Covering Climate in New Mexico Laura Paskus New Mexico In Depth nmindepth.com

“The warm spring temperatures are one of the clearest observed climate change signals in North America. A warm, dry spring is death to snowpack: The snow sublimates and doesn’t get into the river. So a low forecast turns into an abysmal forecast.” Dr. David Gutzler, University of New Mexico Earth and Planetary Studies Department

Rio Grande in Albuquerque, May 4, 2015

May 25, 2015

May 4, 2015May 25, 2015

Study published in Environmental Research Letters shows that decreasing snowfall and rainfall will put many western water supplies at risk in the coming century. Authors looked at 400+ river basins in the Northern Hemisphere and how they may--or may not--meet future water demands. Among the most vulnerable basins? The Rio Grande and the Colorado River basins, both of which supply water to New Mexico.

“The first thing to realize is that this year is going to be a real eye-opener. We’re going to see the world temperature record broken, or more like shattered. It’s going to be in that one degree range, if not by the end of this year, then very soon thereafter. That, from a scientist’s point of view, is pretty scary.” Jonathan Overpeck University of Arizona’s Institute of the Environment

July 2012, Los Lunas

Mesilla, Jan. 2014

In the Sandia Mountains, there are more than 9,000 acres of dead conifers.

West-wide changes Most of the western US has warmed by about 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the historical norms from The frost-free season has increased in length by 15 to 20 percent. That trend is expected to continue into the future, with a 60 to 70 percent increase in many mountain areas While precipitation is more difficult for scientists to predict than temperatures, annual average precipitation totals will increase in northern states and decrease in the south, especially in the Southwest. Those changes are projected to be small—but “both wet and dry extremes are projected to increase substantially and almost everywhere.” “Very heavy” precipitation events will increase Dry spells will lengthen in most regions Snowpack and snowfed systems will continue changing Dettinger, Udall, & Georgakakos paper, 2015, Ecological Applications

Gila River, Oct. 2013

Cultural expectations are abandoned with difficulty People try to persist until too late Social conflict and breakdown make the economy worse migration = ultimate solution to climate change 2010 talk by archaeologist Eric Blinman, “The Rear View Window: 2,000 Years of People and Climate Change in the Southwest.”

“My worry is that no one wants to ever propose something because you’re going to piss someone off. It’s not good enough—and all of us need to do better.” Rep. Bill McCamley, D-Las Cruces

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Contact: Laura Paskus New Mexico In Depth “At the Precipice: New Mexico’s Changing Climate” climate/