Climate Change & Security in South Asia: COOPERATING FOR PEACE

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND AFRICAN POLITICAL STABILITY (CCAPS) INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNANCE & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRON- MENTAL SECURITY EUROPEAN CLIMATE FOUNDATION BANGLADESH INSTITUTE FOR PEACE AND SECURITY STUDIES (BIPSS) AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT GMACCC Institutions

Climate Change: Implications for Defence Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report July 2014

Climate change impacts are projected to raise global average surface temperature 2.6–4.8 o C by Climate change poses an increasing threat to peace and security in the world. Armed forces globally will need to adapt to the changing environment and consider climate change impacts on infrastructure and military installations. Climate Change: Key Findings Climate change impacts can:  Undermine livelihoods  Increase involuntary migration  Reduce the ability of states to provide security

Climate change acts as a ‘threat multiplier’, amplifying existing vulnerabilities among populations and existing threats to security, and can indirectly increase risks of violent conflict. Climate change risks are highest in countries with weak or failing governments and/or with existing conflict. Climate impacts are likely to disproportionately affect these more vulnerable societies. ‘Threat Multiplier’ A factor that exacerbates the negative effects of other drivers of change. Climate Change: Key Findings

Societies’ responses to climate impacts may exceed the global or regional capacity to manage those responses peacefully. Issues of most concern include:  Populations displaced by extreme weather or sea-level rise  Spread of infectious disease  Lack of food and water The need for major humanitarian support is likely to increase. Climate Change: Key Findings

Military forces will be directly affected by climate change. Sea-level rise and other climate impacts will directly affect facilities, requiring a response. As major fossil fuel users, military forces may have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Change: Key Findings

Climate change will bring new challenges to states’ ability to share resources and provide human security. Changing resource availability may increase rivalry between states, while sea- level rise could raise disputes over national boundaries. Accordingly, climate change will increasingly shape national security policies. Further erosion of security can be mitigated by the presence of robust institutions. Security breakdowns and conflict generally emerge from the interactions of multiple factors. Climate Change: Key Findings

Increase in Drought and Inland Flooding Rising and Extreme Temperatures Geopolitical Concerns Declining Snow and Ice Cover Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Extreme Weather

Flexible Response Reducing Risk Planning for Displacement Anticipating Climate Risk Adjustments in Security Analysis Scenarios: Lack of Resources

Military Bases Support for Mass Displacement and Evacuation Refugee SupportMedical Support Humanitarian Operations Routine Military Operations

S outh Asia is on the front line in confronting the implications of climate change and addressing the consequences for security. Climate change could undermine peace and security in South Asia - a region which is already politically unstable and particularly vulnerable to further impacts. Rising temperatures, floods and irregular rain patterns will hit particularly hard in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, and are expected to exacerbate livelihood insecurity in the region This report outlines the drivers and perceptions of environmental security change within the region, illustrates the signs and impacts of climate change for South Asia and discusses the consequences of these impacts which can lead to important security challenges. The briefing – addressed especially to the security sector - also reports on what is already being done to address these challenges and concludes with specific recommendations for further action on the national, bi-lateral and regional levels where new climate strategies will need to be evolved. Continuous dialogue and cooperation on a common challenge such as climate change can act as a catalyst for long term peace in the region. If South Asia can achieve success in cooperation against this common and urgent challenge, it would be a model for other parts of the world.

Structure And Aim Of The Briefing:  Describes main environmental characteristics of South Asian region, identifying drivers and perceptions of environmental security, with focus on need and options for cooperation at three levels: transboundary river basin, regional and multi-lateral.  Underlines signs and impacts of climate change in particular, and discusses their impact on important security challenges.  Examines responses already in place, as well as those needed at national, bi-lateral and regional levels, especially on the role of the military.  Provides recommendations for national, regional and inter-national cooperation specifically for the security sector.  Mainstreams climate change in the security strategies of the countries as a vital pre-condition for progress for this cooperation.

Key Messages:  Climate change could undermine peace and security in South Asia.  Climate-related natural disasters will cause unprecedented large- scale migration – both, within and from the region.  Water scarcity increases the likelihood of conflict between countries.  Food insecurity can drive violent conflict within a country.  Military and humanitarian organisations will need forward looking strategies to deal with these impacts.  Environmental degradation is a major result of militarization of glaciers.  New climate strategies will need to be evolved.  Continuous dialogue is the key.

Introduction:  Emerging threats.  Characteristics of the South Asia environment.  Drivers and perceptions of environmental security change.  Transboundary river basin cooperation.  Regional cooperation.  Multilateral cooperation.

The Tibetan Plateau as seen from space.

Signs and impacts of climate change in the region  Rising temperatures.  Extreme weather events.  Glacier melting.  Sea level rise.  Infectious diseases.  Black carbon.

Security consequences of the impacts of climate change for the region  Water security.  Food security.  Natural Disasters.  Displacement and migration.  Environmental security.

Responses  National actions.  Role of the military.  Bi-lateral action.  Regional action.

Recommendations  Establish a regional advisory council to regularly analyse climate change related security threats and make. recommendations to governments, think tanks and civil society.  The consolidated report should be a prominent input into the security and military scenarios.  Climate change should be mainstreamed in all national policies and actions.  National strategies should also include information campaigns.  Military strategies in the region need to incorporate climate risks.  Military must curtail activities which impact on the environment.

 The countries in the region need to set up a cooperative mechanism, or a specific forum on climate change.  Existing cooperative frameworks in the region such as the Indus Waters Treaty and the new cooperation on the Sundarbans, should be strengthened and modernized.  South Asian countries should come together to prepare for the negotiations and decision-making at global climate conventions and frameworks. All concerned parties should recognize that, while South Asia has a long history of regional instability, continuous dialogue and cooperation on a common challenge such as climate change can act as a catalyst for long term peace in the region. If South Asia can achieve success in cooperation against this common and urgent challenge, it would be a model for other parts of the world.