Science Working Group: C. R. Mechoso (Chair) Atmosphere: C. Bretherton, R. Garreaud Ocean: B. Weller, J. McWilliams Field Experiment (US): C. Fairall, R. Wood Field Experiment (Chile): J. Rutllant, O. Pizarro VAMOS Project Office: J. Meitin on Program Requirements

NOAA Strategy and Goals Vision A vastly enhanced scientific understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem available to society and national leadership as a basis for critical social and economic policy decisions Mission To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic, social and environmental needs. Goals Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond Serve society’s needs for weather and water information Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission

Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their Plans and decisions A Predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Climate Predictions and Projections Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions. Climate Forcing Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to change in the Earth’s climate. Climate and Ecosystems Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. Observations and Analysis Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observation, analysis, and data stewardship. Increase availability of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making Regional Decision Support Program Performance objective Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond NOAA Climate Program Strategy

VOCALS Goals and Objectives The overall goal of VOCALS is to develop and promote scientific activities leading to improved understanding, model simulations, and predictions of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system, on diurnal to interannual timescales. The science objectives of VOCALS include: Improving the understanding and simulation of aerosol-cloud- drizzle interactions in the marine PBL. Improving the understanding and simulating the ocean budgets of heat, salinity, and nutrients in the SEP. Characterizing, determining, and alleviating the systematic biases of atmosphere-ocean GCMs in the SEP. Elucidating and understanding interactions between the SEP climate and remote climates.

VOCALS Components Airborne NCAR C-130 (and others) Stratocumulus, aerosol SHIP Ron Brown (and others) Ocean eddies, DMS fluxes Modeling CGCM Biases Numerical Predictions VOCALS-REX* * Regional Experiment in the Southeastern Pacific

VOCALS-REX Aircraft: NCAR C130 Ships: 1.NOAA Ron Brown 2.Chilean October 2007

A Predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their Plans and decisions Observations and Analysis Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observation, analysis, and data stewardship. Program Performance objective Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond NOAA Climate Program Strategy and VOCALS Contribution The SEP is woefully unexplored yet it is home to the largest stratus sheet and the longest stretch of upwelling coastline on the planet. The chemistry in the remote SEP is as pristine as it comes and will shed light on the climatological "background" against which all current-day climate forcings are measured. It is the only upwelling region that connects with the tropical oceans and has important ENSO connections. VOCALS addresses not one of these aspects, but several (ocean, atmosphere, chemistry)

A Predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their Plans and decisions Climate Predictions and Projections Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions. Program Performance objective Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond NOAA Climate Program Strategy and VOCALS Contribution How clouds, and especially low clouds, will change in a future climate is highly uncertain. Both physical feedbacks and aerosol effects on clouds are key unresolved problems. Ocean mesoscale variability is poorly understood and parameterized in most coupled GCMs. VOCALS addresses these issues that are key for climate predictions in one of the major upwelling regions.

Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their Plans and decisions A Predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Climate Forcing Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to change in the Earth’s climate. Program Performance objective Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond NOAA Climate Program Strategy and VOCALS Contribution VOCALS focuses on the South Eastern Pacific, where there is evidence that climate forcing is affected by interactions between clouds with aerosol through links between the latter and the macrophysical structure of the former. The VOCALS region is a unique test bed for studying these key aspects of climate forcing because 1) it is home to some of the most stationary cloud systems that are as close to idealized as they come, and 2) sulfur sources are important but few, and there is a strong possibility of an accurate characterization of their production (aerosols, gas phase).

Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their Plans and decisions A Predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Climate and Ecosystems Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. Program Performance objective Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond NOAA Climate Program Strategy and VOCALS Contribution The surface fluxes of precursor gases (DMS and VOCs) grow the aerosols that control cloud properties. (DMS: dimethylsulfide). The supply of DMS and its oxidation mechanisms limit new particle nucleation and growth. To what extent do these processes affect the re-filling of POCs with clouds, and what is the role of iodine, ammonia, and organics? VOCALS/SOLAS addresses the study of this chemistry from both ships and aircraft.

Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their Plans and decisions A Predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions Increase availability of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making Regional Decision Support Program Performance objective Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond NOAA Climate Program Strategy VOCALS will develop a Framework for numerical climate prediction in interannual time scales by coupling global models models of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to regional model of the eastern Tropical Pacific.

EPIC Contributed Directly to NOAA’s Goals in The development of parameterizations, which can eventually be used by NOAA climate/NWP models. The evaluation of NCEP products, leading to their wider usage and improvement, which will eventually feed into CFES. The evaluation/improvements of the Ocean Observing System. The direct NOAA transition to operations, by working jointly with NCEP/EMC, NCEP/CPC, NESDIS/NCDC on models and data.

…however, EPIC… … focused on the equatorial region, while VOCALS expands to the midlatitudes …aimed just to establish crude local climatology for basic tests of model performance in the eastern Tropical Pacific, while VOCALS aims to a much more detail and spatial coverage as well to more processes, etc. For example: EPIC inferred cloud microphysics from radar data, while VOCALS attempts direct estimates by aircraft. EPIC addressed eddy transports in the ocean only indirectly, while VOCALS identifies them as one of the major targets. EPIC examined aerosol - cloud interactions from ship data, while VOCALS does it much more properly by using both aircraft and ship data. EPIC did not include biological effects, while VOCALS has incorporated SOLAS, which specializes in such effects. EPIC did not target directly numerical prediction, while VOCALS aims to develop a new framework for prediction in interannual time scales.

CGCM Problems: NCEP CFS Model (also GFDL, NCAR…) CFS Errors SST Prec CLD The CFS model has significant errors in the SEP There is a meridional shift in ITCZ (top), a warm SST bias (middle) and insufficient stratocumulus cloud cover, (bottom) These errors adversely affect the skill of CFS climate forecasts (ENSO). VOCALS addresses the model developments required to alleviate these systematic CGCM errors

VOCALS aims to develop a Modeling Framework for Interannual Climate Predictions ESMF Infrastructure AGCM: Atmosphere General Circulation Model OGCM: Ocean General Circulation Model AGCM OGCM CAM NCEP GFDL UCLA POP MIT ROMS RAM