1 A Lay of the Land in 2016 Celinda Lake Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com

2 Race for the Senate 2016: Trends & Key States to Watch

Democrats have a strong chance to win back the Senate in 2016 after losing their majority last fall. Republicans must defend over 20 seats, including six seats in states that President Obama won twice. Cook Political Report 6

4 Ron Johnson Russ Feingold Russ Feingold is supported by 49 percent of registered voters, with Republican incumbent Ron Johnson receiving 37 percent. In January, Feingold was at 50 percent and Johnson was at 37 percent. There has been little movement in the Senate race since November when Feingold received 49 percent and Johnson 38 percent. Wisconsin Feb , 2016 Marquette Poll of 802 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points

5 Kelly AyotteMaggie Hassan If the 2016 senate election was held today, 45% of likely voters say they would vote for Ayotte, 41% would vote for Hassan, 4% would vote for someone else and 10% are undecided. This senate race will be one of the most closely watched races in the nation and likely the most expensive election in New Hampshire history. New Hampshire WMUR Granite State Poll of 687 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were between February 20 and February 28, The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.7 percent for the entire sample. Included were six hundred twenty-eight (628) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE +/- 3.9%)..

Ohio Ted StricklandRob Portman 11 PPP Survey of 1,248 Ohio voters, including 638 likely Republican primary voters and 508 likely Democratic primary voters between March 4th and 6 th, The margin of error is +/-2.8% overall, +/-3.9% for the Republicans and +/-4.4% for the Democrats. The general election matchup in Ohio is extremely tight, with Strickland getting 41% to Portman's 40%. Portman and Strickland have very similar images with voters in the state. Strickland : 35% Favorable; 39% unfavorable Portman: 35% Favorable; 38% Unfavorable

7 Democratic Senatorial Primary Pennsylvania Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey enjoys a lead over his two most prominent potential Democratic challengers, Joe Sestak and Katie McGinty. WMUR Granite State Poll of 687 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were between February 20 and February 28, The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.7 percent for the entire sample. Included were six hundred twenty-eight (628) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE +/- 3.9%)..

8 In a matchup between Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona voters are split. The race between McCain and Kirkpatrick is competitive across all demographic groups, with the exception of social conservatism/liberalism. The more conservative voters are, the more likely they are to support McCain. Source: Merrill Poll conducted March 7-11, 2016 with a statewide sample of 701 Arizona voters who are most likely to vote. Data were weighted based on party registration to reflect the population and included 45 percent Republicans, 33 percent Democrats and 22 percent Independents. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 16 percent in Pima county, and 25 percent in Arizona’s other counties. Forty-eight percent were women and 52 percent were men. The sampling error was plus or minus 3.7 percent. John McCain Ann Kirkpatrick Arizona

9 The Senate race is tight, with Richard Burr holding just a 5 point lead over Deborah Ross. The race in North Carolina shows the way Donald Trump could make life harder for other Republican candidates down ballot this fall. North Carolina Richard Burr Deborah Ross Public Policy Polling survey of 843 registered voters in North Carolina from March 18th to 20th. The margin of error is +/-3.4%

California While a signifignat portion of voters remain undecided, California will likely find itself choosing between two Democrats when voting to fill the seat of retiring Senator Barbara Boxer. Attorney General Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez hold the two top spots in the contest which, under the states top two primary system, would pit them against one another in the primary and general elections. Republican Ron Unz also joined the race last week. Source: Dec 15 – Jan 3 Field Poll of 730 registered voters in California 12

Florida 19 Democrats lead 5 of 6 potential Senate match ups, although all of them are by narrow margins and there are a lot of undecided voters because of the low name recognition of all the candidates. Patrick Murphy leads the 3 top Republican contenders by an average of 7 points while Alan Grayson leads the top 3 Republicans by an average of 2 points : Source: Merrill Poll conducted March 7-11, 2016 with a statewide sample of 701 Arizona voters who are most likely to vote. Data were weighted based on party registration to reflect the population and included 45 percent Republicans, 33 percent Democrats and 22 percent Independents. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 16 percent in Pima county, and 25 percent in Arizona’s other counties. Forty-eight percent were women and 52 percent were men. The sampling error was plus or minus 3.7 percent.

Wining back control of the House of Representatives is a harder challenge for Democrats in Democrats should be able to pick up House seats lost in 2014, but winning the majority remains an uphill battle with several vulnerable incumbents. DCCC’s Frontline Program for vulnerable incumbents Roll Call Roll Call & CNNCNN Did not go far enough Went to far NRCC’s Target List  Ami Bera (CA-07)  Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01)  Ann McLane Kuster (NH-02)  Brad Ashford (NE-02)  Cheri Bustos (IL-17)  Gwen Graham (FL02)  Julia Brownley (CA-26)  Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09)  Pete Aguilar (CA-31)  Raul Ruiz (CA-36)  Rick Nolan (MN-08)  Scott Peters (CA-52)  Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18)  Ami Bera (CA-07)  Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01)  Annie Kuster (NH-02)  Ben Ray Lujan (NM-03)  Brad Ashford (NE-02)  Cheri Bustos (IL-17)  Collin Peterson (MN-07)  Elizabeth Esty (CT-05)  Gwen Graham (FL-02)  John Garamendi (CA-03)  Julia Brownley (CA-26)  Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09)  Patrick Murphy (FL-18)  Pete Aguilar (CA-31)  Rick Nolan (MN-08)  Scott Peters (CA-52)  Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18)  Steve Israel (NY-03) 13

Comprehensive Immigration Reform

Voters strongly support comprehensive immigration reform. Source: Gallup Poll, June 15-July 10,

Worse % saying immigrants coming into the United States make American Society worse/better in the long run Better Worse Better % saying immigrants coming into the United States make the economy worse/better American Society The Economy About half (53%) of Republicans say immigrants coming to the U.S. make society worse in the long run, compared with just 24% of Democrats. There are similar partisan differences in opinions about the impact immigrants are having on the economy Source: Pew Research Center American Trends Panel survey conducted March 10-April 6,

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com Celinda Lake