Introduction to Crystal Ball BINARY SEMANTICS Ltd. we are a client centric global software development company providing software development, research,

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Presentation transcript:

Introduction to Crystal Ball BINARY SEMANTICS Ltd. we are a client centric global software development company providing software development, research, web development, IT outsourcing services along with optimization and mathematical modeling solutions and consulting services for your mission-critical business challenges. We have global operations across USA, Canada, Europe and India and have over 125 satisfied customers.software development web developmentIT outsourcing services optimizationmathematical modeling solutionsconsulting services We have very strong software engineering processes and our operations have been certified as ISO 9001 and Q9001:2000 by American Quality Assessor (AQA) for software development and supporting activities. 1

Introduction to Crystal Ball Data Mining TIBCO Spotfire Miner SAS Statistical Modelling Tibco Spotfire Splus SAS JMP Risk Analysis & Simulation Oracle Crystal Ball Optmization LINDO API LINGO What’s Best List of Solutions for Data Analysis Econometrics EViews LIMDEP NLOGIT Quality – Six Sigma & CMMI SigmaXL Pareto Pro JMP

Introduction to Crystal Ball Oracle crystal ball Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application suite for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions. 3

Introduction to Crystal Ball Its used by customers from a broad range of Industries such as aerospace, financial services, manufacturing, oil and gas, pharmaceutical, utilities, environmental sciences etc. Six sigma in manufacturing mainly & to some extent in BPO. CMM is one of the quality area in s/w areas. 4

Crystal Ball Training Introduction to Crystal Ball Models and Simulation

Introduction to Crystal Ball 6 What is a model? Replication or representation of a real system – Manufacturing-production models – Planning-queuing models – Financial-forecasting models Spreadsheet model – Set of mathematical and logical relationships – Vary conditions and assumptions to test scenarios  Deterministic: data assumed to be known with certainty  Probabilistic/stochastic

Introduction to Crystal Ball 7 What is Simulation? Process of experimenting with a model to measure performance and behavior of inputs in a system Gain general insight into the nature of a process Identify problems with system design Manage risk by understanding costs and benefits

Introduction to Crystal Ball 8 The Five Steps of Model Development 1. Develop the system flow diagram or algorithm. 2. Write an Excel spreadsheet to model the system. 3. Use Crystal Ball to model assumptions and forecasts. 4. Run the simulation and analyze the output. 5. Improve the system model and/or make decisions.

Introduction to Crystal Ball Getting Started with Crystal Ball

Introduction to Crystal Ball 10 Getting Started Launching Crystal Ball Basic Terminology Navigation

Introduction to Crystal Ball 11 Launching Crystal Ball Launch automatically with Excel after Crystal Ball installation –Start>Programs>Crystal Ball 7>Application Manager –Check the Crystal Ball box Start Manually –Start menu –Crystal Ball

Introduction to Crystal Ball 12 Basic Terminology Crystal Ball TermCommon Names Assumption Input, X, independent variable, random variable, probability distribution. Decision Variable Controlled variable Forecast Output, Y, f(X), dependent variable

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Introduction to Crystal Ball Analysis and Presentation of Results

Introduction to Crystal Ball 20 Analysis and Presentation of Results Running the Simulation Forecast Chart Overlay Chart Trend Chart Custom Report Generation Extract Data Saving Results

Introduction to Crystal Ball Basic Crystal Ball Tools

Introduction to Crystal Ball 22 Basic Crystal Ball Tools Tornado Chart - senstivity of a particularoutput cell. Batch Fit - auto fit p. dist. To multiple data series. Correlation Matrix - view and edit full corr. Matrix for a selected set of assumptions.

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