Southern Solar Update Near and Long Term Considerations

Transition Time As of January 2016, Louisiana has:  Nearly 20,000 solar energy systems  Approximately 100 million watts of installed solar energy, almost entirely residential rooftop solar  100 times more consumer-owned solar capacity than utility-owned solar capacity Solar energy in Louisiana:  Has provided over $400 million in economic impact from all systems installed since 2008 through construction, savings, consumer spending, taxes, and other direct benefits  Has been almost entirely driven by consumers. Very few commercial/utility projects Louisiana solar industry  Peaked mid-2015 at 3600 jobs, including 1200 direct positions in solar firms.  2016 estimates are about 10-20% of prior year jobs and capacity

Status: Markets Louisiana State solar credit policy instability Net Metering under attack (>90MW) Utilities dabbling in solar (< 10MW) New Orleans regulated separately, more stable Mississippi Net Metering “lite” began January 1, 2016 Co-Op utilities (70% of MS ratepayers) fighting for exception from NEM and MPSC rules Utilities investing in solar (100MW+ planned or completed) No utility scale wind developments in either state Federal incentives in late 2015, also REAP, MACRS

Status: Costs? The Cost of Doing Nothing Cost of Solar and Storage

Why not more Renewables? Coordinated policy opposition from well-funded groups Carbon denial investments by opposition in past decades Utilities not fast-moving (unless incentivized) Lack of political willpower Good News: Proven technology and policy options exist California is gold standard  Time of Use  Renewable Portfolio Standard  Balance of consumer and utility-corporate interests at utility commission Utility scale will continue to grow rapidly as costs and storage improve

Where are the solar advocates? Industry young and unorganized Common ground difficult to establish between industry sectors and advocates Limited by access to information (utilities control important data) No match for essentially unlimited resources of utilities and allies Ongoing Industry/Advocate Activity: Engagement in regulatory dockets, filings on pro-solar positions Informing policymakers and public

Driver: Utility Model Monopoly utility structure creates disincentive for distributed generation What’s the Fix? Houston - Deregulation New Orleans - Decoupling Net metering no longer a threat, but a feature Community solar: buy a small piece of a large farm, get dividends Energy Used Grid Costs Monopoly Model

Driver: Control and Climate Utilities at a transition point as well Fear of consumer generation trends Monopoly model depends on steady rate control, demand growth, new power plants Policy certainty – close relationship to regulators, heavy lobbying and campaign involvement, especially in LA COP21 Paris agreement, Clean Power Plan, individual state policies Increasingly visible impacts of climate change Acute relevance to New Orleans, state and region

Driver: Technology Solar cell and cost efficiency continue to improve rapidly Storage costs falling and technology maturing  Lithium battery technology projected to fall 50% or more in five years Intersection of storage and renewables improves capacity factor Electric vehicles, microgrids and resiliency Mobile phone revolution is an often-cited example of disruptive transition

Conclusion: You You've only lost when you’re convinced that what you do doesn't matter, doesn't change the course of things. Very few people are capable of understanding and leading on energy issues. You are the 1% that will turn people and institutions toward the right path

Thank You Gulf States Renewable Energy Industries Association gsreia.org Alliance for Affordable Energy all4energy.org