Peter Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute University of Missouri George Knapek, Marc Raulston Agricultural and Food Policy Center Texas A&M University National Farm Business Management Conference Sioux Falls, SD June 13, 2016

 Project overview  Climate change discussion  Producer’s perspective  Farm level analysis  Earlier planting date  Producer’s reactions  Summary and questions

 Climate change  Is it happening?  Global warming??  Who or what is causing it??  It’s a hot topic!!  Science or myth?  Scientists continue to study the climate  Does anyone ask the farmer what they think? How they are adapting??

 Integrate research and extension activities to:  Inform climate change adaptation strategies ▪ Producers ▪ Extension ▪ Policy makers  Create deeper understanding of: ▪ Climate variability ▪ Agricultural impacts ▪ Barriers to adaptation

 Collaboration of universities  University of Missouri ▪ Market & farm level impacts  Texas A&M University ▪ Farm level impacts  University of California – Merced & Santa Cruz ▪ Climate Modeling  Funding from USDA-AFRI

 Farm level work  Utilize existing network of representative farm panels ▪ 13 representative crop farms selected ▪ Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, Missouri, Alabama  Meet with panels twice ▪ Pre and post analysis ▪ Pre – farmers perspective on climate change, what climate/weather data would they use to make decisions ▪ Post – present results and discuss adaptation to changing climate

 Initial thoughts on climate change discussion  How to ask about climate change  What climate/weather data/metrics would they like to see  Where does climate change rank in their list of long term worries ▪ Developed a questionnaire

 Questionnaire  What is attitude towards climate change? ▪ Climate is changing, but has been since the beginning of time ▪ Do not feel like man is causing it, caused by natural things (i.e. volcanoes)  How are you dealing with climate change? ▪ Genetics in seed helping with drought resistance ▪ More/better irrigation ▪ Changes in crop mix ▪ North Dakota farmers said 20 years ago would not have as much corn as they do today ▪ More no-till, minimum till ▪ Crop insurance ▪ Larger equipment

 Questionnaire  List long term concerns of climate change ▪ Not thinking much long term, deal with it as it occurs ▪ Not losing sleep thinking or worrying about what will happen years down the road, more concerned with this year  What is your level of knowledge about climate change? ▪ Aware it is happening because they deal with weather daily ▪ Do not feel it is being caused by man ▪ Think it is over sensationalized by media

 Questionnaire  How do you see yourself adapting to changes ▪ Hotter/dryer – irrigation, no-till, genetics, larger equipment ▪ Wetter/cooler – tile terrace/drain, genetics, larger equipment ▪ If the frequency changes – crop insurance  What outputs would you use to make decisions about climate change? ▪ Rainfall, temperatures, soil moisture content, freeze dates, wind, growing degree days/heat units, soil temp

 Pre and post analysis discussions  Pre ▪ Extensive discussions about their thoughts on climate change ▪ Determine what variables would be useful to report after climate scenario runs  Post ▪ Discuss financial and climate results ▪ Collect producers thoughts and ideas about how they would use the information going forward

 Baseline versus scenario analysis  Baseline includes: ▪ Yields from panel members ▪ Prices from January 2015 FAPRI Stochastic Baseline  Alternative scenario includes: ▪ 30 day earlier planting window ▪ Includes changes to producer yields ▪ Price shocks of the January 2015 baseline as a result of the climate scenario

Average Baseline Alternative Change in Yield Change in CV Basically this means slightly lower (2.91%) and riskier yields

Average Baseline Alternative Change in Yield -3.4 Change in CV Much like corn, but even worse on percentage (8.30%) terms

Average Baseline Alternative Change % Change

 Producers deal with weather change/uncertainty on a daily basis  Constantly adapting to changes in climate  Do not worry/think about long term consequences  Worried about staying in business  Feel like advances in seed genetics have helped them significantly  Utilize crop insurance extensively

 Where do we go from here:  Starting to meet with producer panels for the Post discussion  Update analysis to include January 2016 FAPRI Stochastic Baseline  Summarize results and write reports/articles for publishing

 FAPRI-MU website   To contact Peter Zimmel:  