunday afternoon and evening Potential for more widespread river flooding by mid week. Tonight - Breezy winds mph and gusty, rain bands slowly spread into southern counties. Sunday – Rain bands will reach farther north through the day, with amounts from inches. Wind gradually increasing. Concern for developing potential of tropical tornadoes. Monday & Tuesday – Best chance for heavy rain and strong winds. Rain total from 2 inches far east to 6 inches across the west and north. Wind Advisory and Flash Flood Watch appear likely. Main concerns: Possible flash flooding in persistent locally heavy rain areas especially in urban areas Tropical tornadic development Sunday afternoon and evening Potential for more widespread river flooding by mid week.

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