Trends ASAP by Actuarial Services and Programs Evaluating Changes in Claim Frequency, Claim Costs, and Loss Costs

Purpose of Program Provide the results of 6 models of the trend in insurance statistics. Their measures of fit are provided to facilitate the user’s selection of the best estimate of future change in claim frequency, claim costs, and loss costs.

Types of Trends in Losses Change in claim frequency Change in average claim cost Change is loss costs (a combination of frequency and claim cost)

Source of Experience Insurance Statistics Claim Frequency Claim Costs Loss Costs or the underlying Earned Exposure Claim Counts Losses Other, such as: Government indices Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index

Experience Entry or Loading Three methods are provided: 1. Manual entry on screens 2. Text file loading 3. Retrieval of a prior analysis Accepts up to 240 data points.

Optional Adjustments to Data Adjust for exposure units (ie per $1,000) Calculate Moving Averages (ie 12-month) Use every n-th data point (ie every 3 rd ) Number of latest data points to analyze

Risk Trend Models Y = A + BX Y = A * [Exp ^ (BX) ] Y = A * [ X^B ] Y = A + B/X Y = 1 / [ A + BX ] Y = X / [ AX + B ] Fit by least squares regression.

Information Provided for Each Trend Measure For all 6 models: Correlation coefficient Latest annual change. In addition, for selected model: Curve parameters Spearman’s rank correlation Claim credibility Fitted values Confidence range.

Built-in User Conveniences Can select level of detail to include, and data entry modified accordingly. Tab sequenced through program, with current focus highlighted in yellow. Required steps highlighted and cannot be extinguished until executed. Summary Exhibit displays criteria included in analysis. Creates output file for later retrieval in full detail or ing. Retrieved file may be up dated for new analysis.

Graphic: Policy Year vs. Calendar Accident Year

Filing Exhibit Produced An exhibit with the selected trend model and its criteria are produced in final form for inclusion in a filing. The level of detail displayed on the filing exhibit may be modified by the user. All details defining the filing exhibit are also retained in the saved file.

Notes on Loss Trending Risk Trend assumes each month is of uniform length. Risk Trend assigns the “X” value to the ending dates of each experience period. Credibility is assigned based on the number of claims in the latest experience period and the full credibility standard the user selected. The annual change is the change projected 1 year beyond the latest data point divided by the latest data point. The following are comments on trending procedures but are not incorporated in the regression models:

Trend from Mid-Point of Experience

Length of Loss Trend Period from mid-point of experience to average loss date under the future rates

Program Requirements Visual Basic Program for PC use Need Windows’ platform Size: 2.2 MB Reads and writes ASCII text files created by program or easily obtained from Excel files and editable as notebook files:.txt

Trends ASAP Contact Information Trends ASAP is designed, produced and marketed by: R. Stephen Pulis, ACAS, MAAA Actuarial Services and Programs 1155 Flagmore Drive Katy, TX (281) See Price Sheet for costs to purchase or rent.Price Sheet